Habs Win, A Joe Pavelski Story

New Puck Daddy: the formula you need to follow to pull of an upset

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Well, it appears the Habs are out to make me look like an asshole…. again.  If you remember last year (or saw the comment on yesterday’s post), last year I predicted the Habs to get beat by the Capitals in….three games.  Not even four, I was so sure the Caps would steamroll them.  And we all know how that turned out – the Habs made the Eastern Conference final.

I picked them again to get swept, and again, they come out and win.  Brutes.

Anyway, at least it’ll make for an interesting series (as long as they lose in the end so I can collect on my bet about them, y’know, losing in the first round).

As for the other gambly updates: Jordan Staal had an apple in game one, so that’s good.  Three bottom seeded teams won, which doesn’t scare me all that much.  And we’ll find out more tonight if the series I predicted to go long can get knotted up!

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I thought this was a great pic of one of the Gillies three Newfoundlands, the eldest, Hunter:

Good lookin’ ol fella.

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So Joe Pavelski got it done for the San Jose Sharks last night, which is not out of the ordinary for him.  He was money in last year’s playoffs, and it reminded me of a little story from college.

My freshman year of college, we beat the Wisconsin Badgers in a best of three at the Kohl Center to go to the Final Five in St. Paul.  We were an eight-seed, and they were the three-seed.  My sophomore year, we met in playoffs again as the same seeds…..only they had Joe Pavelski now.

I can’t explain why, but we had them on the ropes again.  We lost game one after blowing a third period lead, but came out the next night and took it to them to knot the series up at three (BTW, we played this series in some other rink in Wisconsin that looked like Madison Square Garden on the inside, if Madison Square Garden was weird. Dane County something-or-other?).

Well, we actually got off to a good start, when one of our lower line guys scored a short-handed goal on a pure breakaway snipe.  By the third period, we were up 4-2. 

And then we got Pavelski’d, and never made it to overtime.

It wasn’t just that he took the game over (I’m pretty sure he had three points in the third period of their 5-4 win), it was the way he did it.  I have to describe his goal that either tied it or put them ahead (it all blends together now):

So, our d-men are doing a good job keeping him on the paint in our zone – he’s got solid possession in the corner, and somehow, through a poor switch or a good move, he ends up getting an opening to take the puck to the net.  He’s still behind the goal line though, so he could go in front or behind.

At one point, he looks like he’s going to go deeper behind the goal line and take the puck behind the net.  He’s a righty, coming from the right, so when the puck is on his forhand, it’s near the boards.

But as he’s skating towards the cage, he brings it way across to his backhand – maybe six inches above the goal line – and in a smooth stick-handle, goes backhand-crossbar-down with his skates still at least a foot behind the goal-line.  Nobody had a sniff what happened it was so slick.

It was our “well, we just don’t have talent like that on our team, good for you assholes” moment.

The guy is clutch, has been clutch, and will always be clutch.  Dude can flat-out play.

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TGIF.  Yessssssss….

Interesting Stories From Each Playoff Series Pt. 2

 

New Puck Daddy: a look inside the pre-playoff series meetings teams have

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If you missed it, yesterday I wrote about the interesting stories I’ll be keeping an eye on from the five playoff series that started yesterday.  Today, I’ll be doing the same for the other three.  Without further ado….. MORE PLAYOFFS!

(2) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (7) Buffalo Sabres

Two things immediately spring to mind: the phrase “upset watch” and the Philadelphia Flyers goaltending.  If you’re as sick of hearing about it as I am mentioning it, blame Philly’s GM, not me.  It’s quite possible that the two things I just mentioned go hand-in-hand.

Let me be clear: I don’t think the Sabres will beat the Flyers.  Philly’s forwards are as deep – okay, deeper – than any other team in the NHL (Boston is in the conversation), and their defense is just too good, even with Pronger out.  Yes, they will have a tough time getting pucks behind Ryan Miller, but you may have noticed Buffalo is a seven-seed — as in, he’s been scored on before.

I’ll be watching to see if Bobrovsky can keep enough pucks out of the Flyers net to help the team avoid getting that upset seed planted in their head.  If he let’s a few shaky ones in during the series’ first contest or Buffalo wins game one…. things will be a lot more interesting.

Underlying story: What the shit happened to the Flyers down the stretch?  You want to peak at the right time, and they seemed like they were dragging their asses through a rut down the homestretch.  I’m curious to see if it was the fact that they didn’t have a meaningful game for like, two months, or if something has seriously gone awry with that team.  More reason to keep this series on upset alert.

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(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (7) Los Angeles Kings

You know what I’m curious about?  If there’s any plausible reason we can dig up to say LA could win more than one game.  The statement Dean Lombardi has made over the past couple years – trying to bring in a big name like Kovalchuk, Iginla, just anyone who could provide some offensive help – leads me to believe he has a pretty good idea of where they need help to win.

Then Kopitar gets hurt, and they’re left with…. Dustin Penner.

This, for the Sharks, could be like going through one of those arrow things in Mario Cart that gives you a burst of speed heading into playoffs.  As Dave Lozo told us, you either win early in round one or you don’t win the Stanley Cup (“The last 32 teams to win their first-round series in seven games have failed to win the Stanley Cup.“).  They could polish off LA early, rest up, and make a push.

Will the Kings give their fans some breath of hope, somehow, some way?

Underlying story: For me, two little stories: one, the Sharks killed it in the second half of the NHL season, so my question is, could this team be way better than most people think?  They’re still pretty stacked.

And two, Antti Niemi.  He’s taken slow but steady steps towards being one of the NHL’s elite goaltenders.  Another solid playoff run would have him cemented there for years to come.  Without being flashy, might we be watching one of the NHL’s best emerge?

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(3) Boston Bruins vs. (6) Montreal Canadiens

I’m excited to see if the Canadiens have any push-back in them.  I know I’ve been very outspoken about this series, but it’s for a reason – I just can’t find a reason to believe the Habs could beat the Bruins, for one simple fucking reason: the Bruins have better players.  Phew – how’s that for in-depth analysis?

It’s not even close.  And the Bruins have the most intimidating team in the league to top it off, because their tough guys can play.  They don’t have to send a brainless thug out there to get justice, they inflict pain just with the natural way their players play, and that’s no fun in a seven game series. 

Milan Lucic and Nathan Horton combined for 206 PIMS (for context, Clark Gillies never got 100 PIMS in a season), and these two combined for 56 goals on top of that.  Cammalleri and Plecanec scored a combined 41(in 15 less games) and are more one-dimensional players.

The Habs have a couple more players with Cup experience, so basically, the story I’m most interested in (much like the San Jose/LA series) is if there’s any reason to believe the Habs have a shot.  Maybe it’s that experience (I think they have four guys with Cups versus the B’s two), but thus far, I can’t convince myself that they won’t be overwhelmed in four or five games.

Underlying story: The interesting names in this series.  Can Tim Thomas play like he did during the regular season in playoffs, or will it be Tuuka Time before it’s all said and done?  Will Tomas Kaberle have a shot at his first Cup?  How will he hold up under the pressure?  Can Carey Price stay in the good graces of Habs fans? 

There’s just a lot of fun NHL stars to track in this one.  Can’t wait to see what unfolds.

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Night one of the NHL playoffs was as fun as to be expected.  Four of my five series winner picks won (save for Tampa), so we’re off to a good start.  I’ll check in on my gambling status early next week.  Enjoy tonight!

Zdeno Chara on Max Pacioretty

 

New Hockey Primetime: The bajillionth take on the Chara/Pacioretty hit.  I think I took a pretty unique look at it though, so give ‘er a go.

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Due to my upcoming and oh-so-exciting trip with the good folks at Easton hockey tomorrow, I’ve got to get a little ahead on my column writing today.  Enjoy the above piece, and if you missed hit, here’s yesterday’s on riding the bus, for Puck Daddy.

By the way, the car was deemed a total loss, so I’m back at square one.  No car, no loan, just a guy without a car.  I guess it’s time to start shoppin’!  If anyone has a black ’08 Altima coupe they wanna sell me, let me know.

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Here’s a little add-on read for today.

Chris Jones of Esquire linked to this interview with someone named Dave Eggers (I have – had? – no idea who that was/is), which ran on www.armchairnews.com.  It’s a long, involved read – honestly, I mostly just read his answers – but the best part that my eyes took in was his addendum. 

The full interview is here if you care to take it all in – it’s about selling out, and why saying yes is better than saying no.  To quote Jones, “Now go out and say yes. Because no is for pussies.”

It’s inspiring, biting stuff – I recommend starting about halfway through the addendum at the very least, if you don’t have time.

The Habs Defensive Gaps, Burrish, and Cages

 

Coaches teach their defenseman to have good gaps.  And they don’t just advise it – they spend entire practices making the d-men make a play in their own zone, sprint to the far blue line, then pivot and take a rush coming back into their end, in order to emphasize tight gaps.  You have to be coming back with the play.  Leaving too much room allows the forwards to cross, be creative, and play patient, which would be more likely to happen if they pivoted at center instead of getting all the way up to the blue.

And they should work on that. I loved when d-men had bad gap.  (There’s a good tip for you rec hockey d-men.  If you’re a sufficient backward skater, don’t back off so deep and give oncoming forwards any freedom.  If you keep your stick on the puck – just anywhere near it – most guys will find a way to lose it to you)

But is it just me, or is Montreal more effective when their gaps are worse?

I feel like no long shots are getting through Halak, so when they sag, they’re able to block shots and clear out rebounds better, without getting roasted wide.  It’s a horrible style of hockey, looks sloppy, and is playing with fire.  But when you’re team is, um, not all that good, you have to roll the dice on occassion.

Anyway, whatever, good on ‘em for getting back in the series.  I’m just spit-ballin’ here.

{Coming soon: BOURNE’S COLUMN ON SHOT-BLOCKING, AND OF COURSE, LES HABITANTS EFFECTIVE USE OF IT}

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This is late, and I tweeted about it the other day, but was having a laugh with a buddy I used to play with:

Adam Burrish calling Shane O’Brien a “spot-picker” in the paper last round was kinda funny, just cause…. Really, Burrish?  You’re a heavy now?  I mean, he’s tough(er than me), but really?

What’d he say again, something along the lines of “if he wants to fight someone, come find me or Benny (Eager)”?  Does he think he’s in Eager’s weight class?  I mean, I’m not one to care about this stuff all that much, we were just laughing, like, when did he get promoted from “physical and effective” to “NHL heavy”?  O’Brien would do just fine against him.

I should point out that I liked the guy in college, and I totally respect his game… it’s just… SayWhatNow?

{UPDATE: Found the interview, may have lost a leeeettle respect here.}

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Not sure if you read James Mirtle’s article on Tkachuk’s horrible, messy dental work he’s had to go through since breaking his upper jaw (amongst other things in his mouth), but it reminded me a bit of the lower jaw shattering party I held in my face last year.

It’s an interesting read, and led me to a column I’ll be taking on soon – basically, I think full cages are worse for concussions, so where do we go from here?  Somebody needs to create some new technology, because the game isn’t going to get any slower and the guys aren’t going to get smaller.  If you have any info that you think would be relevant to a column like that (or contrary to it), feel free to fire it my way at jtbourne@gmail.com.   Thanks!

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If you’re not following me on Twitter yet, hop on - I’ll be firing out links to more of my work on there today.  And as for tonight, Game Three, in the United Center….

I’m calling an overtime San Jose Sharks victory.  Joe Pavelski.  On the powerplay.  Off a rebound.  Nothin’ too specific.

Coaching Around The Canadiens, End of The Detroit “Yankees”?

 

Once again, the purity of playoff hockey has been tainted by some Coyotes ownership clus-f**kery.  Anytime someone works the just-created ”clust-f**kery” into a blog’s first sentence, you would think it’s gonna be a rant – but no-no, my pretties.  We’re gonna talk fun stuff, ’cause eff this noise.  Just let me know what’s happening when it happens. 

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For starters, a quick thank you:  For reading and commenting so responsibly, and with such a great sense of humour.  Our comment section seems to work more as a conversation, with links shared, jokes, and nobody doing the whole “you don’t even know” thing.  It’s a game – we play it for fun, follow it for fun, and when it gets un-fun, it’s time to find something else to do.  (PS, the Rangers, the Oilers, and the Hurricanes suck.   Yay!  )

Thanks for following me on twitter (we’ve still got some room for growth on that one).  And a special thanks to those of you who’ve donated to the blog.  This thing works like one big job application for me, which thus far hasn’t made me rich, so it’s you folks that have kept the blog running.  I’ve received donations ranging from $5 to $300 dollars (and a 2005 HP!), and believe me, I ain’t playin’ the stock market with it (though I do occasionally donate some to a local bar…. but only when The Hills is on at home and I need to watch hockey.  ITS FOR THE GOOD OF THE BLOG, BRIANNA.)

We hit our first 30,000 visit month!  Let’s keep growing this thing. 

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Now!

Onto the “just how seriously do we take the Canadiens?” question.  Which, I hope is a short conversation in the Penguins locker room right now.

Very.

As we’ve previously discussed, their less-than-thrilling rope-a-dope style continues to be oddly effective.  Instead of three minutes, however, they generally take beatings for three periods, only to land massive haymakers at the end of six of their last 11 fights.

At times, you get the feeling that a Pittsburgh player could just stop in the neutral zone with the puck and Montreal would leave him be ’til he tried to cross the red line.  It’s like the world’s longest game of red rover, and the Canadiens are a bunch of WWE wrestlers who’ve interlocked hands.

….We call Malkin! over…

I don’t even know what to say anymore, which, I get the vibe, is a similar feeling Bylsma and Bodreau have had.  Someone has to coach their way around this Canadiens team, and I get the hunch hard work and go-go-go isn’t the answer.  I’d like to see more patience, and a “don’t fire ’til you see the whites of his eyes” mentality on Halak (and maybe give him some of the Big Cess treatment).  When a goalie’s hot, contrary to popular opinion, I’m not of the “shoot more, shoot from everywhere” mindset.  You just end up keeping him warm and alert, not to mention you’re wasting valuable possessions.

Stanley Cup champions have to find a variety of ways to win, have to be versatile.  We’re gonna find out in the next week if the Penguins are as one dimensional as a commenter recently suggested.

{PS – is it possible to not be crazy-intrigued by Subban?  He’s the bright light for Montreal right now, just a super-interesting guy/player.}

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Johan Franzen had a thousand goals and fourteen assists in a 7-1 Red Wings win last night.  Yesterday, I suggested Detroit would win handily (4-1, I think?) just to make all the Sharks supporters “poop just a little”.  And shat themselves, they have.

I’ve never heard so much talk about a potential 3-0 comeback. 

My dad always talked about how hard it was to get that fourth win in a series to close a team out.  Which is doubly scary, since the pressure-pendulum has swung the Sharks way.  The ball is in your court now, fellas. 

My prediction:  Wings take a close game five in San Jose, but San Jose pulls their sh*t together and wins in Detroit in game six.  I also predict that if I’m right on that, the media is going to drag us to hell and back with overreactions about Thornton’s legacy, Marleau’s future, and other mind-numbing circular arguments.

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I heard a few “end of an era” talks about Detroit – the one I’ve linked to there is especially…. what’s a PC word for retarded?  I’ve done some research on the Wings (ooo, I’m a journalist), and here’s what I’ve discovered:

Players under contract until 2013:

Pavel Datsyuk
Johan Franzen
Henrik Zetterberg
Dan Cleary
Valtteri Filpula
Brian Rafalski
Niklas Kronwall
Brad Stuart

Yes.  They’re going to be terrible.  Especially with Triple Gold Club Member Mike Babcock as their coach (47 years old, a Stanley Cup, Olympic Gold, World Championship Gold, World Junior Gold, and 10 wins in the Stanley Cup finals in the past six seasons)

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Back to Canucks-Blackhawks today, round two in Vancouver.  Will the Canucks win?  Will the reffing be atrocious?  WILL CECIL FIELDER ON SKATES SCORE ANOTHER GOALIE “MAULING” HAT-TRICK?  Also, Boston plays.  I’m calling Philly by two.

Last question of the day:  I need help spelling two things.   1) hattrick, hat trick, hat-trick    (2) commentor, commenter… or …commentisaurus rex? (Be thankful I don’t refer to friends of the blog as “puck buddies”, like my favourite hockey site Puck Daddy.)

TGIF!  Have a great weekend folks.

Cinqo de OhMyGod, He’s Not Wearing Teeth On TV

 

So, does Darren McCarty not have teeth, or does he just choose not to wear them?  And as a follow up, which of those two things would be more messed up?

On the “doesn’t have them” hand, he’s just said eff it.  I’m not doin’ the whole teeth thing.  People know I played hockey, they know I was a tough, they don’t expect me to have any chompers.  It’s a hassle, it’s expensive, I’m just not doin’ it.  I don’t care if I’m an analyst with Versus.  I’m not going through with it. (note: I actually like having him on the panel there.  A little personality never hurt anyone.)

On the ”chooses not to wear them” hand, he’s completely socially oblivious.  Because he knows enough to have the teeth, but doesn’t think TV is the right time to be wearing them.  He’s gone through the whole procedure.  Dentist appointments, fittings, root canals, who knows.  But he deems national television an unworthy tooth-sporting event.  I guess he didn’t think many people were gonna see him.  After all, he is on Versus.  BOOM!  So if not then…. WHEN?

My best guess:  He knows he looks better with them in, but they inhibit his ability to speak clearly.  You know, without having a lisp or something.  (Which probably just comes from getting your brain puchisized for free for a dozen+ years, but hey, I’m fine with blaming the teeth.)

{Random tooth tale: My college teammate got a new retainer-style front jib right before our road trip to Minneapolis.  We went out that night after our game for his 21st birthday.  Gets cross-eyed drunk (t-bombs at Brothers), goes home and pukes in the little hotel garbage can by the desk.  The next day, he wakes up at 4:45 hungover as all hell and frantic about missing our 5:00 a.m. team bus.  He throws his stuff together but can’t find his tooth.  So he has to check, y’know?  Nauseous and near-puking, he looks in the can and sees a glimmer of steel from the retainer of his front tooth.  ….And plunges his hand in.  GAG.}

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Sharks/Wingys

Last night the Detroit Red Wings blew a two-goal lead at home to the always clutch, unwaveringly relentless Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau.  You just can’t beat consistency when it comes from team leaders.  (“…well you should, cause I’m layin’ it on pretty thick.”)

 

Great goal. 

Frankly, Jimmy Howard let them down.  I don’t care how many great saves he made over the course of the night – the Shark’s first tally in the dying seconds of the first period was a terrible, momentum-swinging moment, and the goal line sneaker is, as usual, frowned upon.

I swear to god, when it was 2-0 Wings I almost tweeted “Was there anyone out there who didn’t think the Wings were going to pump San Jose tonight?”  And really, it still would’ve been a fair question.  Didn’t we all think that the first game at the Joe was going to be an “oh yeahhhh, now I remember, the RED WINGS, right…” night?

But  San Jose didn’t give up against a tough team in their home barn, and the big boys answered the bell when it was rung.  If you’re a Bill Simmons reader, you know the value of them somehow having the “no one believed in us” factor (the same way the Coyotes did), despite being a one seed.  That’s a dangerous combination, no?

Two things: 

1) Sometimes when a team is down 3-0, you can pretty much stop watching the series.  But with the reputations of these two teams (choking dogs, straight-up winners, respectively), doesn’t this kinda fit the formula for a series that could still get real scary, real quick, IF yaknowhatImean?  I say the Red Wings win the next game handily, like, 4-1 or so, just to make even the most ardent Sharks supporter poop just a little.

2) In fairness, San Jose does look like the team who’ll be moving on, which makes me uber-excited for the Western Conference finals.  Either series would be awesome (vs. Van or vs. Chi), because all three teams have fan bases and teams that can never seem to get over the hump, but deserve to.  Looking into the future: I think I’d pick the Sharks to beat Chicago, but not Vancouver.  I’ll explain when the time comes.

Pitt beats Montreal two-spit

Thus far, this series is only interesting for Penguins and Habs fans, which is probably somewhere near 50% of the total fans of the sport thanks to bandwagonners and traditionalists.  Watching the Habs is like watching a cup-winning Devils team, only without the confidence.

And really, that’s it: Montreal is playing this well because they lack confidence (umm, and they’re smart), so that know they have to play the perfect team defensive game to have any hope.  Whiiiiich they keep doing.  So when they run into a hot (decent?) goalie, the mere 18 shots they’ve generated in two of the four games is simply not going to get it done, even with shutting down the Penguins high-flyin’ offense.

Sorry Habs fans, but you’ve got too much skill and talent on that team to be this boring.  This isn’t who you are. 

Last thought: How badly do you think Scott Gomez’s career highlight reel was squashed by being at his peak during “The Devils Years”? (Which is a memory that makes most hockey fans shudder).  I may have said this before, but if I could pick any guy to carry the puck in on the powerplay, I’m going with him.  He’s just so light on his skates, man.

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That’s all for today people.  Join me at 1PM EST on Puck Daddy’s site for a playoff hockey chat.  I’ll be saying things like “oh big time”, “but that’s just not true” and maybe even “arrrriba!”  Don’t miss out.

The floor is now yours to discuss McCarty’s teeth.

Picks, Coyote Tix and Quick Hits

 

I did a bad job of explaining my predictions before the second round (less “bad job” and more “completely didn’t do it”), and now I have the advantage of having seen a game from each series.  So, my bad on that.  Thus, in the interest of keeping this entry from War and Peace-like length, I’ll cut to the chase on why I picked whom.

I picked Detroit, and explained it was because I can’t pick against The Zettersyuk.  I intend to do an old school, serious piece of prose about the poetic way Datsyuk plays later today.  Sheer artistry.

I picked Vancouver on the Luongo-is-better-than-Niemi tiebreaker, and because I only recently discovered that bandwagon Blackhawks fans are plutonium-level-volatile right now.  They’re entering the “holy crap, if we don’t win this year….” panic phase , where they’re studying salary cap rules at all hours of the night, and realizing that Hossa is basically becoming a one-man Buffalo Bills of the early ’90′s. WIDE RIGHT!  WIDE RIGHT!

I picked Pittsburgh because…. forget it, same reasons you did.

I picked Boston on the Rask-is-better-than-Boucher tiebreaker, and because Jeff Carter and Simon Gagne aren’t playing.  Also because Philly likes effing with it’s own fans by pretending it wants to win the cup, when really all the owners want is to get deep enough to get a few more home games for revenue. (Emery is out for the year?  It’s trade deadline time?  I have an idea…. what it we ride out this average goalie/great team thing and see where it takes us?  Haven’t tried that yet.)

I will say this about the Boston/Philly series – I would have predicted these two teams to be in the second round at the start of the year.  Surprisingly, they both struggled during the regular season, but I do actually think they’re more than capable of being competitive with the best teams.  The right eight teams made it from the East, and if you had looked at the rosters they went with for playoffs like eight months ago, you probably would’ve picked Boston to beat Buffalo, and Philly to beat Jersey.

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During Olympic time, I wrote a blog on Luongo the night before the gold medal game, on the topic of him making me feel slightly uneasy when he’s in net, for whatever reason.  (I took it down for fear of looking like a dissident at such a positive time.)

To me, this is his career-defining series. 

Team vs. team, Chicago and Vancouver are pretty even – maybe Chicago is a little better.  Vancouver’s advantage is supposed to be in net.  When he’s won, he’s almost always had the better team.  When he’s lost, he’s almost always had the worse team.  He’s not getting any younger, and this is one of the first occasions I can remember that it’s his series to win or lose. 

If he wants to be the player Canuck fans think he is, now is his time to shine, like the bright lights hitting his greasy hair.

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My buddy bought a Phoenix Coyotes playoff ticket package, which for those of you that don’t know, means you buy them right through game seven of the finals.  If your team doesn’t make it that far, you get reimbursed.

If they don’t call him soon to offer him tickets for next year instead of just sending him a cheque back (which it appears they’re going to do), it’ll be disheartening as a guy rooting for the team to succeed here.  Coyote’s marketing: he’d take the tickets, I’m telling you.  Make those calls while their season is fresh in everyone’s mind.  DO THIS RIGHT!

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The guys from PTI asked Dwight Howard to pick who he thought should be the league MVP, and he named two players, neither of which were Lebron.  What a hater.

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I’ve seen the Marc Savard reaction to his overtime winner about eighty-hundred times thus far, and I’m still 100% on getting chills.  I love that shit.  Great stick-to-crowd toss.

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I just found out that Jaroslav Halak made 800K this year.  Vesa Toskala made 4SHMIL.  If you believe that there’s any justice in the universe, expect a bank error in Halak’s favour, where he collects 3.2 million, then passes GO for an extra 200 bucks.

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Have to mention this (sorry in advance): yesterday I heard “throwing the snake” used as the all-time-funniest euphemism EVAR.  Some guy, just off the cuff: I bet Jim Ballsillie is so depressed after losing the Coyotes he just sits around “throwing the snake” all day, if you know what I’m sayin’.

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And last but not least, some quick thoughts on each series for ya, while I’m on my way out the door:

San Jose/Detoit:  San Jose has had success so far in playoffs with the complete and utter absence of it’s best players.  Last night, Thornton got the GWG and Heatley had three assists.  This should scare a lot of teams in the West, like say, Detroit.

Vancouver/Chicago: Don’t expect another VanCity beat down.  That Chicago team is too talented, cocky and proud to get run-over like a dog on the highway again.  They need their young gunners to act like THIS DOG and pull them in the right direction, as I fully expect them to do.

Montreal/Pittsburgh: Hey, lookit them Canadiens go. Part of the reason Detoit is so good is because they’ve always been able to get offense from skill (Datsyuk/Zetterberg) or grit (Holmstrom/Franzen).  Jordan Staal was the second part of Pittsburghs offensive equation (and the first part of its defensive one).  Washington didn’t have a second way to score against Halak, and I think it’ll really hurt Pitt that they lost a big chunk of their second style too.  Seems like Halak can make every first save in the book, and Montreal’s D is doing a great job of clearing away second chance opportunities.

Philly/Boston:  The best news for Pittsburgh, who will eventually win that series or I’m folding my blog and becoming a monk, is that this Philly/Boston series is close, so it’s going to be a war.  The teams hate each other.  It’s a battle of attrition, and the winning side is going to limp in front of the conference-finals-firing-squad on one limb.  Pittsburgh, Merry Christmas…. you’re in the finals.

*****

In case you missed it:  On Friday I uncovered footage of Ovechkin and the evil genius boss who sent him to Earth to capture the Stanley Cup.  You can watch it here.

An Ovy-Centric Look At The Capitals Chernobyl

 

Finger pointing and blame. 

It rarely happens immediately or directly after monumental sports failures, instead, it slowly leaks into the tone of the dressing room dissidents as time distances them from the actual collapse.

To their credit, the Capitals endured the interviews following the loss and said the right things.  Really, what are you supposed to say?  You give credit to your opponent, express disbelief at your failure, and try to make some sense of what happened, just moments after it occurred.

“Mrs. Smith, You just found out your husbands leaving you for a younger woman, what went wrong in your marriage?”

But somebody’s to blame.  And we’ll find out who they chose to pin it on with their off season summer moves.  Which starts today.

Hey, maybe they’ll trade for Carey Price.

The Montreal Canadiens – they of the lowest point total in the playoffs (88, 33 less than the high-flying Caps), Kiebler elf forwards, and mid-season goalie controversies – deserve some freakin’ respect for what they just accomplished.  Congrats, fellas.

They played smothering team defense, blocked the shit out of a kabillion shots, and scored just enough goals to win (my favourite point about Marc-Andre Bergeron’s offensive role was a retweet by Bob McKenzie of a Mike Mckenna tweet: “MA Bergeron is like a field goal kicker. Waits on bench til needed (PP). Does his biz, back on bench.”  LOVE that tweet.)

Before I carry on with my look back at the series (and game seven), I’ll get it out of the way: I was wrong (last year I picked the Caps to win in “three” games too – AKA an easy sweep – and they won that one in seven. Yikes).  And further credit-giving: for an upset to happen, you need great goaltending – Halak was obviously the biggest reason this happened. 

Now, what to take from this Capitals loss….

Washington is the first team I can ever remember watching that’s worse when they try harder. 

In regular season contests where they don’t care to put themselves out too much, they let the puck do the work.  They dish to whichever uber-talented linemate is the most open, and they seem to be entertaining themselves like a cat with string by playing keep-away from their opponent.

This was a totally different Capitals team.  When they needed offense, a huge red flag was the way they switched to “don’t worry, I got this” mode.  To not be able to identify and rectify this problem is a look at the lack of leadership coming from inside that dressing room, which is on both Boudreau and Ovechkin.  If your captain is the first guy opting out of the team’s tic-tac-toe-n-go style that got you this far when the going gets tough, you can’t expect your other young gunners to do anything different than the same thing. 

Ovy is their leader, there’s no doubt about it.  Like it or not.  So when he leads the wrong way – by switching to blinders-on one-man-mode – you’re on the path to a disaster FEMA couldn’t clean up (so, um, your standard disaster, then).

If any good came of this, it’s that the Crosby/Ovechkin debate is over, for at least the next year.  It’s early in Ovechkin’s career, and he can fix this the way Kobe Bryant realized there’s an easier way to win than taking it all on himself.  Ovy may have scored as many round one goals as Sidney (5), but Crosby made every person in a Penguin’s sweater better, tacking NINE assists on to that total. 

I’m a little nervous about how this is going to affect the Great Eight, one of the games most charismatic stars, and a guy who’s clearly getting increasingly agitated with reporters and fans.  There’s been hints of child-star-growing-up style acting out over this season.  God help us if he gets angry and decides to play more physical next year.

All I know is, the Canadiens have no captain, which in this series was better than having one lead them in the wrong direction.

Couple other non-Ovy based thoughts:

*Poor NBC and Versus today.  You know they’re totally blue-balled by the Washington/Pittsburgh series that could have been.  It seemed inevitable.  They were so close.  And then…. c***blocked by Montreal.

*Number 8-seeds beat number 1-seeds in the NHL so often I’m starting to wonder if this is a good thing for the NHL.  Don’t get me wrong - upsets are awesome.  But it halfway voids my interest in the regular season.  2-seed, 4-seed, 6-seed, whatever, just get in.  The best teams are still the best teams regardless where they finish, and this year they came into the playoffs as an Eastern Conference 4-seed, and a Western Conference 5-seed.

Can you imagine when the Sharks and Capitals are going at it for the Presidents Trophy next year (Sharks won’t be, but whatever) how little you’ll care?  I need a job here, so I’ll pretend it’s “an epic finish for the one seed” or whatever hyperbole I’ll write, but whatever.  JUST MAKE PLAYOFFS!

*I’ve mentioned before, the best coach I’ve ever had was Davis Payne, for his ability to make in-game adjustments.  I’ve lost a playoff series with a different coach because we “weren’t worried about them” and stuck to a “our game plan”, which was, incidentally, horrible.  Boudreau…. did you just maybe kinda possibly get (badly) out-coached?

*And last, the obligatory Semin comment:  He’s a 40-goal guy who played like a complete bag of marshmallows in playoffs.  How has that regular-season-stud-stuff panned out for San Jose?  The Capitals NEED a goalie, the way Philly has been good enough to contend for a Cup but has refused to acknowledge their goaltending deficiency for the past decade.  Bye-bye Semin, hello legitimate starting goalie.  Make that trade.  This team has more than enough offense to win.  You should be able to get a legit starter for less than what you pay Semin, so put that towards re-signing Backstrom.

*****

And just like that, on to round two, my friends of the blog.  Awesome stuff. 

I went 5-3 in round one predictions, which is a well-below-average performance.  I’ll try to get series previews up ASAP, and I’ll try not to embarrass myself this time!

Halak Forces Game Seven, and Hey, The Bruins Un-Sucked

 

The Washington Capitals chucked 54 shots on Jaroslav Halak, and scored once.  Which can be frustrating.

As a forward, playing a goalie who’s kinda on fire is a funny situation to be in.  And not so much “haha” funny as much as “this milk smells funny”.  What are you supposed to do?

A common problem is that as a team, you’re usually too busy patting yourself on the back for generating so many shots to realize it’s time to switch game plans (but you hope your coach isn’t).  I mean, something has to go in eventually, right?  You think you’re really taking it to your opponent.  You think you’ll break him sooner or later if you just keep it up.  Throw it on net, throw it on net, throw it on net.  But there’s something different in the mindset between trying to score and just trying to get shots, which is all dumb coaches think they want you to do (see also: “shooooooot”-yelling fans). 

In these situations, the scorer’s mindset needs to be all about “getting to the foul line”.  As in, the type of shots you need to take on a piping hot Halak aren’t three pointers or give and go’s.  Remember, if you’re Washington, giving up three pointers is YOUR goalies specialty.  You have to recognize he’s on fire and get dirty.  You need to be on the glass, getting rebounds, banging by the hoop, and putting yourself in situations where even if you don’t score, somebody has to hack you to stop you.

If the tendy can battle through that for the rest of the game and hold on, hey, sometimes you just lose to a guy who’s on top of his game.  Also, in this situation, you may want to approach your teammate Alex Semin and see if he can take a few minutes out of his day to take his head out of his own ass.  Just, y’know, as a personal favour to you.

Clearly, I underrated Montreal (overrated Washington?) when I predicted this series would be over in three.  Halak and Cammalleri are two of the playoffs top performers so far (I’ve been suuuper impressed with Cammalleri’s shot – can’t say I watched a lot of Habs games this year), but I’m still not in the “Montreal is good” camp, or the “Montreal has a chance in game seven” boat.  But hey, they’re doing their thing, so “big ups” to them.

Last thing on this series: what a great diving call on Laperriere last game.  As a perennial Lady Byng style player (yeah yeah, nothing to be proud of), that sort of thing drives me bonkers, because I can’t imagine trying to do that.  I can’t even crawl inside the guy’s head to see what that skeezy thought process must be like.  It’s just another reason to love golfers who call penalties on themselves, isn’t it?  What a rat.

*****

Okay, so I ate shit on predictions yesterday.  One for three.  Buuut, you can’t stop me from making more.  I’m like a weatherman.

*****

I was gonna bash it, but I think I like it – I’m gonna start using the phrase “after the jump” like every current writer.  More on that after the jump.

*****

Just kidding, I’m not talking about it more.

So! 

The Bruins beat the Sabres.  Here’s why the Bruins might actually not be that bad:

Boston was a top seed last year. 

Okay, they lost Phil Kessel and, um, Chuck Kobasew, but their young studs like Krejci, Bergeron, Lucic and Wheeler all have an extra year of NHL experience. Your offense isn’t that different.

Contrary to what Detroit fans would have you believe, it was Boston who “led” the NHL in man games lost to injury this year.  We didn’t see a whole lot of healthy Marc Savard this year, and the guy happens to be one of the leagues premier goal scorers.

Their goaltending actually got better.  Tuuuuukkkka Rask played over half the games in Boston this year, and led the league in GAA and save percentage (1.97 and .931%).

Maybe they’re not a top seed, but they way they played down the stretch made you forget that maybe they can be good.  It’s crazy that they made round two after how they looked at times this year.  I desperately need Montreal to get eliminated, so teams don’t think it’s possible to be THAT BAD in the last few weeks of the year and still make the second round.  Wait, Philly already did that too?  Damn.

*****

Detroit and Phoenix play game seven tonight in Glendale.  Can’t wait!

2010 NHL Playoffs – The Leastern Conference

 

Washington Capitals (1)

vs.

Montreal Canadiens (8)

For whatever reason, I don’t like many teams that wear red.  For example, there’s just about nothing I want to watch less than a New Jersey/Carolina series, as attested by my coverage of said series in last year’s playoffs (blatant refusal).  To make those games worse, I feel like there’s just something grinding about watching the actual colour red play red.  Anyone feel me on that? (Mmm, aesthetically soothing Canucks colours…)

For some reason, this red vs. red battle doesn’t bother me quite so much.  Like most hockey fans, I love to watch Washington.  And Montreal, though a puny little excuse for a Washington challenger, is kinda fun to watch this year too (fun like those tiny toy cars “Hot Wheels” were as a kid).

The only way Washington’s round one series had any hope of being interesting this year was if Philly had the eight seed.  It would’ve been awesome watching Carter and Richards going buck-crazy, being playoff performers out there, scoring goals….. and still losing by football scores, like 21-14.  Thatta been great.

Not much to say here, except the obvious: Washington just has way too much firepower to lose.  If the Canadiens give them so much as a scare, I fear for Washington when they play a better team.  I rate Montreal’s chances, as a percentage, at beat-it-dont-even-try.4%

PREDICTION: CAPITALS in THREE

*****

New Jersey Devils (2)

vs.

Philadelphia Flyers (7)

I think this was a tough card for New Jersey to pull, simply because I can’t believe how badly the Flyers have underachieved this year.  I mean, 88 points, in the East?  How is that possible, with their roster?  Before the season, I noticed that their back end had good transition/powerplay guys such as Pronger, Timmonen and Carle, and I remember thinking “crap, they’re gonna score a ton of goals this year.”

Combine that with with some of the games best forwards: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Danny Briere and crew (Claude Giroux is no slouch. Hell, Van Riemsdyk is sick too.), and Philly has a wonderful hockey team.

So what the hell is going on there?

Riiiighht, goaltending, right.  I’ve seen this play before.

On the other side of the coin, I was completely surprised by New Jersey’s record this year.  Any time you have Brodeur in net, your team can’t be bad – but past him, I didn’t see a reason for them to have much success.  I knew Parise and Zajac were great, but then what? (That, and I kinda figured Elias and Langenbrunner were past their best-before dates…. guess not).  I kept waiting for this team to trip, but it never happened.

With the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk, the Devils finally have that dynamic offensive punch you always felt that they lacked in the past.  It gives them two really solid lines (though they admit they can’t find a spot for Kovy that clicks), and combined with Brodeur, it’s become pretty clear that their season wasn’t a fluke.

{I have to point this out for the millionth time – can you BELIEVE that Kovalchuk is 230 pounds?  I’d have been off by 60 if you had made me guess two months ago.}

But looking at their D -  Andy Greene, Mike Mottau, Bryce Salvador, Colin White, Paul Martin, Mark Fraser, Martin Skoula and Anssi Salmela.  I dunno… it doesn’t feel very Cup contender-y.  They have, however, done a great job at keeping pucks out of their net this year (y’know, first-in-the-league-good, at 191 over 82 games – 2.32 per), but something about them makes me nervous.  ….And it probably has something to with NJ’s (okay, Marty’s) meltdown in the final minute of game seven against Carolina last year.

If you put the leagues most average goalie in the Flyers net - say, Dwayne Roloson – I think I’d pick them to win this series.  I like their roster that much more.  But Parise, Zajac and Kovalchuk shooting on Boucher makes it a dicey situation.

In the end, New Jersey has done too good of a job defensively to lose their first playoff series, where defense and goaltending are emphasized.  I think they’ll see round two, but barely.

PREDICTION: DEVILS in SEVEN

*****

Buffalo Sabres (3)

vs.

Boston Bruins (6)

If I were the Buffalo Sabres, I would be pissed at how the final playoff seeds ended up falling.  They (like New Jersey) were so close to getting to play an obviously worse team like the Rangers or Thrashers.  But noooo, Boston and Philly had to get their shit together at the last second, and squeak in.

This sucks, you see, because Boston and Philly aren’t as horrible as they desperately tried to convince us all they were this year.

One of the few guys pushing Ryan Miller for the Vezina this year is Boston’s Tuuka Rask.  Combine that solid goaltending with Buffalo’s Phoenix-like offense (three lines of second line forwards = good team/not great), and we may see some low scoring games – especially when you consider that Buffalo has the league’s best goaltender, and Boston can’t score (206 goals all year, good for second-to-dead-last).

But, every time you think a series is going to be a defensive suck-fest, it ends up amazing.  Using that logic, this could be a thrilling, high-scoring series.  The only people I care to see play are the goalies.  I’m not saying Derek Roy and David Krejci aren’t exceptional hockey players, I’m saying that nobody is circling dates on their calendar to see them when they come to town.

I see Boston being the better team in this series, bringing the play to Buffalo, shooting, skating, hitting, exhausting themselves, and Ryan Miller chucking up the frustrating stone wall.  Then I see the Sabres working hard and smart, capitalizing on a few nice plays, (maybe a powerplay or two?), and winning games by scores like 3-2 and 2-1.  They probably win a couple of the - oh, let’s say three – games that go to overtime.

I really wanted to pick an upset here – and the Sabres and Devils are definitely both on my “upset watch” list.  But Ryan Miller is the best goalie in the world today, and that counts for something in playoffs.  I’m siding with him.

PREDICTION: SABRES IN SEVEN

*****

Pittsburgh Penguins (4)

vs.

Ottawa Senators (5)

Congratulations, Ottawa.  You finished ahead of the slovenly pack of droolers in the East.  You stayed out of the “who’s gonna make playoffs” fracas.  And in the process, you convinced me that you’re actually a good team.  I was wrong about you.

The bad news is, you’re basically about as lucky as the Coyotes in the West.

Had Pittsburgh caught New Jersey, as they should have, you’d be playing Jersey instead.  And I like your odds there.

What I don’t like, for you, is going up against the defending Stanley Cup champs, who are healthy, and about to flip it into “game on” mode.  You’re toast.

The Penguins probably slow-played their hand a little bit too much this year.  Didn’t do enough to grab the really high seed that guarantees they get to coast through round one.  Over the long haul of playoffs, having to play a good Senators team to start things off is really going to grind on them physically.

But as far as this series goes, Pittsburgh is still Pittsburgh.  Between last years Cup champion team and this year, they cut off a couple guys that were acting as anchors, and picked up depth assets in guys like Jordan Leopold and Alexi Ponikarovsky.  You take a team that’s won the cup and make them better?  They don’t lose round one.

PREDICTION: PENGUINS in FIVE

*****

So that’s all she wrote for round one, folks!  I’ll keep a running total of how my predictions went as we go (though I won’t follow how many games it took to get it done – that’s really just there to demonstrate how confident I am in the winner I picked). 

GAME ONE OF M***********G PLAYOFFS STARTS TONIGHT!

THROW.    THE.    SNAKE.

Eastern Conference Playoff Spots

 

Bear with me, hockey fans… In my last blog, I made a couple football predictions – I said the Colts would beat the Jets 24 – 17 with a late pick thrown by Sanzchez:  Colts beat the Jets 30 – 17 with a late pick thrown by Sanchez.  I also said the Saints would win on a late field goal, 31 – 30:  The Saints won on a late field goal, 31 – 28.  Damn.  I should make this a football blog.

Now that my back has been sufficiently patted, I’ll move on.

*****

Dennis Wideman, a member of my fantasy hockey team, was minus three when he got hit in the face with a puck last night.  He celebrated by returning and moving to minus four.  I’m celebrating by publicly chastising him on my blog.  Dennis Wideman sucks.

*****

Spots 6 – 13 in the Eastern Conference standings are separated by three points right now (55 points to 52 points), with the Senators in 5th, ahead of the pack by five points (60).  Unfortunately for Ottawa, they could be on the wrong side of the line come playoffs. 

If we bring them into the mix, because lets face it, they are in the mix, that means there’s nine teams vying for four spots.  Here’s the who’s out/who’s in predictions, according to my dumb self:

5th, Ottawa Senators, 53 games played, 60 points

As I just alluded to, I don’t like the Sens team this year.  They’ve got one of the best lines in the NHL with Spezza and Alfredsson, but that’s really the only leg they’ve got to stand on.  Mediocre goaltending, suspect D, and just not enough firepower to get it done (also, they have to play essentially shorthanded when Kovalev is on the ice notgivingafuck for a living).  They’ll be in the battle for the eight spot in April.

6th, Philadelphia Flyers, 51 games played, 55 points

Didn’t I just write about them being a scary low seed?  Apparently they made a push.  Philly is definitely one of the teams who’ll stick, and with the return of Emery, I think they’re looking at the five seed, just high enough to “upset” a then-staggering Buffalo or New Jersey.

7th, New York Rangers, 52 games played, 55 points

I remember thinking the Rangers would finally be one of the leagues top teams this year, but with Torterella proving himself to be more of a yeller/motivator than a guy focused on strategy and keeping his team level, I’m not sure what to think.  I can see them getting into playoffs as a seven seed, and, anytime you have a legitimate goaltender in playoffs, you’re going to stress out your opponent.  Maybe they can pull it together by then.

8th, Montreal Canadiens, 53 games played, 55 points

I’m calling them “in”, but if I’m wrong anywhere, it’s here.  I think we knew they’d be a team fighting for a playoff spot this year, so every night matters.  That means they need to stay healthy to squeak in – either way, the Capitals are going to ROLL OVER them if they earn this spot.

9th, Boston Bruins, 51 games played, 54 points

The Bruins will make the playoffs, probably as a six seed, and why not: proven goaltending, some good d-men including shut-down defender and Norris winner Zdeno Chara, and enough pieces up front (when healthy) to put the puck in the net.

10th, New York Islanders, 52 games played, 54 points

My Isles need to fight tooth-and-nail to win every possible point on every possible night, cause it’s a long-shot.  Coaching and goaltending are keeping them afloat right now, so two things have to happen down the stretch for them to have any hope (barring trading for Kovalchuk or someone else substantial):  The d-corps will have to play way over their collective head (after Streit, their D are basically all 5th/6th d-men on most teams), and the young guns (Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Moulson) need to find some way to keep/improve their pace as the point-getting gets tougher after Christmas….  It always does.  Here’s to hoping!

11th, Florida Panthers, 52 games played, 53 points

Losing David Booth buried the Panthers this year.  They’ve actually got a pretty squad over there – not many teams can afford to have a 30 goal guy miss the season (while banking six million of your teams money), especially not perennial strugglers like Florida.  Their hopes hinge on him returning sooner than later.

12th, Atlanta Thrashers, 51 games played, 52 points

Only Carolina and Toronto give up more goals than the Thrashers, and they’re talking about trading the major cog in their offensive machine in Ilya Kovalchuk.  They need Kari Lehtonen to be who he can be ASAP if they’re to have any hope.  Which they don’t have much of.

13th, Tampa Bay Lightning, 51 games played, 52 points

Tampa’s a good team.  I mentioned my “Tocchet is a bad coach” theory before, and after a little roster evaluation, I’m even more certain of this.  Lecavalier, St. Louis, Ryan Malone, Stamkos, and Tanguay can all play, while they’ve got some good role players, average d-men and good goaltending.  I see them battling for that 8th spot with Ottawa and Montreal come April.

*****

That’s all folks!  Agree?  Disagree?  Let’s hear it!

Two Videos, One Face-Punch

 

The Detroit Lions finally w0n a damn football game this Sunday, the first since 2007.  And so, things are finally turning around for this group of bright-eyed hopefuls.  Could it be because of a very special visit from some very special friends?

*****

Okay, you get one punch, free of consequence, to anyone in America (I narrowed it to the US, cause otherwise you’ll get all intelligent on me and pick someone like Kim Jung Il).  It’s the fight-club game, but not limited to celebrities.  Who’s it gonna be?

Mine?  The guy who runs TMZ.

It’s a bit of a guilty pleasure of the wife’s, so it’s on occasionally.  Unbelievable show.  Has to be seen to be believed.  They chase psuedo-stars around and yell questions at them, then make snide remarks about the responses.  Boggling, boggling stuff.  I’ve been boggled.

My selection is a right cross to the mouth-hole, preferably while he’s talking.

*****

 Alright, as I promised, here’s another Bourne’s Blog prediction, video style.  Ignore the fact that it looks like I recorded this while sleep-walking.  I get started on these things pretty early.

 This one focuses on a couple overlooked teams that aren’t real threats to win the cup, but will be better than what analysts are giving them credit for.  Coulda picked Nashville from the West, but I hate them, so it would’ve been hard.  Your thoughts? 

‘