Isles Playoff Hopes “KO’ed”, Stanley Cup Betting Odds

We’re postponing today’s scheduled mind-dump for one fun thing and a second not-so-fun thing. 

Fun thing: checking out the NHL’s Stanley Cup Betting Odds

Not-so-fun thing: discussing the Islanders injury problems.  Yes, before the season starts.

Before we get to that though, I had a friend of the blog write me and say he feels like he’s missing a lot of my best stuff because (A) I don’t update the headers at the top of my blog, like, ever, and (B) If I link to my daily article, it’s all the way at the bottom of the blog.  So basically, my (lazy) solution is that from now on, as soon as you open a blog, the first thing you’ll see will be my column from that day.  For today, they’re right here:

The Hockey News: The Isles Need To Buy Tavares Someone On His Offensive Level To Play With

USA Today: Pre-season predictions (and the jinx goes too……)

and later…

Puck Daddy: The Evolution of Coaching

*****

Let’s get the Islanders tear-fest over with to start….

Fuck.  Are you kidding me?  The Islanders have lost both of their assistant captains to major shoulder surgeries before the puck has even dropped on game one.

Mark Streit is out FOR THE YEAR on this piddly, every day scrimmage bump from 30 goal scorer Matt Moulson:

(It’s at the start of the video)

…and Kyle Okposo is listed as “out indefinitely” with his own shoulder deal.  Not sure what happened to him, but this is extremely bad news - temporary reasons aside, when you start having shoulder problems that young, it can be a lonnngggg career full of recurring injuries.  My buddy (and country music star, buy his album!) Chad Brownlee pretty much hung them up because his shoulders were such a wreck.

Opo wore the stupid bubble in college

Honestly, I’m heart-broken by those two injuries for two reasons:

One, I harboured real hopes that Islanders could be sneaky good this year, like Phoenix last year.  They were looking like a team coming into their own, with some nice pieces in place.  I was even thinking they could sneak into playoffs if they could just get some breaks.  By “breaks,” I didn’t mean limbs.

And two, because the team just isn’t deep enough to lose their only all-star from last year (Streit), as well as a guy (Okposo) who was on the fast track to becoming one of the top all-around effective forwards in the league.  I mean, to be that strong and talented, that young?  He’s my fave guy on Long Island right now, so I’m super bummed about him going on IR.  I seriously thought he was going to have a stat-splosion in 2010-11.

I just don’t see any way the team can maintain playoff hopes if Kyle is out for an extended period of time, unless Snow gets aggressive and tries to patch the holes.

One more thing, before we move on – in quick defense of my Hockey News piece today, about which I got some heat from a couple Islanders fans:  If you read my piece, you’ll see that I asked for an addition (help for Tavares), and made no mention of subtractions (THE REBUILD! THA REEEBBUIILLLLDDDD!).  Nowhere in there do I suggest we trade any of the core guys from The Rebuild (there’s some fat to trim at the bottom of the roster still, I promise).

Pending: face-off play or make-out session?

The Penguins were horrible and “rebuilt,” but if you remember it took some acquisitions to put them over the top.  They didn’t exactly draft Sergei Gonchar.  If Isles fans recall, Matt Moulson wasn’t a draft pick either – they signed him because they thought he could contribute offensively (and boy did he ever).  You need these additions to make your rebuild complete.

Stamkos had studs to work with on his line, and that inflated his stats – Martin St. Louis drew coverage and made plays that created opportunity for Stamkos.  My point is, right now Tavares is making plays and creating opportunities for Moulson and other linemates.  The Isles need someone to do that for him if he hopes to develop into the offensive juggarnaut we all know he can be.

And as for the “but who’s available?” question: There were plenty of players they Isles missed out on this summer by being cheap, which inspired the column.  The help doesn’t have to come immediately (though after the KO thing, it feels more pressing), but whether that means cashing in at the deadline by trading picks (we have enough “potential” already) , or signing players next summer, John Tavares can’t be a one-man show in circus tent of hopefuls for much longer.

*****

The following are the odds in Vegas (courtesy Vegas Insider.com, hat-tip to reader Andrew) on teams to win the 2011 Stanley Cup.  Lets discuss.

From his email:

“Aren’t the Caps and Pens at 6:1 just a horrible bet? If the Pens didn’t improve greatly over the summer, I’m not sure I like them at 20:1. (Bourne: Yup, anyone at 6:1 just isn’t worth your gamble)
Isn’t any team at 6:1 (save for the Oilers in the 80s and your dad’s teams in the 70s) a horrible bet? (Oops, you were going to say that, I see)
 
I like Boston at 18:1 and Philly at 14:1 and Buffalo in a long-shot at 30:1 .” (I like Boston more than Philly – better goaltending, better odds.  No reason to believe Buffalo will be better than last year, is there?)

Great email, thanks.

Off the top, I gotta say, I don’t like any of these bets, since I feel like the rewards are too low.  You kiddin’ me?  I NAIL a  $20 pre-season prediction on the Roberto Luongo and the Canucks overcoming the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals and 24 other teams, and you give me $240 bucks back, a $220 profit?  Eat me.  You should get 50-1 odds on something like that, minimum.

But for the fun of discussing it, here are my thoughts: The three best and worst bets, as a balance of chance-to-win versus getting-a-worthwhile-payout.

Best Bets: 

New Jersey at 15-1
Tampa Bay at 35-1
St. Louis at 45-1 (but LA is 18-1?)

Worst Bets:

San Jose at 12-1 (fourth best team in their conference)
Montreal at 25-1 (possibly the worst bet you could make)
Florida at 80-1 (dead money)

What do you think?

The Front Nine (Sports Thoughts)

Before we begin, a video: The very second Tracy Porter makes the interception and runs it back for a touchdown, everyone knows the game is over.  Take a couple second gander at how this bar in New Orleans felt about that:

Um, they were excited.

*****

Alrighty – my TBAF (To Blog About Files) are stuffed full.  It’s time to play 18 holes – nine today, nine tomorrow.  Let’s tee off:

#1) 

Charging is defined as taking more than three strides (or maybe it’s two, whatever) before hitting a guy.  The problem with that definition is, IT’S HOCKEY.  You’re taking strides to get everywhere.  When a hit becomes available, you’ve been taking strides, so the question becomes… How long do you have to coast to nullify a charge?  If you’re hustling on the backcheck, and some guy starts to cut to the middle, how are you supposed to skate to legally be able to separate the man from the puck?  I think we need to make charging more about intent than about a physical description of the play.

Affectionately known as "Snatch". Seriously. Like, the radio guy calls him that on air.

#2) 

For the first time this season, I checked out some ECHL stats yesterday, and was pleasantly surprised.  Turns out my boy Ryan Kinasewich is leading the league in points, which is awesome.  It’s the guys sixth ECHL year, and he’s got a million ECHL points, but I guess AHL teams are like… Nope, he just scores too consistently, it’s really annoying.  He wasn’t drafted.  He doesn’t fit our mold of ”big and young.”  I just checked – he’s played 264 ECHL games over six seasons, with 362 points (156 goals, 32 so far this year).  He’s still only 26.

#3)

I haven’t gotten around to doing the research yet, but I think it’s a fair question to discuss:  I haven’t seen Ilya Kovalchuk play much (like the rest of you), but everyone loves to spout that he’s a defensive liability.  I’ve looked for it in the past few games, and haven’t seen it. 

He’s a career -84 or so, but has played on mostly bad Atlanta teams, playing the other teams top line or top shutdown line.  From personal experience, I can tell you the team and line you’re on makes all the difference in that category, and it’s only fair to judge a player’s +/- against those teammates.  What was Atlanta’s even strength goal differential while he was there, -400?  No way someone that big and talented can be as bad as I keep hearing on D.  I’m just not buying it.

Far too one-handable.

#4)

No league does a championship trophy like the NHL.  Are you shitting me, Stanley Cup?  How perfect are you?  All tall like that, with a nice weighty feel (I’m told).  It’s a substantial prize worth hoisting over your head.  And with all the mystique around touching it, and the keeper of the cup in white gloves, it just makes a guy think: the NFL should be ashamed of itself.  This is America.  Bigger is better, right EntireCountry?  That’s your damn sport.  Now go build a better goddamn trophy and do the name Lombardi some justice!

#5)

Brooks Orpik (Pittsburgh) and Andrew Macdonald (New York Islanders) look so much alike it’s bizarre.  I will continue hammering this point home until I get an amen.

Fine, maybe these pics don’t do it perfect justice, but just wait til A-Mac lets it get stubbly.  It’s boggling.  The only reason I’m not making “twin” claims is that A-Mac doesn’t do that prolonged, distant stare that Orpik favors.  Thankfully.

Goal and an apple vs. STL

 #6)

For forwards, playing well without getting points sucks.  Your point total from a given game rarely tell the story of how you played, so it sucks when you make all the right decisions and don’t get rewarded.  Stastny finally got a couple points last night, but he’s been playing better than his production.

 #7)

A few nights back, I was watching a Red Wings game in which Bertuzzi snapped his head back to fake getting high-sticked (a move I didn’t think people actually did without some level of contact).  He successfully drew the penalty (even “checked” for blood!), putting the Wings dangerous powerplay unit on the ice.  A day later, I saw Alexander Semin to something similar. 

So my question is:  if we suspend players when they do something we don’t want in the game (cheap hits), why shouldn’t we suspend players for that play, in obvious circumstances?  They’re cheating, and we want that out of the game, right?  I’m not talking embellishments.  I mean, “dude, that stick never got above your logo”.  I’m talking about sitting beside Bertuzzi and watching the play with him and going, “Look – you intentionally tried to fuck over the refs and the legitimacy of the game there.  We don’t need 10 year olds in the NHL.  Go sit in the corner for a few nights and think about what you’ve done.”

#8)

Bob Gainey stepped down.  As DownGoesBrown tweeted “Gainey “voluntarily” stepped down the way I “voluntarily” leave the bar after the bouncer tells me he’s kicking me out”.  Thought that was the best analogy EVER.

Yeahh-eya-eyaeya, it's a party in the USA.

#9)

I want a golfer to write a tell-all book. And nothing to do with Tiger.  I just imagine it’s such an interesting lifestyle.  Do some guys fly private planes, and some fly coach?  There must be such a discrepancy between the quality of life for the top and bottom golfers.  Who “makes it rain”, who’s a cheap prick (Ben Crane right?  Has to be Ben Crane), who are the A-holes (Phil?  Really?  FIGJAM!), who’s a drunk (Anthony Kim, eh?), all that stuff.  I need to know!

*****

So there you have it!  The front nine ended on a golf topic.  Chime in on what you know about, want to know about, or just type some words into the comment box.  We’re a big happy sports (okay, largely hockey) discussion site.  Dive in.