2010 NHL Playoffs – The Bestern Conference

I’m picking the Sharks to win the Cup.

*waits*

AhhhhGotcha!  They suck.  Let’s make some picks.

*****

SAN JOSE SHARKS (1)

vs.

COLORADO AVALANCHE (8)

Before the season, I didn’t have Colorado pegged to be a playoff team.  Halfway through the year I looked Barry Melrose level wrong on that (y’know, the guy who didn’t think Stamkos was gonna amount to much of an NHLer?  Love the guy, but he’s building a solid reputation for his wrongitude).  By the end of the season, I had almost come full circle back to right.

Expect a much better playoff performance this year

They’ve got a ton of badass young talent.  But I wouldn’t bet on Colorado to win this series if Vegas doubled the odds and you paid for my wager.

Contrary to my “they suck” joke about San Jose to open this blog, I don’t think they suck.  I’m picking them to go deep – like, conference finals deep – but I wouldn’t pick them to win a series against Chicago or Detroit (both would be epic series), and the bad news for SJ is, both those teams happen to be in the Western Conference.  Which they’re in too.

I think you’ll see a great first round out of big Joe and crew, cause they’ll be fired up as all hell to prove themselves.  More than any team in the NHL this post-season, they know an early round exit means a bunch of people getting new zip codes in the off-season.

Colorado’s pace will be amazing, and Stastny will be money.  But with Nabokov in net, the Avs upset hopes are some of the lowest in the league this post-season. (Here comes an Avs sweep after that prediction, huh?)

PREDICTION:  SHARKS in FIVE

*****

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (2)

vs.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS (7)

Shocking truth – I don’t think Chicago’s goaltending is bad as every human on Earth seems to think it is.

Youuu don't get to play, bud, sorry.

Now Washington – Washington has two horrific goaltenders.  Antti Niemi and Cristobal Huet may not be the elites of the league, but they certainly aren’t the dregs either.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s blog, Nashville – despite reaching 100 POINTS this year – was EVEN in goal differential during five-on-five regular season play.  Well that’s not very good, is it?

If they struggled to create offense in the regular season, I can’t imagine it’s going to go much better in the tighter checking post-season.  And if you could sum up the general point I’ll be making in my predictions, it’s that “teams that score by committee are f****d”.  Depth is good.  No-big-guns is bad (though I will race you to pick Hornqvist in fantasy hockey next year).

In reality, the Predators are not going to lose because of the Predators.  They’re going to lose because they’re playing a team that’s gone all-in this year.  Every chip they’ve got has been pushed to the middle, with very little regard to what happens after this season.  This equals one thing: an all-star team.

Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Kris Versteeg, Patrick Sharp, Dave Bolland, Dustin Byfuglien….. really I could just type roster names til I’m out of them.  This one won’t be close.

PREDICTION: HAWKS in FOUR

*****

VANCOUVER CANUCKS (3)

vs.

LOS ANGELES KINGS (6)

As Bob McKenzie adamantly pointed out today, the LA Kings finished two – count ‘em, two – points behind Vancouver in the standings. It’s not so much a “3 vs 6″ matchup as it is two 4.5 seeds going at it.

This is one of those series you know is going to go six or seven games, but I’m not sure why.  Vancouver is better in net.  And up front.  And on D.

Easy jokes aside, these two are full blown difference makers.

That’s not to say LA isn’t strong in all those places, because they are (101 points!).  But those Sedins have gone from point-getting and bothersome to venemous and unbelievable.  Both sides have game breakers in this one, which is why it’s going to be a blast (which, incidentally, is why Boston/Buffalo is going to be a painfully long, close series – they don’t have any).  It just so happens that the Canucks have the better ones.

Luongo finally took a step passed his “never won anything” reputation in the Olympics.  As shaky as it may have been, or whatever you may think of him, mentally, that’s huge for a guy’s confidence.  You want him in net over either of the Kings tenders, every time.

The Canucks will miss Willie Mitchell.  He’s a big part of that d-corps, but he’s not the only piece.  The Canucks will get it done, but the Kings will take a lot out of them.

PREDICTION: CANUCKS in SEVEN

*****

PHOENIX COYOTES (4)

vs.

DETROIT RED WINGS (5)

You may remember, eight or nine days ago, I wrote a column on how unfortunate (but inevitable) it was the the ‘Yotes would draw the Red Wings in the first round. 

Nothing has changed since then.

Love this picture....

{Well, one thing has – there’s the movement, started via Five For Howling‘s Travis Hair (@TravisHair) on Twitter, to have Coyote fans throw fake rattlesnakes on the ice, I think after warm-up (check out #ThrowTheSnake on twitter).  I know folks will be worried about it costing the ‘Yotes a penalty, but it rarely does after the first occurance at any given game. 

You’ll get a warning, so just don’t do it after the first “hey stop that” (if the team has half a marketing brain – and I think they do – they’ll embrace this.  They could sell them, jack the price up and cash in).  Either way, it’s a great bit of potential hockey culture down here in the desert.  I’m tellin’ ya man, the fans need something to call their own, and this can be the start of Phoenix’s first “own thing”.  I’m on board.  But anyways, back to the series….}

These are the two best coached teams in the NHL.  Babcock coached his team through a kabillion injuries and somehow got them to 100 points for the bloody TENTH STRAIGHT YEAR, while Dave Tippett took a team most people picked to finish one place behind last, and at times, teased being the conference’s best.

The Coyotes have rock solid goaltending in Ilya Bryzgalov, which was going to be their huge advantage in a playoff series.  Unfortunately for them, Jimmy Howard found his game at the NHL level, learned to battle, and got himself into MVP talk, somehow.  At the very least, he’s a Calder top two.

But here’s where I rehash that same old point – when a game needs to be broken open, Coyotes fans will bite their fingernails halfway off everytime Henrik Zetterberg or Pavel Datsyuk has the puck.  Scoring by committee isn’t impossible, you just hope that your committee doesn’t have a first round defensive opponent of Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart and crew.

At the other end, guys like Lepisto, Vandermeer and Michalek (okay, and Jovo at the defensive end) – as good as their years were – probably aren’t going to be able to stop the mix of Datsyuk/Zetterberg skill with Franzen/Holmstrom grit.

Here’s the thing.  I WANT the Coyotes to win.  I want this team to look like a great “buy low” deal for the contemplating future owners.  I want a hockey culture here.  I’m jumping in an RV with about a dozen other guys, driving up an hour before the game, getting my white out on and cheering like everyone else (yes, for the ‘Yotes).  But as a sports writer, I have to be honest.  I’d be surprised if the Coyotes won.

But then again, Coyotes fans, you may recall…. I’ve been wrong about them before.  Here’s to hoping they surprise me again.

PREDICTION: RED WINGS in SIX

*****

(Leastern Conference picks later today)

Pre-Season NHL Stuff

Thoughts from my first Phoenix Coyotes pre-season game:

(1)  Matt Greene, now of the LA Kings, played for the U of North Dakota when I was in college.  I always thought he was a bit of a liability for them (based on his big, lumbering nature), but UND was one of a few teams that had an NHL (as opposed to olympic) sized rink in college, so he made it work.

Plus, if he hit you, it hurt really, really bad.  He was unaware of the battle going on between him and my roommate Charlie Kronsch.  The battle was that Matt frequently gave Charlie stitches in the chin (wearing the full cage in college makes for a lot of chin stiches), and Charlie wanted to return the favour.  But every year for poor Chuck, here’s your new zips, courtesy Greener.  Final score, Greene, 17, Kronschnabel, 0.  Oh, and by the way Char, Greene is in the NHL now.  18-0.

(2) When the puck first drops to start the game (especially during camp, pre-season, and weekend games), its understood that the pace is freaking intense – like, max effort, until that first whistle.  “Set the tone” stuff, ya know?  It has to settle down from there.  It was nearly ten minutes before the Yotes game saw a whistle, and I got a big kick out of guys trying to keep the pace up on their second, and third shifts.

(3) Was Balsillie there?  No, seriously, was he?  I couldn’t help but think he had to be watching from somewhere, if he’s such a big fan of hockey that he wants to own the team…

(4) They asked the fans “Shane Doan Trivia”, which I found hilarious, because…. what are their options?  Coyote history trivia would just end in “Doan” anyway, so you might as well narrow it down a bit, right?  Nice move.

(5) I feel really bad for writing an article about the Coyotes sucking after having been to a game.  The article I wrote, sadly, was accurate – just seeing the fans that do support them and hearing the interviews with the guys made me feel a bit guilty.  Sorry, guys.

No Waaay?

Way!

(6) The highlight of the night was a Shane Doan jumbotron commercial for a bank, where a fan is taking money from the ATM, and Shane misunderstands the meaning of “free checking” and hits the guy from behind.  He has a line at the end of the commercial, and that’s when it hit me.  Shane freaking Doan is Keanu Reeves.  Right?  I mean, isn’t he?  The hair… the tone… it was all just so obvious this whole time.  I cannot believe I missed this prior to now.

(7) The rink setting in Phoenix is amazing.  One of the best I’ve ever seen.  Not only is the rink nice, new and ideal for watching a game, but everywhere outside it is just so great.  Fountains with half-Bellagio water shows, a Jimmy Buffet margaritaville, restaurants and bars, Irish pubs and shopping, it’s just too perfect.  If they do manage to survive, I’d go just to linger outside under the misters and drink a few pints in front of the outdoor TV’s.  Heaven forbid this team starts winning, they might just get popular.

(8) They charge more for Pittsburgh and Detroit games.  Just thought I’d pass that along.

(9) They still charge $8.25 for a beer.  Isn’t that unbelievable that they can do that?  A draught beer costs a restaurant something like 37 cents.  Movie theater owners would hear that mark-up and call it preposterous.  I’d have boycotted if it wasn’t a Coyote’s pre-season game, which are the most drink-inducing words you can string together on this side of “bachelor party”.

(10) I’m still a big fan of the sleek RBK jerseys (though not the Coyotes colors/logo).  Nice evolution to the look of a hockey player.

(11) Just how dumb is wearing no visor nowadays?  I don’t even feel the need to make my case beyond that sentence.

"The look"

(12) There are few things as satisfying as skating behind a d-man into a nicely chipped puck with a ton of speed already going.

(13) The t-shirt shoot: I think they shot 900 t-shirts to the 450 fans, (both ballpark figures).

(14) Bryzgalov just looks like an NHL goalie.  They have that structure and size you don’t see from the amateurs.  He also has the tendency to get beat five-hole like NHL goalies, a phenomenon that never ceases to boggle me.  For some reason, I think 40% of goals in the NHL are scored five-hole.  It’s absurd.

And that was game one, pre-season.  I’m looking forward to going to more games and having my “to write about” list grow.  I think I need to write about the momentum of skating, and what a bitch having to actually stop is.  Not that I chose to stop all that much, but still, I hated it when I had to.