We’re postponing today’s scheduled mind-dump for one fun thing and a second not-so-fun thing. 

Fun thing: checking out the NHL’s Stanley Cup Betting Odds

Not-so-fun thing: discussing the Islanders injury problems.  Yes, before the season starts.

Before we get to that though, I had a friend of the blog write me and say he feels like he’s missing a lot of my best stuff because (A) I don’t update the headers at the top of my blog, like, ever, and (B) If I link to my daily article, it’s all the way at the bottom of the blog.  So basically, my (lazy) solution is that from now on, as soon as you open a blog, the first thing you’ll see will be my column from that day.  For today, they’re right here:

The Hockey News: The Isles Need To Buy Tavares Someone On His Offensive Level To Play With

USA Today: Pre-season predictions (and the jinx goes too……)

and later…

Puck Daddy: The Evolution of Coaching

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Let’s get the Islanders tear-fest over with to start….

Fuck.  Are you kidding me?  The Islanders have lost both of their assistant captains to major shoulder surgeries before the puck has even dropped on game one.

Mark Streit is out FOR THE YEAR on this piddly, every day scrimmage bump from 30 goal scorer Matt Moulson:

(It’s at the start of the video)

…and Kyle Okposo is listed as “out indefinitely” with his own shoulder deal.  Not sure what happened to him, but this is extremely bad news - temporary reasons aside, when you start having shoulder problems that young, it can be a lonnngggg career full of recurring injuries.  My buddy (and country music star, buy his album!) Chad Brownlee pretty much hung them up because his shoulders were such a wreck.

Opo wore the stupid bubble in college

Honestly, I’m heart-broken by those two injuries for two reasons:

One, I harboured real hopes that Islanders could be sneaky good this year, like Phoenix last year.  They were looking like a team coming into their own, with some nice pieces in place.  I was even thinking they could sneak into playoffs if they could just get some breaks.  By “breaks,” I didn’t mean limbs.

And two, because the team just isn’t deep enough to lose their only all-star from last year (Streit), as well as a guy (Okposo) who was on the fast track to becoming one of the top all-around effective forwards in the league.  I mean, to be that strong and talented, that young?  He’s my fave guy on Long Island right now, so I’m super bummed about him going on IR.  I seriously thought he was going to have a stat-splosion in 2010-11.

I just don’t see any way the team can maintain playoff hopes if Kyle is out for an extended period of time, unless Snow gets aggressive and tries to patch the holes.

One more thing, before we move on – in quick defense of my Hockey News piece today, about which I got some heat from a couple Islanders fans:  If you read my piece, you’ll see that I asked for an addition (help for Tavares), and made no mention of subtractions (THE REBUILD! THA REEEBBUIILLLLDDDD!).  Nowhere in there do I suggest we trade any of the core guys from The Rebuild (there’s some fat to trim at the bottom of the roster still, I promise).

Pending: face-off play or make-out session?

The Penguins were horrible and “rebuilt,” but if you remember it took some acquisitions to put them over the top.  They didn’t exactly draft Sergei Gonchar.  If Isles fans recall, Matt Moulson wasn’t a draft pick either – they signed him because they thought he could contribute offensively (and boy did he ever).  You need these additions to make your rebuild complete.

Stamkos had studs to work with on his line, and that inflated his stats – Martin St. Louis drew coverage and made plays that created opportunity for Stamkos.  My point is, right now Tavares is making plays and creating opportunities for Moulson and other linemates.  The Isles need someone to do that for him if he hopes to develop into the offensive juggarnaut we all know he can be.

And as for the “but who’s available?” question: There were plenty of players they Isles missed out on this summer by being cheap, which inspired the column.  The help doesn’t have to come immediately (though after the KO thing, it feels more pressing), but whether that means cashing in at the deadline by trading picks (we have enough “potential” already) , or signing players next summer, John Tavares can’t be a one-man show in circus tent of hopefuls for much longer.

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The following are the odds in Vegas (courtesy Vegas Insider.com, hat-tip to reader Andrew) on teams to win the 2011 Stanley Cup.  Lets discuss.

From his email:

“Aren’t the Caps and Pens at 6:1 just a horrible bet? If the Pens didn’t improve greatly over the summer, I’m not sure I like them at 20:1. (Bourne: Yup, anyone at 6:1 just isn’t worth your gamble)
Isn’t any team at 6:1 (save for the Oilers in the 80s and your dad’s teams in the 70s) a horrible bet? (Oops, you were going to say that, I see)
 
I like Boston at 18:1 and Philly at 14:1 and Buffalo in a long-shot at 30:1 .” (I like Boston more than Philly – better goaltending, better odds.  No reason to believe Buffalo will be better than last year, is there?)

Great email, thanks.

Off the top, I gotta say, I don’t like any of these bets, since I feel like the rewards are too low.  You kiddin’ me?  I NAIL a  $20 pre-season prediction on the Roberto Luongo and the Canucks overcoming the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals and 24 other teams, and you give me $240 bucks back, a $220 profit?  Eat me.  You should get 50-1 odds on something like that, minimum.

But for the fun of discussing it, here are my thoughts: The three best and worst bets, as a balance of chance-to-win versus getting-a-worthwhile-payout.

Best Bets: 

New Jersey at 15-1
Tampa Bay at 35-1
St. Louis at 45-1 (but LA is 18-1?)

Worst Bets:

San Jose at 12-1 (fourth best team in their conference)
Montreal at 25-1 (possibly the worst bet you could make)
Florida at 80-1 (dead money)

What do you think?

Too much going on to FJM Lambert’s Links today, so I’ll do that tomorrow.  Let’s dive right in:

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The Islanders top pick, Nino Niederreiter, saw his entire line get drafted in the first two rounds of the 2010 NHL Draft.  I’m pumped about the pick for the Isles.  Still, I wanted to get down my thoughts on being part of a deadly trio like that:

Playing on a stacked line inflates your stats like whoa. 

Really excited about this pick.

If you’re on a dominant line where all three guys are capable of creating, right off the bat you grab a disgusting amount of second assists that you can’t get if you’re Rick Nash-ing it all year.  Puck possession time goes through the roof, and thus, so do chances.  Your linemates can create opportunities for you where other players wouldn’t normally get them.

In reality, it’s the top guys on the line that are helping our the lesser one, and Nino is clearly one of the top dogs (Jonathan Cheechoo wasn’t driving up Joe Thornton’s assist total, Joe Thornton wasw driving up Cheechoo’s goal total). 

My point is that it’s worth asking about the third linemate that got drafted – what would his VORP be? (I love the term VORP, baseball’s “value over replacement player” – as in, if you put the most average player in the league in that spot, with that ice time, etc, how much better is this kid than that average one?  All that much?). 

Keep in mind, I know nothing about the line, any of their names, or who the third guy picked is, I’m just saying – it’s always worth looking into where good numbers come from.  Could that kid that got drafted last (still first round) carry his own line?  Maybe the Isles’ Nino is a Thornton-esque star-maker.

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The recent rumours, as I’m sure you’ve heard, have Marc Savard waiving his no-trade clause and heading to Toronto.  Which is so f**king bizarre I don’t even know where to start.

A budding Leaf?

First, the guy just took a bit of a pay cut so he could retire as a Bruin.  On his long-term deal, this 80-90 point center is only a $4 million cap hit (less than Keith Ballard, apparently).  Why would they trade him?

If it’s to dump salary, the story goes that they’d want a pick or two and a young prospect.  As in, someone they’d have to pay at least a little bit.  So maybe after they give that guy (Kulemin, Bozak?) a couple million a year, they’ve saved a mere two million to stab a guy in the back, get a worse player, bum out the fans…. and keep paying Tim Thomas $5 mill.  There’s no other way to save that money?

If it’s concussion risk, it’s not really a risk to your payroll.  If he gets another one, he goes on long-term IR, insurance pays him and he comes off the cap (as noted by @downgoesbrown).  You can re-spend that money if that’s a bridge that needs to be crossed. 

And hey – the guy took less money to play for your team.  That has to be worth some level of loyalty, no?

Here’s my somewhat-relatable story:  My rookie year in the ECHL, I made the all-star team and spent three months in the AHL.  At the time, I made a pro-rated $45,000 when I was in the AHL, $650 a week in the ECHL.

The next season, the Isles offered me another NHL tryout, and the same contract.  I figured I was worth at least a few pennies more after proving myself in year one, so I had a decision to make.  I decided to sign a one-way ECHL contract for the team with the highest number of AHL call-ups, the Reading Royals, and go to whichever A team needed me the most (instead of limiting myself to four RW spots in Bridgeport, this let me have a crack at 120 around the league).

Problem was, Reading was packed with kids like me who knew they were a hotbed for call-ups.  Thus, they said they really wanted me to be a part of their team, but that I’d have to accept less money because of all the talented kids they’ve signed who’re trying to move up as well.  Could I work with them on that? 

Of course, the goal is to move up, not get rich immediately (bllllllogging!), so I accepted $600 a week, hoping it wouldn’t be for long.  They also got me an AHL tryout in Hershey.

On day two of the AHL tryout, I was protecting the puck, got hit, and my skate caught a rut – my leg planted while I moved, and my MCL tore.  I went to Reading to rehab it and tried to be ready for opening night in the ECHL.  I literally didn’t skate for a month, and got “cleared” (“no, it doesn’t hurt”) to get on the ice the day before the first game.

I played sparingly and poorly in that first game (hadn’t skated/run in a month).  We lost.  The Maple Leafs signed guys and sent others down.  A trickle down happened.  So Reading traded me to Idaho, one game into the season.  After I signed for far, far less to be there (I had declined two $800 a week offers during the summer, as well as some decent European options).

Suddenly, after comprimising for them, I was making less than I was worth, in a city I didn’t choose, and one that rarely saw kids called up to anywhere but their AHL affiliate…. who I wasn’t under contract with. 

Not sure how I got stuck in #17, but man does that number suck.

This is Mark Savard.  Compromise to play where you want to, and to help a team out, and have it backfire. 

And, coincidentally, this is why you can’t be mad when players make money-first decisions - you gotta get that money.  Teams don’t owe you anything; it really is a business.  When I shattered my jaw in Idaho, I didn’t hear from their coach for over a month, until I showed up at the rink one day.  If I couldn’t play, I was of no use to them.

So make that money when you can, man, make that money.  Toronto could be the real winner here.  I feel like Savard is in a “if she doesn’t realize how great a guy you are, you don’t need her anyway” relationship.

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I don’t have enough time to address Kirill Kabanov, the rest of the Islanders draft, or Keith Ballard today, so here are my thoughts: Love Crazinov, NYI draft was awesome, need more details on the Ballard to Vancouver thing (as in, what else are the Canucks doing on the blueline?).

Lets have a good week team.  Goooo free agency/Canada Day Thursday!

Anyone else say that at the start of every month for luck?  I’m gonna say my family’s been doing it for like, 15 years – the earlier you say it on the 1st, the better the luck that month.

Also, throwing perfectly good money into a well is good luck.  Mutated clovers are too.  Totally makes sense.

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Speaking of luck – with a little of it, could you see Calgary or St. Louis sneaking ahead of Colorado for eighth in the Western Conference?

Yeesssssss you could.

Colorado’s remaining six games see them play the Flames head-to-head once (tomorrow!  Ooo), the Sharks, the Blackhawks, the Kings, the Canucks and a freebie against the Oilers (or is it?!).

They’re up two points on the Flamers (with a game-in-hand… at-hand?), so for conversation sake, lets say Calgary beats them tomorrow.  They’d both have 89 points, and I could see Colorado being below .500 in those last five games, since, y’know, four of the five teams are ahead of them in the standings.

Weee, winning is fun!

Calgary, admittedly, doesn’t have a much easier schedule – Blackhawks, Sharks, Wild, Canucks – but all they’d have to do down the stretch is win three to catch the Avs.  Exciting stuff.

I’ve included the Blues in the hunt too – six points out with six games to go, largely because they seem to be turning it around, and you never know.  After winning three straight, they’re schedule includes games versus the Predators, the Stars, Blue Jackets, Ducks and Blackhawks.  Five wins isn’t completely impossible, and might be enough to get it done, if the two teams ahead of them act like it’s the Eastern Conference.

So here’s to a great finish out West!

As for the East….

All I’m wondering is, “the Isles are three points up on the Maple Laffs, and play Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Pittsburgh to end the season.  Could they fall far enough to steal the increased lottery odds?”

A fair question, no?

I think they can, only cause the Laffs can’t do ANYTHING right this year.

On a more relevant note, Boston, Montreal and Philadelphia all have 82 points while the Thrashers have 80 and the Rangers have 78.  What a mess (congrats to Tampa for being 3-7 in its last ten, taking the title of “biggest blown opportunity” away from the Rangers at the last second).

Montreal has one less game left, but a joke of a schedule coming home (After the Flyers they have the Islanders, Hurricanes, Maple Leafs and an SPHL team, I think).

So wait… Boston/Montreal won’t be a 1-8 or 2-7 matchup this year?  But it’s always like that….

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The NHL’s biggest “I can’t believe that guy doesn’t wear a visor” has to be Ruslan Fedetenko, right?  Baby face, happy guy, plays a skill game, seems afraid, gets hurt (but not injured) a lot….  Everytime I see him I’m surprised.  Who else is on this list?

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The NHL’s biggest “numbers-inflating roster spot” has to be A) Alex Burrows spot with the Sedins  B) Steve Downie’s spot with St. Louis/Stamkos line  or C)  ???  Whatchu got?  (Getting to wear a Capitals jersey?)

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The guy pumping it out in the picture below (Nick Lowe) is here for a golf weekend, then a few days at my place.  You may remember his picture from a previous blog.  In this pic, he just tied the game up with minutes left – I score on the next shift to beat North Dakota (that years version of the Sioux had Toews, Stafford, Smaby, Zajac, Oshie, Brian Lee, and was goaltended by Lamoureux or Jordan Parise), the weekend my Dad was in Alaska.  Special times.

Solid one-knee pump.

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Snap back to reality, and just like that, the multicolored rings, skin-tight lycra and Giant Inflatable Beavers are a thing of the past.  Last night, the puck dropped on Colorado – Detroit, and some very important points changed hands.

Before last nights NHL game, I was seriously contemplating putting a chunk of money down on Detroit, but simply don’t have a large chunk of it, which makes putting it somewhere kinda difficult.

I once heard that the NHL, gambling-wise, is the most predictable of the major sports.  That is to say that, for the most part, the good teams are usually the good teams, and Columbus will flouder in perpetuity.  I almost made that bet, because there’s still some inevitable leveling that needs to happen for the NHL season to get back to normal, and two teams played last night that moved in the directions they’re probably going in the second half.

And that’s no knock on Colorado – I believe in them a lot more than a few of the other surprise teams – it’s a testament to Detroit’s being-Detroit-ness, and having too much team to miss the playoffs.  Combine that with the now-healthy/running-out-of-time factor, and picking against the Wings (who have a rested goalie) down the stretch is madness.

Here’s five teams (as stocks), and I’ll letcha know what to do with your money!

Detroit:

As I just mentioned, they’re decent.  Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Fransen, Tomas Holmstrom, Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom, Nick Kronwall and the discovery of Jimmy Howard are the oh-so obvious reasons why (oh, and that Babcock guy).  They haven’t been healthy, and haven’t had a chance to be “them” yet.  BUY!  BUY!

Phoenix

I wrote an article at the start of the year for the Arizona Republic trying to defend the fans lack of attendance here.  My defense for them was, the team has sucked, sucks and will suck (you can teach English as a second language using that sentence, PS).  It turns out that that wasn’t a very smart angle to take upon moving to Phoenix, as it’s made getting credentialed in the press box a skosh harder, only made worse by the fact that I was horribly, horribly wrong.

So to take the angle I’m about to take is not something I want to do.  It’s just…. look, Coyotes fans:  Your roster has to catch up to you eventually, but that’s not a good argument for you because you love your roster.  Try this on: your d-corps is playing over their heads out of this world (leading the NHL in goals by d-men, really?).  They’ve done great up ’til now.  But Anaheim is about to get a bunch better.  Detroit is too.  So is St. Louis.  Then you’ve got San Jose, Chicago and the rest of the conference to contend with.

The problem?  11 of your last 15 games are on the road (I want to say nine in a row at one point).  I’m not sure how far I expect the fall, but it’s definitely out of home ice advantage.  So sorry, sell. (NOT LITERALLY, BALSILLIE, PUT YOUR WALLET DOWN!).

Anaheim

As Hiller showed with the Swiss in the Olympics, he’s the real deal.  Anaheim did a great thing in committing to him.  What they haven’t done great this year, is win.  I’m sure last year the system of finish eighth then reveal your true colours isn’t exactly the game plan, so I think we’ll see them revealved a little sooner this year.  San Jose is praying I’m wrong – they see the potential 7/8 seeds as Detroit/Anaheim and are already packing for an early summer.  Buy yourself a little bitta Duckstock.

St. Louis

Since Davis Payne’s arrival, St.Louis has been 11 – 8 – 3, not exactly setting the world on fire.  But any team that’s leaning on a foundation of David Backes, TJ Oshie, Eric Johnson and an under-achieving goalie can get itself righted.  They’re young guys, for sure, but they’re gaining experience and confidence as they go, so buy, BUY, BUY!

Buffalo

Down the stretch, I’m less trusting of the teams that have blown expectations out of the water, because there’s a reason people didn’t pick them to finish that high in the first place (looking at their roster, how can they be this good?).  People knew Ryan Miller was good, but “world’s best” good?  They may falter because they use this guy for not just a crutch, but a walker with tennis balls on the front to slide around on.  (Would you rather finish fourth with a burned-out Miller, or sixth/seventh with a rested one?  They should let him chill down the stretch a bit).  Miller has, in the past, started much better than he’s finished, because he’s a slight guy who gets overplayed and worn down.  Look for reality to set in a bit for the Sabres, sell!

Worth Mentioning:

I think the Kovalchuk trade was huge for the Devils – I’d be picking them to drop without that move.  But there’s another reason why it’s tough to pick them to drop:   The bottom half of the Eastern Conference is horrible.  Just horrible.  Atlanta, Florida, Carolina…. there’s just too many free wins for the boys at the top to pick teams like NJ to drop.

I’d mention the Isles as a team headed south if there hadn’t already set up permanent residence there (Hey, Ricky’s hurt!) ….2-8 in their last ten (horrible prediction – the Isles finish in the bottom five, get crazy lucky and win the draft lottery, then a few months later trade some sparklingly talented kid for draft picks cause they don’t actually want to have to pay too many good players). 

As for penny-stock moves, I think you’ll see Tampa Bay and Toronto finish the season stronger than the first two-thirds.

So there ya have it!  Where am I a horrible idiot (Jim Cramer from Mad Money), and where am I an awesome genius (Justin Bourne from Bourne’s Blog)?

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Tomorrow I’ll be live blogging trade deadline day with the team at Hockey Primetime.com (here, on my blog), from like 9:30 a.m. (EST) til forever.  I’ll be on a few radio shows.  I’ll be texting my friends that play for dirt.  Come by and say hi!

Bear with me, hockey fans… In my last blog, I made a couple football predictions – I said the Colts would beat the Jets 24 – 17 with a late pick thrown by Sanzchez:  Colts beat the Jets 30 – 17 with a late pick thrown by Sanchez.  I also said the Saints would win on a late field goal, 31 – 30:  The Saints won on a late field goal, 31 – 28.  Damn.  I should make this a football blog.

Now that my back has been sufficiently patted, I’ll move on.

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Dennis Wideman, a member of my fantasy hockey team, was minus three when he got hit in the face with a puck last night.  He celebrated by returning and moving to minus four.  I’m celebrating by publicly chastising him on my blog.  Dennis Wideman sucks.

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Spots 6 – 13 in the Eastern Conference standings are separated by three points right now (55 points to 52 points), with the Senators in 5th, ahead of the pack by five points (60).  Unfortunately for Ottawa, they could be on the wrong side of the line come playoffs. 

If we bring them into the mix, because lets face it, they are in the mix, that means there’s nine teams vying for four spots.  Here’s the who’s out/who’s in predictions, according to my dumb self:

5th, Ottawa Senators, 53 games played, 60 points

As I just alluded to, I don’t like the Sens team this year.  They’ve got one of the best lines in the NHL with Spezza and Alfredsson, but that’s really the only leg they’ve got to stand on.  Mediocre goaltending, suspect D, and just not enough firepower to get it done (also, they have to play essentially shorthanded when Kovalev is on the ice notgivingafuck for a living).  They’ll be in the battle for the eight spot in April.

6th, Philadelphia Flyers, 51 games played, 55 points

Didn’t I just write about them being a scary low seed?  Apparently they made a push.  Philly is definitely one of the teams who’ll stick, and with the return of Emery, I think they’re looking at the five seed, just high enough to “upset” a then-staggering Buffalo or New Jersey.

7th, New York Rangers, 52 games played, 55 points

I remember thinking the Rangers would finally be one of the leagues top teams this year, but with Torterella proving himself to be more of a yeller/motivator than a guy focused on strategy and keeping his team level, I’m not sure what to think.  I can see them getting into playoffs as a seven seed, and, anytime you have a legitimate goaltender in playoffs, you’re going to stress out your opponent.  Maybe they can pull it together by then.

8th, Montreal Canadiens, 53 games played, 55 points

I’m calling them “in”, but if I’m wrong anywhere, it’s here.  I think we knew they’d be a team fighting for a playoff spot this year, so every night matters.  That means they need to stay healthy to squeak in – either way, the Capitals are going to ROLL OVER them if they earn this spot.

9th, Boston Bruins, 51 games played, 54 points

The Bruins will make the playoffs, probably as a six seed, and why not: proven goaltending, some good d-men including shut-down defender and Norris winner Zdeno Chara, and enough pieces up front (when healthy) to put the puck in the net.

10th, New York Islanders, 52 games played, 54 points

My Isles need to fight tooth-and-nail to win every possible point on every possible night, cause it’s a long-shot.  Coaching and goaltending are keeping them afloat right now, so two things have to happen down the stretch for them to have any hope (barring trading for Kovalchuk or someone else substantial):  The d-corps will have to play way over their collective head (after Streit, their D are basically all 5th/6th d-men on most teams), and the young guns (Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Moulson) need to find some way to keep/improve their pace as the point-getting gets tougher after Christmas….  It always does.  Here’s to hoping!

11th, Florida Panthers, 52 games played, 53 points

Losing David Booth buried the Panthers this year.  They’ve actually got a pretty squad over there – not many teams can afford to have a 30 goal guy miss the season (while banking six million of your teams money), especially not perennial strugglers like Florida.  Their hopes hinge on him returning sooner than later.

12th, Atlanta Thrashers, 51 games played, 52 points

Only Carolina and Toronto give up more goals than the Thrashers, and they’re talking about trading the major cog in their offensive machine in Ilya Kovalchuk.  They need Kari Lehtonen to be who he can be ASAP if they’re to have any hope.  Which they don’t have much of.

13th, Tampa Bay Lightning, 51 games played, 52 points

Tampa’s a good team.  I mentioned my “Tocchet is a bad coach” theory before, and after a little roster evaluation, I’m even more certain of this.  Lecavalier, St. Louis, Ryan Malone, Stamkos, and Tanguay can all play, while they’ve got some good role players, average d-men and good goaltending.  I see them battling for that 8th spot with Ottawa and Montreal come April.

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That’s all folks!  Agree?  Disagree?  Let’s hear it!

So, I’m sure I’m not alone in periodically liking (or disliking) something for reasons that are unbeknownst to even myself.  When the Islanders hired Scott Gordon, a guy I’d never heard of, I liked it, but wasn’t sure why.  Let me try to explain it to myself:

Part owner of a "waste management" company in Jersey?

Some owners hire coaches to give their fans the impression they hired a good coach.  You know, a guy with a name, something that won’t cause a huge negative ruckus.  This means you end up recycling coaches based on fame, not success, and before you know it, Mike Keenan is running your franchise.

I’d love to see more coaches with lower level success work their way up the ladder.  Mike Babcock didn’t get the Red Wings job based on his days as a player, he got it cause he won with every damn team he coached.  I think the game today is well-suited for a young coach who understands the more free-wheeling NHL (hint: defense-first is still your focus), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the hiring trend in this direction continue (again, St. Louis hiring Davis Payne was exceptional – he’s doesn’t have Babcock’s NHL success yet, but I believe he’s got the same ability).

So good for teams that hire Davis Paynes and Scott Gordons – if Tampa Bay would do the same, they’d find out real fast what sort of team they’re actually dealing with.

Islanders are in a playoff spot in the middle of January, Rick DiPietro just got a shutout, and a 19 year old is leading the team in scoring.  And the Red Wings are currently in 9th in the West.  AND THE COYOTES ARE TIED FOR HOME ICE ADVANTAGE AT FOURTH.  I’m dizzy.  I need to sit down.

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I doubt many of you watch much ECHL hockey.  So far this year, I’ve watched zero minutes and no seconds, so I know where you’re coming from.

Well, the Victoria Salmon Kings (real name) scored a goal so ridiculous it ran on ESPN SportCenter yesterday.  Yeah, it’s that good.

The goal made me think two things – one, that at that level, there are a few kids that are going to be legit NHL studs mixed in with a few who’re going to be legit rec league duds (though not many, you’d be surprised at the quality).  What that means is, occasionally, someone gets burned so bad they should be forced to take their gear off and quit.  If that were the case, the Islanders Andrew Macdonald would’ve put entire teams into retirement during his months in Utah.

Secondly, it made me shudder at the sound of their goal song.  I was twice on teams that eliminated Victoria from playoffs, but when you’re on the wrong end of a game there, and that crowd gets fired up, it’s real easy to post a plus/minus that looks like Tiger got hot at The Masters. 

Oh, minus five, good hustle Bourne.

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Really, Dwayne Johnson… “The Tooth Fairy”?  I guess we can finally start calling him “The Rock Bottom”.

Goddamn.

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I watched the Golden (Halle Berry’s) Globes on Sunday night, and thought it might be worth mentioning that I, like pretty much everyone else, love me some Ricky Gervais.  That guy is money.  Also, Halle Berry continues to defy human aging laws.  ———->

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Puck Daddy wrote an interesting bit on Mike Richards battle with the media.  The guy is the perfect captain for that team o’ douches. 

Here’s what sucks about how fun it is hating them: if they can get some GD goaltending (I feel like I’ve written that before), wouldn’t you not want your highly rated team to play them in the first round of playoffs?  If I’m Buffalo or New Jersey, I’m praying the Isles or Panthers sneak in.  I’d be interested to see the betting lines on them come playoffs, they might make for a sneaky round one money-maker.

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That’s all for today!  Sorry no Monday post – I was super busy watching FIVE STRAIGHT HOURS of Dexter with Bri. 

Today, I learned that my beliked hometown Phoenix Coyotes really, really didn’t appreciate the pre-season article I wrote on them.  And in turn, they really, really don’t appreciate me.

I’ll admit, today’s blog is late because of frustration.  This is the fourth time I’ve started today’s entry, and I’ve decided to just keep it light as usual.  I’m going to do my best to win my way back into their good graces.  It’s probably worth mentioning that the facilities in Glendale are spectacular, the Westgate shopping area is scintillating, the Coyotes are Cup-contenders and I’m heading out to buy a jersey. 

And that Shane Doan is super handsome!

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Here’s a fun story:

I’m trying out for the New York Islanders in Moncton, New Brunswick.  It’s our first intrasquad game, and my team is pretty decent.  I’m on a line with Jason Gregoire (who I suspect Isles fans will know in a matter of years) and Tyler Haskins, a potential grinder-with-skill that could easily replace, say, Sean Bergenheim in a matter of…. hours.

Early in the game, the puck gets dumped in deep, and I get on my horse to make sure I finish my check.  Head up, I notice that the defenseman going back on the puck is 6’6″ Andy Sutton, who has the common sense to move the puck quickly and effeciently, as a good NHL d-man should do.

Being the hustle-pot tryout kid that I was, I continued on to finish my check a few Mississippis later than necessary, and bounced off Sutton like someone threw a rock at a trampoline.

I head back to back-check, and their team dumps it in.

As the right winger, I hustle back to my wall to get my skates below the hash-marks, open up and provide an option for my defenseman (and friend and future roomate) Jordy Hart who has solid possession of the puck behind our net.

Yep!

YEP!

HARTY, YEAH!

Nothing.

We’re moving up the ice, him weighing his options like he’s picking which door the prize is behind, getting way too far up the ice.

By the blueline, he decides I get the prize.

The prize happens to be Andy Sutton’s shoulder, moving at a speed of WHOCARESITSANDYSUTTON (who, total random sidebar, treated the rookies like dogmeat).

They whistled the play down and gave Sutton a charging penalty, while I tried to stay away from the light.  Once I pulled my visor up from around my chin, our coach asked if I could go with my line on the next shift.  As a Canadian kid who played for a hockey Hitler in junior, I knew the answer was yes, regardless of truth.

When I jumped the boards a tad weak-kneed, I was lucky the play was in the offensive zone.  I headed straight for the net.  As I got out there, the puck was being cycled up from the corner to Marc-Andre Bergeron, he of the unnaturally hard slapshot.  I opened up and faced him to screen the goalie as I got to the crease.

Between my glove and my elbow pad, I helped their goalie by saving the puck with my wrist.  The puck then dropped at my feet, where I grabbed it, then blindly spun and fired.  And scored.

Half-concussed, and with what felt like a complete absence of sensation in my right arm (but lots in my wrist), I had scored a goal on my second shift of NHL training camp competitive play, complete with the knowledge that you should never hit Andy Sutton, and never try to screen a MA Bergeron howitzer. 

And that it’s probably time I think about becoming a writer.

Contributing to the Power Rankings for USA Today each couple weeks really makes me think about where teams in the NHL are at.  These are the left-over thought nuggets from this weeks edition.

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Carolina - In last years playoffs, Bourne’s Blog became a forum for a quality back and forth with some of the Carolina faithful about their team (mostly because I was treating the ‘Canes like I’ve been treating Phoenix this year), and somewhere along the way I got convinced that they weren’t all that bad.  It made sense that they wouldn’t be – Eric Staal is worthy of having a team built around him, Cam Ward is one of the best goalies in the NHL, and I thought Paul Maurice was a pretty good coach.

When we did our  pre-season predictions, we got some static about the lack of Carolina love.  I had debated whether or not to include them, but we were only asked to pick division and conference winners, not playoff teams, so it made no sense to mention them.  Playoffs, yes, top team, no.

So what the f**k is going on down there?

And now the two players I mentioned before are hurt?  They’re worse than my Isles?  The Leafs?  Hit that “comment” button ‘Canes fans.  Explain yourselves.

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I can’t help but think that there’s about a 20% chance the Cup winner comes out of the Western Conference this year.

Who looks like a Cup threat right now?  I mean, you can say the Colorado Avalanche, but you don’t mean that.  You’re aware they’re still a “good young team”, right?  It’s okay to say that they’re legit.  Tons of up-and-coming talent.  But I don’t see a whole lot of “crap, I don’t want to play that team in playoffs” on their roster.  I do see a whole lot of “crap, I really don’t feel like playing this mid-season game, can someone get a leash on Wolski? Stastny? O’Reilly? Duchene?  CAN SOMEONE GET A BELL ON DUCHENE!??”

Name another threat with a straight face right now. 

The Sharks? 

I’d agree, if they didn’t play in the the Pacific Division, or as it’s better known, the ”try-to-gage-a-team-in-a-division-with-LA-Phoenix-and-Dallas” group. Heatley was a massive pick-up.  Fine.  He makes them the West’s best hope until Chicago inevitably wakes from it’s slumber.  But there’s still something that doesn’t feel right about calling the Sharks a Cup contender.  What does it mean that when I picture the Pacific Division, I picture a train going over some old wooden tressel bridge, only nobody knows the wood is rotten beneath?  I feel like every passing train (game?) is one closer to the utter collapse of the whole thing.  Combine that with a history of playoff failure, and it’s hard to be too sold on the Teal Trainwrecks Titans.

I know you can only beat the teams you play (the Boise State football problem), it’s just tough to tell if they’re actually good, or playing bad opponents.  But, they will be a top three seed again, so here’s to hoping that they can break the same mold they built.

How about this:  If I were to say “for a thousand dollars, will the Stanley Cup come out of the Western Conference, or the Atlantic Division?” - which one are you picking?

Atlantic Division

	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	GF	GA	Home	Away	L10	Streak
Pittsburgh Penguins	17	12	5	0	24	54	44	5-3-0	7-2-0	6-4-0	Lost 2
New Jersey Devils	15	11	4	0	22	39	33	3-4-0	8-0-0	8-2-0	Won 5
New York Rangers	18	10	7	1	21	56	48	6-2-0	4-5-1	3-6-1	Lost 1
Philadelphia Flyers	14	9	4	1	19	52	37	6-2-1	3-2-0	6-3-1	Won 4
New York Islanders	17	6	6	5	17	44	50	5-2-2	1-4-3	5-3-2	Won 1

You know what I’d pick?  I’d pick to complain that it’s NO WONDER THE ISLES STRUGGLE SO BAD. 

This is what makes the NHL playoffs so great.  It’s not accurate to gage a team based strictly on their record, since head-to-head is the only undeniable measuring stick for “who’s-better-than-who”.  In the ever-popular BCS, strength of schedule is a heavy factory in determining the best teams.  Fortunately for us, the NHL has a playoff format, so we actually get to watch the “I wonder who’s actually better” questions play out.

And who’s actually better?

The Stanley Cup Champion Penguins, my friend.  That’s not just picking the obvious – at this point in the season, it’s picking correctly.

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And last, I wanted to give a shout-out to the reader who read my USA Today article, found my blog, tracked down my email, then wrote me the following email, which is printed below, unedited:

“you smoke pickle”

And so, I laughed.

Dad’s observation on hockey coverage, from yesterday: “It’s interesting that between all the hockey analysts on TSN, ESPN, NHL Network, Sportsnet and Headline Sports, not one of them has ever really won – let alone a Cup.”  I’m not sure if he’s right about that or not, but I certainly can’t think of one.  Kevin Weeks?  Ray Ferraro?  Mike Milbury?  Maybe Bob McKenzie has one? 

By the way, I still can’t mention Pierre McGuire’s name without having the other half of the conversation get spitting mad. As my buddy Neil mentioned on here, he’s “polarizing”… only thing is, I’m yet to hear anyone be on any pole other than “that guy’s an idiot”.  “You see what Evander Kane’s thinking HERE?  He’s thinking ‘I’ve got big Ron Hainsey backing me up, two forwards caught deep, a defenseman that struggles doing an eagle-pivot to the left, and I’m coming down on a goalie with damaged confidence from last weeks shellacking when he got pulled in the second period, so I’m gonna drive it wide and fire it off the back wall so it comes out to my lightning fast linemate streaking on the other side, who’s gonna BURY it.’  How good is this kid, Gord?  Only 18 years old.  EIGHTEEN!”.

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Couple slew-foots in the NHL lately.  I hate the f***ing play.  How cheap is that?  It’s the one-man equivalent of having someone kneel behind a guy and pushing him, only twice as dangerous.  That play isn’t regarded with a whole lot of respect in the hockey community, as I’m sure you could’ve guessed.  Ovy’s wasn’t that bad (the “borderline slewy” can be tough to gage), but Arthuykykykykyku-e-i-e-i-o-kin’s was.

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Gotta love the uni's, at least

My Isles, they’re a-strugglin’.

When I watched the highlights, and saw some of the namebars, I was a little less surprised at their struggles.  I had been so caught up in their positive names (ie. young guns Tavares/Okposo, supposedly better goaltending in Rolo/Biron, d-man Streit), that I forgot they were occasionally dressing guys like Thompson and Reichlicz. 

They have officially given my friends on the team enough “development”.  They need Comeau, Tambellini and Neilsen to be good now, not “up-and-comers”, or they’ve wasted their time on them.  Tim Jackman has been consistently good, but his “good” is different from those guys I just mentioned, that are supposed to provide some offense.  Tim isn’t.

It’s like some of the guys on that team have free passes to be NHLers, and they’re just happy to be there.  Not that Bailey won’t be a good NHLer by the time he’s old enough to legally consume alcohol, but would he have played on any other NHL team last year?  This year?  I keep waiting for somebody to grab an opportunity by the balls and run with it on that team.

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Trying to cover Ballard in college led to the line "Somebody getta f**king leash on that guy!"

And last, after the Coyotes hot start, and me writing an article saying they’d suck, I hadn’t backed down.  Then they beat the Bruins.  Then they beat the Red Wings.  At some point (speaking of cutting losses) I’m going to have to say I was wrong.  But I’m just. not. ready yet.

The Coyotes will still miss the playoffs, but instead of 15th, they’re looking at 9th/10th.  TSN has them ranked somewhere in the NHL’s top three.  Hard to argue – they’ve handed Pittsburgh their only loss, and even their own losses were games they could have won.

So I’m sitting down to do USA Today’s power rankings…. and the boys cracked the top ten.  Right now, I’d be an idiot to claim otherwise.

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Last, you can now sign up for membership on HockeyPrimetime.com (www.hockeyprimetime.com).  In November, HPT will be unveiling it’s discount shopping portal to it’s members (certain percentages off at stores like Best Buy, Home Depot and more when you buy online).  They support me, so definitely support them.  The latest piece I wrote for them is on bad travel experiences, from the mouths of the players that live them.

Matt Moulson has scored a couple times in the past two games for the Islanders on passes from John Tavares.  The following is a story about the week we both tried out for the Vernon Vipers in 2001.

I showed up for my 18-19 year old season and started sizing up the competition.  I was one of about four players already signed by the Vernon Vipers of the BCHL after my stellar year playing junior B in Osoyoos, BC.  Moulson was a lock for a spot on the team, but hadn’t been signed yet.

And fortunately for him, he happened to be a lot better at hockey than first impressions.

Moulson, all growed up.

He showed up at the arena for tryouts with a glossy blue button-down shirt buttoned multiple buttons down with a gold chain and slicked back black hair.  He was… confident.

And he was good.  Very good.

Tryouts consisted of a few practices, then being separated into three or four teams, and playing a mini-tournament while the coaches watched.  Our coach was the notorious hard ass, Mike Vandekamp.

The more I think about Mike and my junior years, the more I think they were book worthy (I kept a thorough journal of the madness).  That whole unwritten book could probably be summed up in two words: toughness mattered. 

In reality, fighting mattered.  Over my days as a Viper, I saw our trainer get told to beat up our opponents mascot (and saw the resulting assault charges), watched my coach thow my stick like a javalin at our opponents, saw our team bombarded by navel oranges, saw a steel gate thrown at our opponents coach, and saw much, much (much) more.  Toughness mattered.

Matt Moulson wasn’t tough yet.  Our captain also happened to love Vandekamps style, and hated that this kid thought he was a fancy-pants.

During intermissions of those tryouts, fights were set up between kids for the next period like Don King was the assistant GM.  It “never came from the coaches”, but we all knew it did.  Someone would walk into the dressing room and say “Waddell, you’re fighting Singer next period”.  The whole group of players trying out were basically Roman gladiators looking for the thumbs up or down from Caesar Vandekamp (22 fights in the final scrimmage, with me accounting for 0.0% of them).  I’m not gonnal lie, it was more than a bit scary.

Apparently, there's life after getting cut in junior hockey

So, our captain (this time on his own merit) sent word to our dressing room that he was fighting Moulson next period whether Moulson was fighting him or not.  Matt had four goals in the previous game.  Four.  Moulson was so good they had already put him up with a bilet family and a teammate - who, as fate would have it, happened to be the captain.  He must’ve thought “why should I have to fight anyone?  I should have fighters protecting me.”

What basically ended up happening, is that our captain chased the kid all over the ice.  Moulson wouldn’t fight him.  They were roommates for the year, for f$@%s sake.  After a couple periods, most people couldn’t figure out why Moulson wouldn’t just drop his gloves, seatbelt the guy, and go down.  Just get it over with.

Well, our captain eventually caught him and Moulson did exactly that.  He held on so tight he broke or dislocated his fingers, I can’t remember which.  Either way, our coach was so disgusted by the performance that he cut the guy in the next day or two.  He was second or third in points during camp at the time, tall, and could skate like the wind.

And that was the last time I saw Matt Moulson.

Oh, and for the record – our scrappy team advanced all the way to the BCHL league finals that year before losing in game six to a Chilliwack team that had NHL names like Jeff Tambellini, David Van Der Gulik, and Gabe Gauthier.  We were probably a goal scorer short of being national champions that year.

In retrospect, it’s funny how three people I ended up liking (coach, captain and Moulson) were involved in such a string of shitty decisions.  Who knows where the kids career would be if he had made the team.  Maybe he gets buried by a coach who thinks he’s soft, doesn’t play, and quits at 20.  It’s a crazy game, dude.