Buy and Sell: Some NHL Teams As Stocks

Snap back to reality, and just like that, the multicolored rings, skin-tight lycra and Giant Inflatable Beavers are a thing of the past.  Last night, the puck dropped on Colorado – Detroit, and some very important points changed hands.

Before last nights NHL game, I was seriously contemplating putting a chunk of money down on Detroit, but simply don’t have a large chunk of it, which makes putting it somewhere kinda difficult.

I once heard that the NHL, gambling-wise, is the most predictable of the major sports.  That is to say that, for the most part, the good teams are usually the good teams, and Columbus will flouder in perpetuity.  I almost made that bet, because there’s still some inevitable leveling that needs to happen for the NHL season to get back to normal, and two teams played last night that moved in the directions they’re probably going in the second half.

And that’s no knock on Colorado – I believe in them a lot more than a few of the other surprise teams – it’s a testament to Detroit’s being-Detroit-ness, and having too much team to miss the playoffs.  Combine that with the now-healthy/running-out-of-time factor, and picking against the Wings (who have a rested goalie) down the stretch is madness.

Here’s five teams (as stocks), and I’ll letcha know what to do with your money!

Detroit:

As I just mentioned, they’re decent.  Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Fransen, Tomas Holmstrom, Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom, Nick Kronwall and the discovery of Jimmy Howard are the oh-so obvious reasons why (oh, and that Babcock guy).  They haven’t been healthy, and haven’t had a chance to be “them” yet.  BUY!  BUY!

Phoenix

I wrote an article at the start of the year for the Arizona Republic trying to defend the fans lack of attendance here.  My defense for them was, the team has sucked, sucks and will suck (you can teach English as a second language using that sentence, PS).  It turns out that that wasn’t a very smart angle to take upon moving to Phoenix, as it’s made getting credentialed in the press box a skosh harder, only made worse by the fact that I was horribly, horribly wrong.

So to take the angle I’m about to take is not something I want to do.  It’s just…. look, Coyotes fans:  Your roster has to catch up to you eventually, but that’s not a good argument for you because you love your roster.  Try this on: your d-corps is playing over their heads out of this world (leading the NHL in goals by d-men, really?).  They’ve done great up ’til now.  But Anaheim is about to get a bunch better.  Detroit is too.  So is St. Louis.  Then you’ve got San Jose, Chicago and the rest of the conference to contend with.

The problem?  11 of your last 15 games are on the road (I want to say nine in a row at one point).  I’m not sure how far I expect the fall, but it’s definitely out of home ice advantage.  So sorry, sell. (NOT LITERALLY, BALSILLIE, PUT YOUR WALLET DOWN!).

Anaheim

As Hiller showed with the Swiss in the Olympics, he’s the real deal.  Anaheim did a great thing in committing to him.  What they haven’t done great this year, is win.  I’m sure last year the system of finish eighth then reveal your true colours isn’t exactly the game plan, so I think we’ll see them revealved a little sooner this year.  San Jose is praying I’m wrong – they see the potential 7/8 seeds as Detroit/Anaheim and are already packing for an early summer.  Buy yourself a little bitta Duckstock.

St. Louis

Since Davis Payne’s arrival, St.Louis has been 11 – 8 – 3, not exactly setting the world on fire.  But any team that’s leaning on a foundation of David Backes, TJ Oshie, Eric Johnson and an under-achieving goalie can get itself righted.  They’re young guys, for sure, but they’re gaining experience and confidence as they go, so buy, BUY, BUY!

Buffalo

Down the stretch, I’m less trusting of the teams that have blown expectations out of the water, because there’s a reason people didn’t pick them to finish that high in the first place (looking at their roster, how can they be this good?).  People knew Ryan Miller was good, but “world’s best” good?  They may falter because they use this guy for not just a crutch, but a walker with tennis balls on the front to slide around on.  (Would you rather finish fourth with a burned-out Miller, or sixth/seventh with a rested one?  They should let him chill down the stretch a bit).  Miller has, in the past, started much better than he’s finished, because he’s a slight guy who gets overplayed and worn down.  Look for reality to set in a bit for the Sabres, sell!

Worth Mentioning:

I think the Kovalchuk trade was huge for the Devils – I’d be picking them to drop without that move.  But there’s another reason why it’s tough to pick them to drop:   The bottom half of the Eastern Conference is horrible.  Just horrible.  Atlanta, Florida, Carolina…. there’s just too many free wins for the boys at the top to pick teams like NJ to drop.

I’d mention the Isles as a team headed south if there hadn’t already set up permanent residence there (Hey, Ricky’s hurt!) ….2-8 in their last ten (horrible prediction – the Isles finish in the bottom five, get crazy lucky and win the draft lottery, then a few months later trade some sparklingly talented kid for draft picks cause they don’t actually want to have to pay too many good players). 

As for penny-stock moves, I think you’ll see Tampa Bay and Toronto finish the season stronger than the first two-thirds.

So there ya have it!  Where am I a horrible idiot (Jim Cramer from Mad Money), and where am I an awesome genius (Justin Bourne from Bourne’s Blog)?

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Tomorrow I’ll be live blogging trade deadline day with the team at Hockey Primetime.com (here, on my blog), from like 9:30 a.m. (EST) til forever.  I’ll be on a few radio shows.  I’ll be texting my friends that play for dirt.  Come by and say hi!

The Perfect Salary Loophole

In an attempt to postpone the slow but steady journey from hockey player to fat cynical writer, I’ve given these so-called “Perfect Pushups” a try.  I gotta believe any product with “perfect” in it’s name is probably not the most reliable item to exchange legal tender for, but c’mon…  that guy on the box is jacked.

Anywho, they’re money.  They really are.  They better be, cause it’s shirt-off weather in Phoenix about 13 months a year, and I need to make some changes.  Apparently, a day of writing burns roughly four calories, and that sack of chocolate covered pretzels I just humbled contained a number similar to the national debt.

Moving on.

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How about those shade-ball owners in the NHL abusing the salary cap loophole?  I mean, come on.  For the Flyers to claim with a straight face that they think Chris Pronger has seven good playing years left is pretty feeble, isn’t it?  He’s got the operating speed and mobility of an early 90′s desktop computer, and they didn’t think it was just a little too obvious that they were trying to circumvent the salary cap?  I’ve seen more subtlety in Andrew Dice Clay jokes. 

Pleasedon'tmakemecrossover, pleasedon'tmakemecrossover...

For the uninformed, here’s a quick rundown of how and why you’re seeing massively long contracts:

NHL teams have a salary cap of $56.8 million for the 2009-2010 season.  The cap hit that each player costs is simple: the dollar total of their contract, divided by the amount of years.

Thus, in the case of Marion Hossa and Chris Pronger, they were signed to long term deals where they make the league minimum in the last few years, so the teams yearly cap hit comes down.  For example, Hossa signed for 12 years, roughly 60 million dollars.  But, he actually makes nearly 8 mill a season for the first seven years, then peanuts for the last five.  Instead of taking an eight million dollar cap hit (which is what they’re paying him), his contract works out to a five million dollar hit (60/12=5), so they Hawks are free to spend more money.

And now, an outside firm has been hired to figure out if the teams were intentionally signing guys to contracts that they weren’t actually going to play out.  Apparently, they’ve called the Hardy Boys, Sherlock Holmes, and the Scooby-Doo crew to crack this difficult case.  Pronger, $525,000 (league minimum) at 40?  Noooo, I’m sure he intends to play, right?

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Everytime I think about writing a book (which is becoming more often), this clip brings me back down to earth with a laugh.  Then I make a martini.

 ”

Ahhhh, crap that’s funny.

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So, our first celebs arrive tomorrow to hang out for a day or two before our Hockey Greats Camp starts, and I’ve got good news:  I will be blogging.  I’d be a fool not to.  Last year one of these guys told my Egyptian friend he looks like a half-chewed caramel.  These guys are a gold mine for material.

Over the  next day or two, the following is the group of gents we’ve enlisted to help make our camp a success (chosen on a formula of what great guys they are times how good they were):  Dave Semenko, Bryan Trottier, Steve Shutt, Billy Smith, Gary Nylund, Clark Gillies, Doug Bodger, Dale Hawerchuk, Ron Flockhart, Cliff Ronning and Larry Melnyk.  27 Stanley Cups between em.  Not bad.

I’ll be tweeting the frequent gems that stumble out of these guys booze-holes as the week goes on.

(Last year, the same tale was rehashed a half dozen times: A player gets beat when an opponent - frequently cited as being Pierre Laroche -- puts the puck between his feet and goes in to score.  After getting berated by his coach, the player says “Gee, I guess I shoulda kept my legs closed” to which the coach responds “No, your mother shoulda“.)

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And last, one more thing - Brianna gets here on Tuesday, marking the start of “NeverApartEverAgain time”.  Married men, pour one out for me.  Looking forward to it, honey!