New Puck Daddy: Being on the wrong side of a sweep and what a coach can do to turn it around

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Round two of the Stanley Cup Playoffs have been downright weird, bordering on disappointing.  And it’s strange, too, because it’s not like any of the games have been particularly bad (save for the Caps/Lightning first game, IMO), it’s just…. they keep ending with the same guys out in front.

Vigneault says Nucks have eight healthy d right now

Are the Detroit Red Wings really going to get swept by the San Jose Sharks?  I can’t believe what I’m seeing.  There wasn’t a person out there who thought this series wouldn’t see a fifth game, and most were fairly sure it could go the distance.  Good thing I didn’t bet on round two (sorry about that, i’ll go crazy next round) - I had the Red Wings winning, and the series going seven.  Not even close.

Thankfully, we do have the Canucks/Preds series, which resumes tonight.  Nashville is sans Steve Sullivan, which hurts them quite a bit - when your roster isn’t exactly laden with offensive stars, you need all the pieces you can get.  That team is sort of built like a big Jenga tower – with all it’s blocks, it’s big, solid and impressive, but each block you slide out of the base weakens the thing, until eventually you can blow it over.

Hopefully for Preds fans, their building is still strong enough to stand up to a push from the Canucks.  I have a hunch it still is, and for entertainment value, all of us want to see this thing go long.

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So on Wednesday, I wrote for Hockey Primetime that Bruce Boudreau should be fired if the Caps get swept, which they did, and it’s an opinion I still hold. 

Good coach, good guy, but for the Caps, it's time to move on.

On twitter the last couple days, person after person – basically everyone other that Greg Wyshynski and the odd Caps fan – has come out in defense of the guy, saying he shouldn’t be fired.

Look: no team is perfect, and I acknowledge the Caps may have a few (very) minor flaws.  But if it’s good enough to be the best team in the Eastern Conference after 82 games, there are going to be playoff expectations.  Two straight years they failed to come anywhere close to those, not only failing to win the Conference in playoffs, but failing to even advance to the Conference Finals.  FOUR years in a row they’ve won their division and never seen the third round.

Well…..that’ll do, thanks.  Move along.

Saying the guy, for whatever reason, hasn’t been able to get done when it counts is an understatement.

Also keep this in mind: saying the team needs a change, as I have been, is not calling him a bad coach.  It’s not calling him a bad guy, which from all accounts, he decidedly is not.

It’s the simple math that if you’ve tried to jam the square peg in the round hole a bunch of times and it still doesn’t fit, maybe try something different.

I hope for Caps fans a new coach comes in and something clicks there.  The players could use a TSN Turning Point, and a new leader could be just what they’re looking for.

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Here’s a couple personal pics for ya – the first is of Bri and I with her folks at our favourite pub (notice top right above Buck Hunter, my Dad’s Uni – signed to the 27 year old bar owner “to the son I always wanted but never had.”)  Clark brought his jersey to put alongside it – we’re fixing this Boston bar just yet!

The second pic is, of course, Jiggs sleeping.  Which he now does almost exclusively in the guest sink during the day.  Odd little fella.

At Nate's in Chandler

ZZZZZZZZGOAWAYZZZZZ

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Happy Cinco de Mayo!  I’m in Arizona, so it’s sort of a big deal apparently.  I’m in the “not really sure why we’re celebrating, but will take an excuse to have a margarita” camp today.

New Puck Daddy: Undisciplined play from a teams’ leaders can kill a dressing room, also, *cough*Flyers*cough*

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If I may explain today’s Puck Daddy article – I realize Pronger hasn’t played a ton, but he has played three of the last four games, and managed to anger me enough to write that.  After watching his behaviour against Buffalo, followed by his antics in the early part of round two’s first game, I was FURIOUS when he took van Riemsdyk away from the very unthreatening Marchand situation like a wise old vet showin’ the young kid what to do.

The man, the myth, the SOB

Don’t take any penalties kid, they just took one and we don’t want to give up that opportunity!

I was just like….you f***ing hypocrite.

Van Riemsdyk is going to be a star in the league, and what’s he supposed to think after that?  He saw big #20 blow it for him and his teammates twice in the past three games, so what, he’s supposed to respect Pronger’s wishes?  Look up to him, learn from him?  He should’ve slashed Pronger for the condescending “now now, young man” when JVR was just getting his back.

I dunno.  Obviously I know Pronger’s a stud d-man that I’d like to have on my team.  But let’s not act like he’s not a selfish hockey player out there. 

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Today I had to do a two-minute bit for TV, and let me tell you, I did very, very poorly. I need to do that shit more so I don’t get all panicky when I mess up once – I’m tellin’ ya, it was like a trainwreck once it started.  Here’s a rough version of the punchy lil’ monologue, Passing Thoughts on Washington/Tampa, Vancouver/Nashville:

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Nice change, Hannan.

In the Eastern Conference semifinal the Washington Capitals are dangerously near getting knocked out of playoffs with an upset.  And yes, I did cut and paste that sentence from an article I wrote in one of the previous three years. (*modified for print )

Bruce Boudreau said after the game two loss that “Alex Ovechkin wasn’t doing very much,” and that “it’s easy to put a d-man on a forward,” adding that Eric Brewer was doing a good job shutting Ovy down.

To reiterate, ERIC BREWER.

That’s like saying Lebron is having trouble getting to the hoop and dunking because I’M guarding him.

He failed to mention that the Caps powerplay is doing really well, by the Boston Bruins standards (11.1%).  He also missed that Nick Backstrom is having a heck of a playoff run, if he were precisely no one (7GP, 0G, 2A, 2PTS).

Rinne's playing um, okay

In the Western Conference, the Vancouver Canucks are headed to Nashville to play game three after losing game two on home ice in overtime.

If you like fast, offensive games, than this series has been like…..watching neutral zone play in soccer, really. 

But if it’s goaltending you like…..well, then, you’re just weird.

But both goalies have been terrific in this series, giving up a mere two total goals each after two games, with the only difference being that fans in Nashville LOVE Pekka Rinne, where fans in Vancouver LOVE that they have a good backup goalie.

…..They just don’t trust that starter.

It should be a star-studded affair in Music City, with plenty of celebrity cameos – you’ll see Carrie Underwood….you’ll see Vancouver’ Green Men….the only thing you won’t see is Barry Trotz neck.

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 Eh, kinda corny, but it didn’t sound so bad when I recorded myself doing it.  Live….eh, lets not go there.  Anywho, so I’m pulling myself together after that.

I’ll be watchin’ the games ‘n’ tweetin’ tonight.  Follow me here.

New Hockey Primetime: Why we see more fights during the “dog days” of the schedule

New Puck Daddy: Why GM’s looking to rebuild should target prospects, not picks

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Unfortunately, the Washington Capitals/Phoenix Coyotes game didn’t weild a picture of a coach’s card, but it did get me plenty of the Great 8.  Whhhoooo I promptly wrote about being out of shape.

To clarify: his bursts are as fast and exciting as ever, it’s just that after he makes one, you rarely see another in a shift.  That full column is here (just had to go to the article to get the link, 105 comments, jeez).  Just make sure you don’t misunderstand me: dude is as incredible as ever, but given his age, teammates etc, most people expected more this year.

The second phlog (photoblog) of the week!

At the end of every warm-up (apparently), Semin fires a few lazy wristers for Ovy to tip.

Always cool to see the best of the best in person. Just wish he didn't insist on yellow laces.

Said laces, far too visible.

For Ms. Conduct. Bryz isn't used to pucks being behind him.

And we're off!

After a mind-numbing first, something happens!

Brian Engblom's notes.... really nothing comparably interesting to yesterday cheat sheet score, obviously.

Fiddler and Yandle post-win clowning...

And what did you think of that, Jovo?

 Obviously we were less interested in capturing every single thing that happened during the second game with those seats, given that at some point, you gotta watch the action, but still, some of those are pretty cool I think.

Check out my multiple columns if you have time!

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Update, from a comment below – I snapped a BizNasty pic from my phone:

2point0

It’s that time of year – NHL news is at a minimum, and summer fun is at a maximum.  Although, I live in Phoenix, so it’s “winter” here (you don’t go outside for very long if you can avoid it).  I will say this about the heat though – it’s not as bad as people say. 

It was supposedly 115 here last Saturday, and we spent four middle-of-the-day hours floating on tubes down Salt River.  We still sit by the pool periodically.  Basically, if water is involved, you can make it work.

Anyway, the point is that there isn’t much to discuss around the NHL.  I, for one, care zero percent about prospect camps.  I mean, literally, zero.  So, until something relevant comes up (Kovy signing!), lets BS about random, puck-based stuff.

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It's not that he's bad, it's that you're too close to a Cup to accept anything but great.

So, the Flyers Capitals are really going through with the whole “nah, we’re good on a goalie” thing?  To those fans who keep saying Varlamov will get better and will be able to get it done, I ask you – why are you okay with rebuilding at one position?  Do it everywhere or nowhere.  The rest of your team is ready now.  Actually, it’s been ready for two years, both of which you’ve squandered by accepting mediocrity in net. 

Fine, Varlamov is going to be great some day.  So let him back up til that day.  Or trade the potential he (or Neuvirth) has for a decent defender, and sign one of the million quality goaltenders looking for work.  Y’know, so you can try and win that Cup thingy.  This team is ready, if they’d just adresss their very few weaknesses.  If you don’t, you risk becoming the Flyers.

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Do you want Mike Modano to come to your team?  As in, a guy playing the role of third line checker with a goal scorer’s body and a good amount of gray in his beard?  Probably not right?  Yet for some reason, I can see it working under Babcock in Detroit.  And only there.

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Follow this link to read borderline NHLer Paul Bissonette’s hilarious (though somewhat offensive) tweet-binge about how women aren’t as funny as men.  Or as smart.

The tweets remind me of being in a locker room, so you may enjoy them.  Raw stuff.  Feel free to poke around that site too, it belongs to friend of the blog, Callum McCarthy.

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He's got a pretty good life goin...

SPORTS WRITING: As many of you are aware, my favourite sportswriter is Bill Simmons (though, oddly, that’s been waning a bit of late – undoubtedly something to do with him just making podcasts and retro-diaries, AKA lazy stuff).  It’s hard to write 5,000-8,000 words coherently, and this guy composes clear arguments that seem to span the length of entire books.  Unfortunately, Bill rarely covers hockey.

Between Simmons and my favourite hockey writer is a guy who acts as a nice segueway for me here, Bruce Arthur.  I’m a new reader and twitter follower, but from what I’ve taken in thus far, he’s kinda half-hockey half-basketball.  There’s some clever bite in his writing, and the guy seems like a good thinker.

And, as I’ve also mentioned before, my colleague (and general superior) Greg Wyshynski makes the grade as my favourite hockey writer.  Of course, I’m far too involved in hockey to agree with everything anyone says (like I do with Simmons on basketball), but 96.75% of the time, I can get on Greg’s page.  He’s fair, funny, knows WAY too much about players, teams and history, and writes well.  Best of all, he doesn’t take the sport too seriously, like, say, every single writer from the Toronto area.

Today’s post on free agency is great, and includes a line from agents (about their players) that Islanders fans can choke on: “The money was pretty much the same everywhere. Guys were just deciding on where they wanted to play the most,” said one agent.  Hey Isles, nobody’s choosing you for your low house prices and Cup-winning potential.  Might have to go a bit above and beyond matching offers these days.

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I’m convinced Steve Yzerman is gonna be a rockin’ GM.  The Teddy Purcell signing was a nice way to get a good player in on a low salary, something he’s going to have to do since three of his players make something like a combined $25 million.

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The Hockey Greats Fantasy Camp is almost full.  We’re down to about a half-dozen available spots – email me at jtbourne@gmail.com if you’d like to inquire… it’s a once-in-a-lifetime summer vacation.  And when I say that, I don’t just do it as a pitch – I never try to sell my readers a damn thing, am I right?  My name is on this camp, and I’m proud of it.  We see more tears and hugs on the final day than I ever thought possible.  I’d love to have some more readers there (we already have two!)

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Happy Humpday.  Hope it’s a doozy!

Finger pointing and blame. 

It rarely happens immediately or directly after monumental sports failures, instead, it slowly leaks into the tone of the dressing room dissidents as time distances them from the actual collapse.

The first player eliminated in round two to win the Conn Smythe, Jaro Halak.

To their credit, the Capitals endured the interviews following the loss and said the right things.  Really, what are you supposed to say?  You give credit to your opponent, express disbelief at your failure, and try to make some sense of what happened, just moments after it occurred.

“Mrs. Smith, You just found out your husbands leaving you for a younger woman, what went wrong in your marriage?”

But somebody’s to blame.  And we’ll find out who they chose to pin it on with their off season summer moves.  Which starts today.

Hey, maybe they’ll trade for Carey Price.

The Montreal Canadiens – they of the lowest point total in the playoffs (88, 33 less than the high-flying Caps), Kiebler elf forwards, and mid-season goalie controversies – deserve some freakin’ respect for what they just accomplished.  Congrats, fellas.

They played smothering team defense, blocked the shit out of a kabillion shots, and scored just enough goals to win (my favourite point about Marc-Andre Bergeron’s offensive role was a retweet by Bob McKenzie of a Mike Mckenna tweet: “MA Bergeron is like a field goal kicker. Waits on bench til needed (PP). Does his biz, back on bench.”  LOVE that tweet.)

Before I carry on with my look back at the series (and game seven), I’ll get it out of the way: I was wrong (last year I picked the Caps to win in “three” games too – AKA an easy sweep – and they won that one in seven. Yikes).  And further credit-giving: for an upset to happen, you need great goaltending – Halak was obviously the biggest reason this happened. 

Now, what to take from this Capitals loss….

Man down! Team down! City... down!

Washington is the first team I can ever remember watching that’s worse when they try harder. 

In regular season contests where they don’t care to put themselves out too much, they let the puck do the work.  They dish to whichever uber-talented linemate is the most open, and they seem to be entertaining themselves like a cat with string by playing keep-away from their opponent.

This was a totally different Capitals team.  When they needed offense, a huge red flag was the way they switched to “don’t worry, I got this” mode.  To not be able to identify and rectify this problem is a look at the lack of leadership coming from inside that dressing room, which is on both Boudreau and Ovechkin.  If your captain is the first guy opting out of the team’s tic-tac-toe-n-go style that got you this far when the going gets tough, you can’t expect your other young gunners to do anything different than the same thing. 

Ovy is their leader, there’s no doubt about it.  Like it or not.  So when he leads the wrong way – by switching to blinders-on one-man-mode – you’re on the path to a disaster FEMA couldn’t clean up (so, um, your standard disaster, then).

If any good came of this, it’s that the Crosby/Ovechkin debate is over, for at least the next year.  It’s early in Ovechkin’s career, and he can fix this the way Kobe Bryant realized there’s an easier way to win than taking it all on himself.  Ovy may have scored as many round one goals as Sidney (5), but Crosby made every person in a Penguin’s sweater better, tacking NINE assists on to that total. 

I’m a little nervous about how this is going to affect the Great Eight, one of the games most charismatic stars, and a guy who’s clearly getting increasingly agitated with reporters and fans.  There’s been hints of child-star-growing-up style acting out over this season.  God help us if he gets angry and decides to play more physical next year.

All I know is, the Canadiens have no captain, which in this series was better than having one lead them in the wrong direction.

Couple other non-Ovy based thoughts:

*Poor NBC and Versus today.  You know they’re totally blue-balled by the Washington/Pittsburgh series that could have been.  It seemed inevitable.  They were so close.  And then…. c***blocked by Montreal.

Boudreau: "Should I say something? I wanna say something. No, I better not say anything."

*Number 8-seeds beat number 1-seeds in the NHL so often I’m starting to wonder if this is a good thing for the NHL.  Don’t get me wrong - upsets are awesome.  But it halfway voids my interest in the regular season.  2-seed, 4-seed, 6-seed, whatever, just get in.  The best teams are still the best teams regardless where they finish, and this year they came into the playoffs as an Eastern Conference 4-seed, and a Western Conference 5-seed.

Can you imagine when the Sharks and Capitals are going at it for the Presidents Trophy next year (Sharks won’t be, but whatever) how little you’ll care?  I need a job here, so I’ll pretend it’s “an epic finish for the one seed” or whatever hyperbole I’ll write, but whatever.  JUST MAKE PLAYOFFS!

*I’ve mentioned before, the best coach I’ve ever had was Davis Payne, for his ability to make in-game adjustments.  I’ve lost a playoff series with a different coach because we “weren’t worried about them” and stuck to a “our game plan”, which was, incidentally, horrible.  Boudreau…. did you just maybe kinda possibly get (badly) out-coached?

*And last, the obligatory Semin comment:  He’s a 40-goal guy who played like a complete bag of marshmallows in playoffs.  How has that regular-season-stud-stuff panned out for San Jose?  The Capitals NEED a goalie, the way Philly has been good enough to contend for a Cup but has refused to acknowledge their goaltending deficiency for the past decade.  Bye-bye Semin, hello legitimate starting goalie.  Make that trade.  This team has more than enough offense to win.  You should be able to get a legit starter for less than what you pay Semin, so put that towards re-signing Backstrom.

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And just like that, on to round two, my friends of the blog.  Awesome stuff. 

I went 5-3 in round one predictions, which is a well-below-average performance.  I’ll try to get series previews up ASAP, and I’ll try not to embarrass myself this time!

The Phoenix Coyotes are done.

They pushed the two-time defending conference champion Detroit Red Wings to the brink before petering out in game seven, effectively losing to the conference’s one seed dressed as a five.

Sadly, game seven looked like the last lap of a 1500 meter Olympic race, where the leader came out of the gate sprinting instead of pacing himself.  There was simply nothing left in the Coyotes tank.

Detroit took it to them for the majority of the game, starting from a Martin Hanzal penalty early in the first, and carrying on until Nicklas Lidstrom’s second goal, for which he immediately looked sincerely apologetic. 

Positives were few and far between for the home squad.  One, was that it might have been the best performance from a goalie who gave up six goals I’ve ever seen.  The Wings were just relentless, and as you expect from a proven team, just when they needed to get it done they got big performances from their stars.

GeeDubGee

Datsyuk looked unflappable.  Captain Nick Lidstrom sniped a pair.  Even some sasquatch named Bodd Tertuzzi or something scored.  When the core of a team who’s won the Cup once and the conference twice in the last two playoffs has the switch flipped to “on”, you expect it to look like that 6-1 win did.  (I found myself cursing the Coyotes for beating LA and Nashville down the stretch… wait for playoffs!  Dress your back-ups back-up!  LET GRETZKY COACH.)

The Coyotes were missing Shane Doan, arguably the biggest cog in their team-first machine.  With him in the lineup, who’s to say how momentum changes?  Doan played like a man possessed when he was in the lineup, which would undeniably affected Detroits older d-corp over a long series.  It could have been one more straw on the back of Detroits camel (what?).

Oh we're so totally gonna hug right now.

Between the pipes, there’s only one play I’m pinning on the Almighty Bryz – Brad Stuart’s goal, which was Detroits fourth, scored in the period’s dying seconds, HAS to be stopped.  I realize it’s a breakaway and a tough save, but great goalies come up big in big moments, and that fourth goal was a twist of the knife in Phoenix’s side.  And it was Brad Stuart half-falling, not Pavel Datsyuk opening up before pulling it cross-crease.  Phoenix needed a save there, and when they didn’t get it, I would’ve flipped to a different game had one been on.

At the other end, Jimmy Howard made 32 saves in a one (bad) goal against performance.  If you’re like me, you didn’t feel fully comfortable that he would play well in there (the same way Luongo makes me feel).  And though he did play well (great at times), he had the luxury of not facing any tough shots until his team was up about three goals.  Not taking anything away from the guy (who again, 1.00 G.A. in his first game seven, rookie year), but it’s a little easier to play when the team in front of you looks like they put in a pre-game cheat code.

So that’s where it ends for this year’s Cinderella story.  The carriage is a pumpkin again, but good will come of this, Coyotes fans.  You guys got your team “back”, a lot of attention, and plenty of hope for the future.  And Wojtek Wolski!

(I’m writing a more thorough analysis for a column I’ve pitched to the AZ Republic as a bookend to my pre-season column.  I’ll keep you posted on that)

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As we move closer to round two’s start, I’ve been thinking about a comment the blog received yesterday (totally random thought before I forget – blog hits have been killer for a non-team-specific site.  Almost 9,000 hits last week or something like that, so thanks so much for your support.  And that includes you crazy Maple Leaf fans sent this way via DownGoesBrown).  It’s a valid point on why predictions are interesting to read – basically, it’s fun to assess what’s fair to expect, not what will happen.  The comment is towards the bottom, by reader “Brett”.  Check it out here.

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Mini preview, Capitals Habs:

Here’s what’s “fair to expect” tonight.

Underdogs often succeed by outworking the superior club that’s trying to get by on talent alone.  And thus far, Washington has tried to get by on talent alone.

Now it’s like the Capitals are in the library working on a bonus credit project they need just to pass at the end of the semester, while their friends are out drinking because their semester is over.  Had the Caps just done the work in the first place, they wouldn’t be in this situation.  (*author may or may not be able to relate to this)

Halak's eyes are on Ovy.

Anyways, if work ethic is equal, which it should be in a game seven, the Capitals will smoke the Habs like salmon, the same way Detroit showed who they really were when the chips were down.

The Caps, for all the unnecessary abuse they take {and they do take abuse, it’s crazy.  I’m no Caps fan, but it’s like old school hockey people are annoyed that they have the gall to think they can win playing a tic-tac-toe style over a (*coughslightly-more-Canadian*cough) boom-bam-hit-and-jam playoff style}, the Capitals have won some playoff games with this team. 

Their style is money.  If they had half a goalie, they’d be unstoppable (I guess Theodore is small enough to qualify for half).  For all of you that want less concussions and more skill, cheer for teams like the Capitals that apparently have a team-imposed “everyone touch it before we shoot” rule.  Something about their style reminds me of ultimate frisbee.

Halak looked unbeatable in game six, but that had to be a tiring night.  Players always have trouble falling asleep after high-intensity games - more on that in the future, it’s awful.  So he gets a short sleep, hops on a plane, maybe touches the ice once in two days before tonights game, and tries to give a repeat performance.  But if (no no, when), the Caps generate another 40-50 shots (money on the higher number there), I can’t see him doing it again unless he’s in crazy good shape.  Hey, maybe Price’s start will end up helping him in this series after all. 

Montreal has one thing Phoenix didn’t – a couple guys who can make game-breaking plays.  Cammalleri (and even Gomez if he blacks out) can do it.

Montreal’s best hope is to challenge Washington’s shaky goaltending and offense-first defenseman in the first period (after weathering the initial storm), and see if they can’t get one more out of a jello-legged Halak.  Cause you never know.  You never know.

But sometimes, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect.

5-2 Capitals.

The Washington Capitals chucked 54 shots on Jaroslav Halak, and scored once.  Which can be frustrating.

As a forward, playing a goalie who’s kinda on fire is a funny situation to be in.  And not so much “haha” funny as much as “this milk smells funny”.  What are you supposed to do?

A common problem is that as a team, you’re usually too busy patting yourself on the back for generating so many shots to realize it’s time to switch game plans (but you hope your coach isn’t).  I mean, something has to go in eventually, right?  You think you’re really taking it to your opponent.  You think you’ll break him sooner or later if you just keep it up.  Throw it on net, throw it on net, throw it on net.  But there’s something different in the mindset between trying to score and just trying to get shots, which is all dumb coaches think they want you to do (see also: “shooooooot”-yelling fans). 

In these situations, the scorer’s mindset needs to be all about “getting to the foul line”.  As in, the type of shots you need to take on a piping hot Halak aren’t three pointers or give and go’s.  Remember, if you’re Washington, giving up three pointers is YOUR goalies specialty.  You have to recognize he’s on fire and get dirty.  You need to be on the glass, getting rebounds, banging by the hoop, and putting yourself in situations where even if you don’t score, somebody has to hack you to stop you.

If the tendy can battle through that for the rest of the game and hold on, hey, sometimes you just lose to a guy who’s on top of his game.  Also, in this situation, you may want to approach your teammate Alex Semin and see if he can take a few minutes out of his day to take his head out of his own ass.  Just, y’know, as a personal favour to you.

Clearly, I underrated Montreal (overrated Washington?) when I predicted this series would be over in three.  Halak and Cammalleri are two of the playoffs top performers so far (I’ve been suuuper impressed with Cammalleri’s shot – can’t say I watched a lot of Habs games this year), but I’m still not in the “Montreal is good” camp, or the “Montreal has a chance in game seven” boat.  But hey, they’re doing their thing, so “big ups” to them.

Last thing on this series: what a great diving call on Laperriere last game.  As a perennial Lady Byng style player (yeah yeah, nothing to be proud of), that sort of thing drives me bonkers, because I can’t imagine trying to do that.  I can’t even crawl inside the guy’s head to see what that skeezy thought process must be like.  It’s just another reason to love golfers who call penalties on themselves, isn’t it?  What a rat.

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Okay, so I ate shit on predictions yesterday.  One for three.  Buuut, you can’t stop me from making more.  I’m like a weatherman.

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I was gonna bash it, but I think I like it – I’m gonna start using the phrase “after the jump” like every current writer.  More on that after the jump.

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Just kidding, I’m not talking about it more.

So! 

The Bruins beat the Sabres.  Here’s why the Bruins might actually not be that bad:

Boston was a top seed last year. 

And the B's go on...

Okay, they lost Phil Kessel and, um, Chuck Kobasew, but their young studs like Krejci, Bergeron, Lucic and Wheeler all have an extra year of NHL experience. Your offense isn’t that different.

Contrary to what Detroit fans would have you believe, it was Boston who “led” the NHL in man games lost to injury this year.  We didn’t see a whole lot of healthy Marc Savard this year, and the guy happens to be one of the leagues premier goal scorers.

Their goaltending actually got better.  Tuuuuukkkka Rask played over half the games in Boston this year, and led the league in GAA and save percentage (1.97 and .931%).

Maybe they’re not a top seed, but they way they played down the stretch made you forget that maybe they can be good.  It’s crazy that they made round two after how they looked at times this year.  I desperately need Montreal to get eliminated, so teams don’t think it’s possible to be THAT BAD in the last few weeks of the year and still make the second round.  Wait, Philly already did that too?  Damn.

*****

Detroit and Phoenix play game seven tonight in Glendale.  Can’t wait!

Predictions are the most ridiculous thing I have to do in my line of work.  People who write about sports for a living shouldn’t be rewarded for their ability to predict the future, but rather for their ability to cover the past.

But whatever, it’s fun to do anyways, so put on your seatbelt.  There’s some more tough calls to be made.

In reality, there are only five legitimate Stanley Cup hopefuls:

Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals
Chicago Blackhawks
Detroit Red Wings
San Jose Sharks

Quick thoughts on each club:

Penguins:  The Penguins are an all-around solid team.  Good at every position, play as a unit, and have proven they can do it.  Plus they have some Cindy kid or something I heard about somewhere.  And didn’t some guy on their team win the Conn Smythe recently?

Capitals:  A one-dimensional offensive juggernaut that is so strong at it’s one dimension, they don’t look so bad in other areas.  If the other team never has the puck, you don’t have to play defense.  A nice perk.

Blackhawks: Grossly talented, huge fans of riding shirtless in limos - you almost get the impression that it’s leaders (Toews and Kane, mainly) are so young they don’t even realize the pressure.  Naturally, this makes them twice as dangerous, like how baby scorpions are more venemous than the big daddy’s.

Red Wings:  What’s talented, gritty and experienced all over?  Datsyuk and Zetterberg are disgustingly good, and they’re up for the Selke every year since they lead the league in take-aways.  So nothing special, just good D, nice grit, good goaltending and great coaching.

Sharks:  The big line they rely on to win doesn’t play with any youthful pep.  What they do do, is put skill and smarts in front of quality goaltending and get the job done.  Assuming the job they were trying to get done is making the playoffs.

So!  To the results show:

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

CHICAGO vs. DETROIT

This series makes me nervous to even think about, there’s so much talent on the ice.  Did you see game 82, where Detroit had to win to get the fifth seed?  Teams like Edmonton and Toronto were watching that on TV going, “man, someday I’d like to play in that league.”

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

PITTSBURGH vs. NEW JERSEY

What sucks about the East is, Pittsburgh puked away the TV dream of a conference finals with Washington by placing fourth.  What they almost certainly did do, is guarantee us getting to see that series in the second round of playoffs.

The Pittsburgh/Washington series is kind of a crapshoot.  It went seven games last year, and if both teams are healthy, it very well could go that far again this year.  One of these two teams will be missing guys by then, and the healthier team will prevail.  If they’re both healthy… what’s changed from last year?  Knuble and Leopold?  Not all that much.

For the two and three seeded Buffalo and New Jersey, it means that one of them gets to prove they were the real deal this year by earning the right to lose to Pittsburgh in the conference finals.  Quite an honor.  How bout that gift of a bracket?  Buffalo, Boston, Philly and New Jersey.  Anyone’s guess.

STANLEY CUP FINALS

PITTSBURGH vs. HOLY CRAP I HAVE NO IDEA WHO WOULD WIN THE SERIES BEFORE WOULD BRIAN CAMPBELL BE BACK DOES HOWARD WITHSTAND THE PLAYOFF PRESSURE I BETTER PICK SOMEONE LET’S GO WITH….. DETROIT!

Pittsburgh/Detroit, huh Bourne?  Way to take it out on a limb this year.

You want a limb?  Fine, here goes….

….AND THE WINNER IS…

THE PENGUINS!  NO WAIT!  THE RED WINGS!  NONO, PENGUINS!

THIS IS WHY THE PLAYOFFS ARE FUN, PEOPLE.

In all seriousness.  Ahem.  I choose:

The Pittsburgh Penguins. Sorry about the boring answer.  I’d love to see the Hawks or someone win.

Hey, the Isles dynasty was built on a core group of dudes who knew how to win.  I see a formula here (ignore the fact that Detroit has it too, and now that they have solid goaltending, are a much better model of the old Islanders).  Whatever, I had to pick someone, and Detroit is the more likely to lose in round one.  I’m taking Pittsburgh.  Good luck to all!

Washington Capitals (1)

vs.

Montreal Canadiens (8)

For whatever reason, I don’t like many teams that wear red.  For example, there’s just about nothing I want to watch less than a New Jersey/Carolina series, as attested by my coverage of said series in last year’s playoffs (blatant refusal).  To make those games worse, I feel like there’s just something grinding about watching the actual colour red play red.  Anyone feel me on that? (Mmm, aesthetically soothing Canucks colours…)

First round bye, weee!

For some reason, this red vs. red battle doesn’t bother me quite so much.  Like most hockey fans, I love to watch Washington.  And Montreal, though a puny little excuse for a Washington challenger, is kinda fun to watch this year too (fun like those tiny toy cars “Hot Wheels” were as a kid).

The only way Washington’s round one series had any hope of being interesting this year was if Philly had the eight seed.  It would’ve been awesome watching Carter and Richards going buck-crazy, being playoff performers out there, scoring goals….. and still losing by football scores, like 21-14.  Thatta been great.

Not much to say here, except the obvious: Washington just has way too much firepower to lose.  If the Canadiens give them so much as a scare, I fear for Washington when they play a better team.  I rate Montreal’s chances, as a percentage, at beat-it-dont-even-try.4%

PREDICTION: CAPITALS in THREE

*****

New Jersey Devils (2)

vs.

Philadelphia Flyers (7)

I think this was a tough card for New Jersey to pull, simply because I can’t believe how badly the Flyers have underachieved this year.  I mean, 88 points, in the East?  How is that possible, with their roster?  Before the season, I noticed that their back end had good transition/powerplay guys such as Pronger, Timmonen and Carle, and I remember thinking “crap, they’re gonna score a ton of goals this year.”

Combine that with with some of the games best forwards: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Danny Briere and crew (Claude Giroux is no slouch. Hell, Van Riemsdyk is sick too.), and Philly has a wonderful hockey team.

So what the hell is going on there?

Dollar says he scored.

Riiiighht, goaltending, right.  I’ve seen this play before.

On the other side of the coin, I was completely surprised by New Jersey’s record this year.  Any time you have Brodeur in net, your team can’t be bad – but past him, I didn’t see a reason for them to have much success.  I knew Parise and Zajac were great, but then what? (That, and I kinda figured Elias and Langenbrunner were past their best-before dates…. guess not).  I kept waiting for this team to trip, but it never happened.

With the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk, the Devils finally have that dynamic offensive punch you always felt that they lacked in the past.  It gives them two really solid lines (though they admit they can’t find a spot for Kovy that clicks), and combined with Brodeur, it’s become pretty clear that their season wasn’t a fluke.

{I have to point this out for the millionth time – can you BELIEVE that Kovalchuk is 230 pounds?  I’d have been off by 60 if you had made me guess two months ago.}

But looking at their D -  Andy Greene, Mike Mottau, Bryce Salvador, Colin White, Paul Martin, Mark Fraser, Martin Skoula and Anssi Salmela.  I dunno… it doesn’t feel very Cup contender-y.  They have, however, done a great job at keeping pucks out of their net this year (y’know, first-in-the-league-good, at 191 over 82 games – 2.32 per), but something about them makes me nervous.  ….And it probably has something to with NJ’s (okay, Marty’s) meltdown in the final minute of game seven against Carolina last year.

If you put the leagues most average goalie in the Flyers net - say, Dwayne Roloson – I think I’d pick them to win this series.  I like their roster that much more.  But Parise, Zajac and Kovalchuk shooting on Boucher makes it a dicey situation.

In the end, New Jersey has done too good of a job defensively to lose their first playoff series, where defense and goaltending are emphasized.  I think they’ll see round two, but barely.

PREDICTION: DEVILS in SEVEN

*****

Buffalo Sabres (3)

vs.

Boston Bruins (6)

If I were the Buffalo Sabres, I would be pissed at how the final playoff seeds ended up falling.  They (like New Jersey) were so close to getting to play an obviously worse team like the Rangers or Thrashers.  But noooo, Boston and Philly had to get their shit together at the last second, and squeak in.

Shot! Save. Shot! Save. Shot! F**K!

This sucks, you see, because Boston and Philly aren’t as horrible as they desperately tried to convince us all they were this year.

One of the few guys pushing Ryan Miller for the Vezina this year is Boston’s Tuuka Rask.  Combine that solid goaltending with Buffalo’s Phoenix-like offense (three lines of second line forwards = good team/not great), and we may see some low scoring games – especially when you consider that Buffalo has the league’s best goaltender, and Boston can’t score (206 goals all year, good for second-to-dead-last).

But, every time you think a series is going to be a defensive suck-fest, it ends up amazing.  Using that logic, this could be a thrilling, high-scoring series.  The only people I care to see play are the goalies.  I’m not saying Derek Roy and David Krejci aren’t exceptional hockey players, I’m saying that nobody is circling dates on their calendar to see them when they come to town.

I see Boston being the better team in this series, bringing the play to Buffalo, shooting, skating, hitting, exhausting themselves, and Ryan Miller chucking up the frustrating stone wall.  Then I see the Sabres working hard and smart, capitalizing on a few nice plays, (maybe a powerplay or two?), and winning games by scores like 3-2 and 2-1.  They probably win a couple of the - oh, let’s say three – games that go to overtime.

I really wanted to pick an upset here – and the Sabres and Devils are definitely both on my “upset watch” list.  But Ryan Miller is the best goalie in the world today, and that counts for something in playoffs.  I’m siding with him.

PREDICTION: SABRES IN SEVEN

*****

Pittsburgh Penguins (4)

vs.

Ottawa Senators (5)

Congratulations, Ottawa.  You finished ahead of the slovenly pack of droolers in the East.  You stayed out of the “who’s gonna make playoffs” fracas.  And in the process, you convinced me that you’re actually a good team.  I was wrong about you.

Strike a pose

The bad news is, you’re basically about as lucky as the Coyotes in the West.

Had Pittsburgh caught New Jersey, as they should have, you’d be playing Jersey instead.  And I like your odds there.

What I don’t like, for you, is going up against the defending Stanley Cup champs, who are healthy, and about to flip it into “game on” mode.  You’re toast.

The Penguins probably slow-played their hand a little bit too much this year.  Didn’t do enough to grab the really high seed that guarantees they get to coast through round one.  Over the long haul of playoffs, having to play a good Senators team to start things off is really going to grind on them physically.

But as far as this series goes, Pittsburgh is still Pittsburgh.  Between last years Cup champion team and this year, they cut off a couple guys that were acting as anchors, and picked up depth assets in guys like Jordan Leopold and Alexi Ponikarovsky.  You take a team that’s won the cup and make them better?  They don’t lose round one.

PREDICTION: PENGUINS in FIVE

*****

So that’s all she wrote for round one, folks!  I’ll keep a running total of how my predictions went as we go (though I won’t follow how many games it took to get it done – that’s really just there to demonstrate how confident I am in the winner I picked). 

GAME ONE OF M***********G PLAYOFFS STARTS TONIGHT!

THROW.    THE.    SNAKE.

ITS MASTERS WEEEEEEEK!

And every other great sports week.  Let’s dive in:

The twenty-team BBHL (Bourne’s Blog fantasy Hockey League) is down to two, and somehow, someway, I’m still alive (didn’t expect to add that to my BWE {best week ever}), did ya?  And that’s with Carey Price as one of my two goalies.  Yeesh. 

I’ll admit, I got muchos lucky in the semi-finals – drew the guy who wasn’t paying attention enough to start the right guys or even have a chat (read: make a bet), but I’ll take it.  Also, if you’re the dude who wasn’t paying attention, you have no chance of being invited back into the league next year (…without heavy bribery).

But whatever, I’m still happy.  On to the finals!

*****

Le Tigre has a press conference at 11:00 a.m. my time (2 EST) – I’m not going to live blog it, mostly cause I have other stuff I’m supposed to be doing (like, um, my job), but still, expect a tweet barrage.  Expect that all week, really.  I predict Tigs to announce Dr. Drew as his new caddy.

*****

The funniest thing George Lopez does is call himself a comedian.  Sorry, I had to get that out of my system.  Back to being positive…

*****

Sick camera angle.

The Detroit Red Wings are only two points out of fifth in the West, just behind the Nashville Predators – If they catch them, Phoenix plays them in round one, which would but about as lucky as Ben Stiller in Meet The Parents (that poor guy just can’t catch a break!). 

 …..Oh god I just checked the schedule… Phoenix plays Nashville on Wednesday.  Who’s Phoenix’s ECHL affiliate?  Can they call those guys up?  Can I sign a one day deal to help them lose?  Can we dress reader “zyllyx”?  Make the Coyotes wear rollerblades?  SOMETHING?!?

*****

The worst thing to happen to the Washington Capitals Stanley Cup hopes is drawing the Flyers in round one, which as it stands right now, they would.

If it’s Boston or Montreal (Montreal especially), they’ll breeze through that first round.  Philly, unfortunately for the Caps, plays a bit of a physical game, and is suffering from the frustration of earning the awful moniker ”best team that never gets it done” in the East (maybe the league – San Jose has had a couple playoff collapses, but the Flyers have been legit contenders for a decade and never got it done).  It’d suck (for them) to have their dangly skill team to face a group of hungry, aggressive dudes.

*****

I got the right guy in the picture.... right?

This whole “Henrik Sedin leading the league” thing is pretty awesome.

Nobody in the league has chemistry like him and his brother, as evidenced by his highlight reel.  When you watch Sid or Ovy’s, for the most part, you get the miraculous one man rushes, nifty moves, clever dekes and the lightning shots.

Henrik’s reel is far more impressive from the “utilizing your teammates” standpoint.  He fires behind-the-back no-lookers that end up directly resulting in goals.  Not neat “almosts” or plays that guys go to the bench and say “that woulda been awesome”, but tape to tape, spinning, no look, tap in goals.  They (Daniel and Henrik) almost never have to shoot the puck through a goalie, since they can just dish it around him.

Very impressive stuff.

*****

THE MASTERRRRRSSSSSSS!

The par three tournament is tomorrow, the press conferences are today, my orgasm is Sunday and the tournament starts Thursday.

For last years list of “Why I Love The Masters“, follow that link – that was puked out stream-of-consciouness style, so I’m sure I could add even more to it. 

Expect Tiger to start slow, but be a threat if he can find a way to make the cut (even when he’s been active, his first round at the Masters is his worst, with a stroke average above 72 on day one).  I’m pumped!  I’ll be live blogging it Sunday from one of those Cover It Live things if you want to watch it with me!

Predictions coming Wednesday.

*****

What a way to start the baseball season – with a Yankees loss (in Fenway).  Ahhh, spring.  Inhale, exhale that loss…. smells fresh.  Go Mets!

*****

My buddy Nick gets to my place tonight, so I don’t expect a lot of double blog entries, even though this is the ultimate week for it.  But, like I said, expect the tweet barrage.  You’ll be hearing from me!  (Go RIT!)