Ryan Lambert is my colleague over at Puck Daddy, and as you well know by now, I often “FJM” (MST3K, whatever) his Monday column “What We Learned,” only not in a dickish way (still a decent helping of sarcasm, of course).  This week, he dropped a special treat on us all – 20 completely random predictions. 

I thought to mix it up and keep it fresh, I’d FJM those today.  Cool?  Cool.

20 Bold Predictions For the Upcoming Season:

1. There will be three 100-point scorers on the Capitals this year as Alex Semin plays big-time for a new contract.

I hope so, cause he’s on my fantasy team.  I predict at least one snipe from Semin this year that makes me obsessively rave over how hard he snaps the puck.  Scary.

2. Ilya Kovalchuk(notes) leads the league in power play goals and actually stays on the right wing for a considerable portion of the season. He and Zach Parise(notes) will also make Travis Zajac(notes) a fantasy hockey superstar.

Zajac a fantasy hockey superstar?  I hope so, cause he’s on my fantasy team. 

With the way they shoot, Kovalchuk and Semin remind me of each other.  There’s a similar look to it.  Also, I continue to be blown away that that little Russian goal scorer (Kovy) is 230 pounds of man.  I’ll call Kovy for 50.

3. The Rangers will make the playoffs this year.

Lundqvist would have to have one hell of a season for that to happen.  I think they rely too heavily on inconsistent players - that’s never a good equation for an 82 games season.  For them to get in, two of the following teams have to miss playoffs: Tampa Bay (no chance they miss), Ottawa (bubble), Buffalo (bubble) or Montreal (okay, they’re probably one of the two).

4. Olli Jokinen(notes) might actually not make any Flames fans cry this year. Not that he’ll score 60 points or anything like that to earn his contract, but he won’t be actively terrible.

Yeah, I see a resurgence coming too.  It’s one of the reasons (you’ll see in Wednesday’s PD predictions) I called Calgary to finish second in the Northwest, barrreeeely ahead of Minnesota.

5. Carey Price’s(notes) house won’t need to be under 24-hour surveillance because he’ll actually play well and no one will hate him.

Well, he can certainly be confident that the job is his.  Alex Auld?  Not like any good tenders were available or anything this summer, Montreal.  (Sorry for the cuts at your team, Habs fans – the team just seems so… slightly below average)

6. Taylor Hall(notes) will actually beat out Tyler Seguin(notes) for the Calder. But the Oilers will be last in the West again this year.

I really struggled doing my predictions, because frankly, I don’t the Oil are going to be awful this year.  At least not embarrassing, anyway.  Problem is, everybody else improved in the off-season too, so who could I put them ahead of?  I very nearly called the Avs to finish behind them in the Northwest, but just couldn’t quite bring myself to do it.

7. Brad Richards(notes) will go and put up yet another 90-plus point season and everyone will still act like he’s overpaid.

He’s one of those guys who’s had a great career, but I haven’t seen play much.  Apparently Tampa Bay and Dallas don’t get a lot of games on TV or something.  I also struggled with Dallas/Anaheim in the predictions, by the way.  Dallas is deeper, but that top line on Anaheim is insane.  I went with Anaheim, barely ahead.

8. The Blues will sneak into the last postseason spot out West this year, not entirely because of Jaroslav Halak(notes), but rather because all those kids will take a big step forward.

I almost made that prediction verbatim in a video blog last year.  Apparently it was a year early.  So yes, I whole-heartedly agree, their ceiling is 5th/6th in the West I think.

9. Rick Nash(notes) will continue to be awesome, with at least 40 goals, and no one in Columbus will care because the team is still going to stink.

Hey, I thought these were “bold” predictions.

10. Ryan Miller(notes) plays a one-man show in Buffalo for 70-something games and the Sabres still miss the playoffs.

Ah, that’s how you’ve got the Rangers getting in.  Makes sense, actually.  I thought they (along with Colorado) had an inexplicably good 2009-10.

11. The Tampa Bay Lightning power play will be the best in the East.

There’s a lot of great units with Pittsburgh, Philly, New Jersey etc, and I don’t think Tampa has the d-men you need to own that “best” honor.  It helps to have Pronger/Carle/Timonen and Martin/Goligoski/Letang type guys.  That said, Tampa’s top unit is insane, so the prediction makes sense. I just have to believe Stamkos is going to have someone in his shooting lane all year.  I watch from home and I’m on to where his missle launch site is.

12. Evgeni Malkin(notes) will round back into form this season. Something like 35 goals and 95 points.

Yeah, for sure.  He might be the toughest guy in the league to handle when he’s “on.” 

13. The Red Wings win the Central this year as heavy losses for the Blackhawks do more damage than people expected.

There, see, THAT’S bold. 

They were ten points behind Chicago in the regular season and lost in five to San Jose last year.  They basically added Mike Modano (Update: Oops, they added Hudler too, I’m an idiot).  So we have a pretty good idea where they’re at.  On the other hand, the Hawks dumped half their roster.  My prediction will be that people will be surprised that Chicago’s “fill-in guys” (Skille, Bickell etc) are actually really good players, and the team will win the Central again.

14. Ilya Bryzgalov(notes) will win the Vezina.

Sure, Buffalo will be worse (harder year for Miller), and Phoenix pays attention to team defense, which is more valuable than just having good defensemen.  Howard’s not there yet.  So sure.  Byz for Vez.

15. In a shocking bout of consistency, the Flyers will only dress six different goalies this season.

I mean, what the fuck is wrong with Bobby Clarke?    PATCH THE ONE HOLE IN YOUR DAM, DUDE.

16. Dustin Byfuglien(notes) will be a total disaster at the Atlanta blue line and get moved back to forward well before January.

Yep, a travesty.  Having him on the blueline voids most of his entire worth.  It’s like buying subs and an amp for your car and putting on pop music.  Or playing Bryzgalov at left wing.  Or using a sub sandwich as a pen.

17. The Florida Panthers will be the worst team in the league this year.

Co-sign.  Wish there was somewhere I could bet on that.  Really, they have better odds to win the Cup than the Isles, Bodog?  Eat me.

18. Jussi Jokinen(notes) will fall back to earth with a resounding thud. That 60-point season was a crazy fluke.

I couldn’t pick him out of a line-up of mascots.  Not to say he looks like a mascot, I just literally have no idea who that guy is beyond his name.  I’ll go do some research.

19. Anze Kopitar(notes) becomes widely recognized around the League as a superstar, as people tune into more Kings games to get an eyeful of Drew Doughty.

More people will tune into the Kings games in general, because they should be pretty darn good.  How intimidating will those all-black jerseys be if the team starts tearing up the ice?  That’s a great look on a good team.

20. Antti Niemi(notes) will do no better for the Sharks than Evgeni Nabokov(notes) ever did.

No, there’s no reason to believe he’s an upgrade, but if he’s on par and saves them four mill, that should make them better by allowing them to afford to keep an ever-improving guy like Joe Pavelski.

Once again, the purity of playoff hockey has been tainted by some Coyotes ownership clus-f**kery.  Anytime someone works the just-created ”clust-f**kery” into a blog’s first sentence, you would think it’s gonna be a rant – but no-no, my pretties.  We’re gonna talk fun stuff, ’cause eff this noise.  Just let me know what’s happening when it happens. 

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For starters, a quick thank you:  For reading and commenting so responsibly, and with such a great sense of humour.  Our comment section seems to work more as a conversation, with links shared, jokes, and nobody doing the whole “you don’t even know” thing.  It’s a game – we play it for fun, follow it for fun, and when it gets un-fun, it’s time to find something else to do.  (PS, the Rangers, the Oilers, and the Hurricanes suck.   Yay!  )

Thanks for following me on twitter (we’ve still got some room for growth on that one).  And a special thanks to those of you who’ve donated to the blog.  This thing works like one big job application for me, which thus far hasn’t made me rich, so it’s you folks that have kept the blog running.  I’ve received donations ranging from $5 to $300 dollars (and a 2005 HP!), and believe me, I ain’t playin’ the stock market with it (though I do occasionally donate some to a local bar…. but only when The Hills is on at home and I need to watch hockey.  ITS FOR THE GOOD OF THE BLOG, BRIANNA.)

We hit our first 30,000 visit month!  Let’s keep growing this thing. 

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Now!

*unggh* MOMMMM!

Onto the “just how seriously do we take the Canadiens?” question.  Which, I hope is a short conversation in the Penguins locker room right now.

Very.

As we’ve previously discussed, their less-than-thrilling rope-a-dope style continues to be oddly effective.  Instead of three minutes, however, they generally take beatings for three periods, only to land massive haymakers at the end of six of their last 11 fights.

At times, you get the feeling that a Pittsburgh player could just stop in the neutral zone with the puck and Montreal would leave him be ’til he tried to cross the red line.  It’s like the world’s longest game of red rover, and the Canadiens are a bunch of WWE wrestlers who’ve interlocked hands.

….We call Malkin! over…

I don’t even know what to say anymore, which, I get the vibe, is a similar feeling Bylsma and Bodreau have had.  Someone has to coach their way around this Canadiens team, and I get the hunch hard work and go-go-go isn’t the answer.  I’d like to see more patience, and a “don’t fire ’til you see the whites of his eyes” mentality on Halak (and maybe give him some of the Big Cess treatment).  When a goalie’s hot, contrary to popular opinion, I’m not of the “shoot more, shoot from everywhere” mindset.  You just end up keeping him warm and alert, not to mention you’re wasting valuable possessions.

Confident fella.

Stanley Cup champions have to find a variety of ways to win, have to be versatile.  We’re gonna find out in the next week if the Penguins are as one dimensional as a commenter recently suggested.

{PS – is it possible to not be crazy-intrigued by Subban?  He’s the bright light for Montreal right now, just a super-interesting guy/player.}

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Johan Franzen had a thousand goals and fourteen assists in a 7-1 Red Wings win last night.  Yesterday, I suggested Detroit would win handily (4-1, I think?) just to make all the Sharks supporters “poop just a little”.  And shat themselves, they have.

This musta felt like groundhog ....game?

I’ve never heard so much talk about a potential 3-0 comeback. 

My dad always talked about how hard it was to get that fourth win in a series to close a team out.  Which is doubly scary, since the pressure-pendulum has swung the Sharks way.  The ball is in your court now, fellas. 

My prediction:  Wings take a close game five in San Jose, but San Jose pulls their sh*t together and wins in Detroit in game six.  I also predict that if I’m right on that, the media is going to drag us to hell and back with overreactions about Thornton’s legacy, Marleau’s future, and other mind-numbing circular arguments.

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I heard a few “end of an era” talks about Detroit – the one I’ve linked to there is especially…. what’s a PC word for retarded?  I’ve done some research on the Wings (ooo, I’m a journalist), and here’s what I’ve discovered:

Henrik's Zetterbeard

Players under contract until 2013:

Pavel Datsyuk
Johan Franzen
Henrik Zetterberg
Dan Cleary
Valtteri Filpula
Brian Rafalski
Niklas Kronwall
Brad Stuart

Yes.  They’re going to be terrible.  Especially with Triple Gold Club Member Mike Babcock as their coach (47 years old, a Stanley Cup, Olympic Gold, World Championship Gold, World Junior Gold, and 10 wins in the Stanley Cup finals in the past six seasons)

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Back to Canucks-Blackhawks today, round two in Vancouver.  Will the Canucks win?  Will the reffing be atrocious?  WILL CECIL FIELDER ON SKATES SCORE ANOTHER GOALIE “MAULING” HAT-TRICK?  Also, Boston plays.  I’m calling Philly by two.

Last question of the day:  I need help spelling two things.   1) hattrick, hat trick, hat-trick    (2) commentor, commenter… or …commentisaurus rex? (Be thankful I don’t refer to friends of the blog as “puck buddies”, like my favourite hockey site Puck Daddy.)

TGIF!  Have a great weekend folks.

So, does Darren McCarty not have teeth, or does he just choose not to wear them?  And as a follow up, which of those two things would be more messed up?

Suit, check. Shaved, check. Teeth, f**k it.

On the “doesn’t have them” hand, he’s just said eff it.  I’m not doin’ the whole teeth thing.  People know I played hockey, they know I was a tough, they don’t expect me to have any chompers.  It’s a hassle, it’s expensive, I’m just not doin’ it.  I don’t care if I’m an analyst with Versus.  I’m not going through with it. (note: I actually like having him on the panel there.  A little personality never hurt anyone.)

On the ”chooses not to wear them” hand, he’s completely socially oblivious.  Because he knows enough to have the teeth, but doesn’t think TV is the right time to be wearing them.  He’s gone through the whole procedure.  Dentist appointments, fittings, root canals, who knows.  But he deems national television an unworthy tooth-sporting event.  I guess he didn’t think many people were gonna see him.  After all, he is on Versus.  BOOM!  So if not then…. WHEN?

My best guess:  He knows he looks better with them in, but they inhibit his ability to speak clearly.  You know, without having a lisp or something.  (Which probably just comes from getting your brain puchisized for free for a dozen+ years, but hey, I’m fine with blaming the teeth.)

{Random tooth tale: My college teammate got a new retainer-style front jib right before our road trip to Minneapolis.  We went out that night after our game for his 21st birthday.  Gets cross-eyed drunk (t-bombs at Brothers), goes home and pukes in the little hotel garbage can by the desk.  The next day, he wakes up at 4:45 hungover as all hell and frantic about missing our 5:00 a.m. team bus.  He throws his stuff together but can’t find his tooth.  So he has to check, y’know?  Nauseous and near-puking, he looks in the can and sees a glimmer of steel from the retainer of his front tooth.  ….And plunges his hand in.  GAG.}

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Sharks/Wingys

Last night the Detroit Red Wings blew a two-goal lead at home to the always clutch, unwaveringly relentless Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau.  You just can’t beat consistency when it comes from team leaders.  (“…well you should, cause I’m layin’ it on pretty thick.”)

Great goal. 

Frankly, Jimmy Howard let them down.  I don’t care how many great saves he made over the course of the night – the Shark’s first tally in the dying seconds of the first period was a terrible, momentum-swinging moment, and the goal line sneaker is, as usual, frowned upon.

For my money, Marleau wasn't NEARLY excited enough after scoring.

I swear to god, when it was 2-0 Wings I almost tweeted “Was there anyone out there who didn’t think the Wings were going to pump San Jose tonight?”  And really, it still would’ve been a fair question.  Didn’t we all think that the first game at the Joe was going to be an “oh yeahhhh, now I remember, the RED WINGS, right…” night?

But  San Jose didn’t give up against a tough team in their home barn, and the big boys answered the bell when it was rung.  If you’re a Bill Simmons reader, you know the value of them somehow having the “no one believed in us” factor (the same way the Coyotes did), despite being a one seed.  That’s a dangerous combination, no?

Two things: 

1) Sometimes when a team is down 3-0, you can pretty much stop watching the series.  But with the reputations of these two teams (choking dogs, straight-up winners, respectively), doesn’t this kinda fit the formula for a series that could still get real scary, real quick, IF yaknowhatImean?  I say the Red Wings win the next game handily, like, 4-1 or so, just to make even the most ardent Sharks supporter poop just a little.

2) In fairness, San Jose does look like the team who’ll be moving on, which makes me uber-excited for the Western Conference finals.  Either series would be awesome (vs. Van or vs. Chi), because all three teams have fan bases and teams that can never seem to get over the hump, but deserve to.  Looking into the future: I think I’d pick the Sharks to beat Chicago, but not Vancouver.  I’ll explain when the time comes.

Pitt beats Montreal two-spit

Thus far, this series is only interesting for Penguins and Habs fans, which is probably somewhere near 50% of the total fans of the sport thanks to bandwagonners and traditionalists.  Watching the Habs is like watching a cup-winning Devils team, only without the confidence.

And really, that’s it: Montreal is playing this well because they lack confidence (umm, and they’re smart), so that know they have to play the perfect team defensive game to have any hope.  Whiiiiich they keep doing.  So when they run into a hot (decent?) goalie, the mere 18 shots they’ve generated in two of the four games is simply not going to get it done, even with shutting down the Penguins high-flyin’ offense.

Just another Mexican-Alaskan spending the lockout in the ECHL

Sorry Habs fans, but you’ve got too much skill and talent on that team to be this boring.  This isn’t who you are. 

Last thought: How badly do you think Scott Gomez’s career highlight reel was squashed by being at his peak during “The Devils Years”? (Which is a memory that makes most hockey fans shudder).  I may have said this before, but if I could pick any guy to carry the puck in on the powerplay, I’m going with him.  He’s just so light on his skates, man.

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That’s all for today people.  Join me at 1PM EST on Puck Daddy’s site for a playoff hockey chat.  I’ll be saying things like “oh big time”, “but that’s just not true” and maybe even “arrrriba!”  Don’t miss out.

The floor is now yours to discuss McCarty’s teeth.

I did a bad job of explaining my predictions before the second round (less “bad job” and more “completely didn’t do it”), and now I have the advantage of having seen a game from each series.  So, my bad on that.  Thus, in the interest of keeping this entry from War and Peace-like length, I’ll cut to the chase on why I picked whom.

I picked Detroit, and explained it was because I can’t pick against The Zettersyuk.  I intend to do an old school, serious piece of prose about the poetic way Datsyuk plays later today.  Sheer artistry.

Boy, I never want this to happen again. ...wish I was on THAT team...

I picked Vancouver on the Luongo-is-better-than-Niemi tiebreaker, and because I only recently discovered that bandwagon Blackhawks fans are plutonium-level-volatile right now.  They’re entering the “holy crap, if we don’t win this year….” panic phase , where they’re studying salary cap rules at all hours of the night, and realizing that Hossa is basically becoming a one-man Buffalo Bills of the early ’90′s. WIDE RIGHT!  WIDE RIGHT!

I picked Pittsburgh because…. forget it, same reasons you did.

I picked Boston on the Rask-is-better-than-Boucher tiebreaker, and because Jeff Carter and Simon Gagne aren’t playing.  Also because Philly likes effing with it’s own fans by pretending it wants to win the cup, when really all the owners want is to get deep enough to get a few more home games for revenue. (Emery is out for the year?  It’s trade deadline time?  I have an idea…. what it we ride out this average goalie/great team thing and see where it takes us?  Haven’t tried that yet.)

I will say this about the Boston/Philly series – I would have predicted these two teams to be in the second round at the start of the year.  Surprisingly, they both struggled during the regular season, but I do actually think they’re more than capable of being competitive with the best teams.  The right eight teams made it from the East, and if you had looked at the rosters they went with for playoffs like eight months ago, you probably would’ve picked Boston to beat Buffalo, and Philly to beat Jersey.

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During Olympic time, I wrote a blog on Luongo the night before the gold medal game, on the topic of him making me feel slightly uneasy when he’s in net, for whatever reason.  (I took it down for fear of looking like a dissident at such a positive time.)

Guh. Aeweh.

To me, this is his career-defining series. 

Team vs. team, Chicago and Vancouver are pretty even – maybe Chicago is a little better.  Vancouver’s advantage is supposed to be in net.  When he’s won, he’s almost always had the better team.  When he’s lost, he’s almost always had the worse team.  He’s not getting any younger, and this is one of the first occasions I can remember that it’s his series to win or lose. 

If he wants to be the player Canuck fans think he is, now is his time to shine, like the bright lights hitting his greasy hair.

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My buddy bought a Phoenix Coyotes playoff ticket package, which for those of you that don’t know, means you buy them right through game seven of the finals.  If your team doesn’t make it that far, you get reimbursed.

If they don’t call him soon to offer him tickets for next year instead of just sending him a cheque back (which it appears they’re going to do), it’ll be disheartening as a guy rooting for the team to succeed here.  Coyote’s marketing: he’d take the tickets, I’m telling you.  Make those calls while their season is fresh in everyone’s mind.  DO THIS RIGHT!

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The guys from PTI asked Dwight Howard to pick who he thought should be the league MVP, and he named two players, neither of which were Lebron.  What a hater.

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I’ve seen the Marc Savard reaction to his overtime winner about eighty-hundred times thus far, and I’m still 100% on getting chills.  I love that shit.  Great stick-to-crowd toss.

"Back in black (hit the sack) been too long I'm glad to be back"

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I just found out that Jaroslav Halak made 800K this year.  Vesa Toskala made 4SHMIL.  If you believe that there’s any justice in the universe, expect a bank error in Halak’s favour, where he collects 3.2 million, then passes GO for an extra 200 bucks.

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Have to mention this (sorry in advance): yesterday I heard “throwing the snake” used as the all-time-funniest euphemism EVAR.  Some guy, just off the cuff: I bet Jim Ballsillie is so depressed after losing the Coyotes he just sits around “throwing the snake” all day, if you know what I’m sayin’.

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And last but not least, some quick thoughts on each series for ya, while I’m on my way out the door:

San Jose/Detoit:  San Jose has had success so far in playoffs with the complete and utter absence of it’s best players.  Last night, Thornton got the GWG and Heatley had three assists.  This should scare a lot of teams in the West, like say, Detroit.

Vancouver/Chicago: Don’t expect another VanCity beat down.  That Chicago team is too talented, cocky and proud to get run-over like a dog on the highway again.  They need their young gunners to act like THIS DOG and pull them in the right direction, as I fully expect them to do.

Montreal/Pittsburgh: Hey, lookit them Canadiens go. Part of the reason Detoit is so good is because they’ve always been able to get offense from skill (Datsyuk/Zetterberg) or grit (Holmstrom/Franzen).  Jordan Staal was the second part of Pittsburghs offensive equation (and the first part of its defensive one).  Washington didn’t have a second way to score against Halak, and I think it’ll really hurt Pitt that they lost a big chunk of their second style too.  Seems like Halak can make every first save in the book, and Montreal’s D is doing a great job of clearing away second chance opportunities.

Philly/Boston:  The best news for Pittsburgh, who will eventually win that series or I’m folding my blog and becoming a monk, is that this Philly/Boston series is close, so it’s going to be a war.  The teams hate each other.  It’s a battle of attrition, and the winning side is going to limp in front of the conference-finals-firing-squad on one limb.  Pittsburgh, Merry Christmas…. you’re in the finals.

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In case you missed it:  On Friday I uncovered footage of Ovechkin and the evil genius boss who sent him to Earth to capture the Stanley Cup.  You can watch it here.

The Brooks Laich changing a tire story is great.  Our tendancy is to blow things out of proportion, so lets not do that here – it was just a really refreshing thing to hear.  As I’ve been saying, it makes me proud to be a hockey player.  Or maybe just a human.

Laich

I learned to change a tire in the summer of 2008, because I read somewhere it’s one of the basic things you need to be able to do to consider yourself a man.  That, tie a tie, and something else…. climb a frozen waterfall in bowling shoes or something.

The year I was taught (and by “taught”, I mean holy-crap-its-so-easy-Paula-Abdul-could-figure-it-out) I was staying at the Gillies and training before my AHL tryout with the Hershey Bears.  Mapquest told me it was about five hours from Long Island, and our check-in and first meeting was around 3:00PM.  I was on the road by 7:30AM to give myself lots of time.  Sadly, my GPS took me down Manhattan’s 34th Avenue, which slowed me considerably.  The second I got through the Holland Tunnel, I saw open road, and hit the gas.  Got ‘er right up to 70 before hitting a pothole deeper than a Jack Handy thought.  Immediately, my car started pulling hard to the right.  F**k.

I’m talkin’, car packed with literally everything I owned, and I had to unload the trunk to get at the spare.  Baseball glove, lamps, pillows, the works.

Anyway, because I knew what to do, I coasted into town on a bike tire just in time to check-in, and start the hellacious injury-riddled season that led to me being a writer.  Shoulda known that was “don’t go” sign.  At least I got a Hershey chocolate bar at check-in, I guess.

Wonder if the climate in SJ is better than his college days at Wisco

(1) San Jose Sharks vs. (5) Detroit Red Wings 

This is a tough one to call, because of the mental gift the Sharks have been given; this time, hardly anyone expects them to win.

Even though they’re the one seed, they’re playing the perceived one seed.  And for Thronton, Boyle and crew, they’ve never had the luxury of even semi-underdog status before.  70% of people are picking Detroit to win, which is SO. NICE. if you’re on San Jose.  It free’s you up to just play.  Not sure why it’s different, but it is.

So then it’s obvious that I’m picking…..

DETROIT IN SEVEN

Wait, what?  Here’s how I made my pick:

Goaltending: It’s a pick ‘em, as far as I’m concerned.  Evgeni Nabakov is supposed to be better, and has lots of experience.  Unfortunately, he hasn’t exactly built a reputation as a clutch playoff performer during those experiences.  And we have no idea about Howard in playoffs yet.  We do know that in the same game he can be good, he can give up a shot off the draw to Vernon Fiddler that hasn’t gone in since pee wee hockey.  Sure, it’s a factor that could affect the series if one guy gets too hot or too cold, but I’m expecting them both to be right around par.

Defense: Slight edge to Detroit.  Studs like Lidstrom and Rafalski are getting a little older, but they can still get it done.  Niklas Kronwall is one of my new favourite players (I LOVE THIS COMMERCIAL), and Brad Stuart is above average.  San Jose has Dan Boyle, but after that all you have is the corpse of Rob Blake and Douglas Murray.

Oh right, thaaat's what scoring feels like.

Offense: Both teams have great forwards, just in different ways.  Datsyuk and Zetterberg are unlike any other two forwards in the NHL – talented, shifty, f***ing crazy smart, and defensively aware.  San Jose’s top dogs are good at… getting goals.  But, there is three of them.  Then there’s the bonus guy: Joe Pavelski.  He’s the wild card (who’s off to a great start in the series) that can put SJ over the top.  Can he keep being super-human?  Will Detroits gritty studs (Holmstrom and Franzen) prove to be too playoff-built to be stopped? WILL I STOP ASKING RHETORICAL QUESTIONS?  (I only “kinda like” this commercial in comparison, but still good)

Coach: Babcock.  BabcockBabcockBabcock.  I’d pick him vs. a super-coach that combined the know-how of Scotty Bowman, Phil Jackson and Bill Belichick.  Mclellan is apparently a good coach, but Mike B could coach the Jersey Shore cast into British accents.

So, when it came down Detroit’s experience and confidence vs. San Jose’s first crack at mental underdoggery, I gotta take the uber-beast, Zetsyuk.  Datsberg.  Whatever…. they are just way too special to pick against.

Other series predictions explained later, but I’ve picked Boston, Pittsburgh and Vancouver for my other three.  The Vancouver pick goes against everything I said about Chicago all year, but after watching a series where goaltending mattered so much (the Halak v Varladore trial), I’m taking Luongo over Niemi every time.

TGIF, kids.  Our weekend plans have been taken care of with the $26 we spent yesterday – a $13 inflatible pool float with a cup holder, and 18 Coors light for $13.  Weeee!

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One more thing – Just tinkering around this morning, and I discovered a lil conversation between Ovechkin and the evil genius from his home planet, who sent him to Earth to capture the elusive Stanley Cup.  It’s pretty intense.  Watch it here.

The Phoenix Coyotes are done.

They pushed the two-time defending conference champion Detroit Red Wings to the brink before petering out in game seven, effectively losing to the conference’s one seed dressed as a five.

Sadly, game seven looked like the last lap of a 1500 meter Olympic race, where the leader came out of the gate sprinting instead of pacing himself.  There was simply nothing left in the Coyotes tank.

Detroit took it to them for the majority of the game, starting from a Martin Hanzal penalty early in the first, and carrying on until Nicklas Lidstrom’s second goal, for which he immediately looked sincerely apologetic. 

Positives were few and far between for the home squad.  One, was that it might have been the best performance from a goalie who gave up six goals I’ve ever seen.  The Wings were just relentless, and as you expect from a proven team, just when they needed to get it done they got big performances from their stars.

GeeDubGee

Datsyuk looked unflappable.  Captain Nick Lidstrom sniped a pair.  Even some sasquatch named Bodd Tertuzzi or something scored.  When the core of a team who’s won the Cup once and the conference twice in the last two playoffs has the switch flipped to “on”, you expect it to look like that 6-1 win did.  (I found myself cursing the Coyotes for beating LA and Nashville down the stretch… wait for playoffs!  Dress your back-ups back-up!  LET GRETZKY COACH.)

The Coyotes were missing Shane Doan, arguably the biggest cog in their team-first machine.  With him in the lineup, who’s to say how momentum changes?  Doan played like a man possessed when he was in the lineup, which would undeniably affected Detroits older d-corp over a long series.  It could have been one more straw on the back of Detroits camel (what?).

Oh we're so totally gonna hug right now.

Between the pipes, there’s only one play I’m pinning on the Almighty Bryz – Brad Stuart’s goal, which was Detroits fourth, scored in the period’s dying seconds, HAS to be stopped.  I realize it’s a breakaway and a tough save, but great goalies come up big in big moments, and that fourth goal was a twist of the knife in Phoenix’s side.  And it was Brad Stuart half-falling, not Pavel Datsyuk opening up before pulling it cross-crease.  Phoenix needed a save there, and when they didn’t get it, I would’ve flipped to a different game had one been on.

At the other end, Jimmy Howard made 32 saves in a one (bad) goal against performance.  If you’re like me, you didn’t feel fully comfortable that he would play well in there (the same way Luongo makes me feel).  And though he did play well (great at times), he had the luxury of not facing any tough shots until his team was up about three goals.  Not taking anything away from the guy (who again, 1.00 G.A. in his first game seven, rookie year), but it’s a little easier to play when the team in front of you looks like they put in a pre-game cheat code.

So that’s where it ends for this year’s Cinderella story.  The carriage is a pumpkin again, but good will come of this, Coyotes fans.  You guys got your team “back”, a lot of attention, and plenty of hope for the future.  And Wojtek Wolski!

(I’m writing a more thorough analysis for a column I’ve pitched to the AZ Republic as a bookend to my pre-season column.  I’ll keep you posted on that)

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As we move closer to round two’s start, I’ve been thinking about a comment the blog received yesterday (totally random thought before I forget – blog hits have been killer for a non-team-specific site.  Almost 9,000 hits last week or something like that, so thanks so much for your support.  And that includes you crazy Maple Leaf fans sent this way via DownGoesBrown).  It’s a valid point on why predictions are interesting to read – basically, it’s fun to assess what’s fair to expect, not what will happen.  The comment is towards the bottom, by reader “Brett”.  Check it out here.

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Mini preview, Capitals Habs:

Here’s what’s “fair to expect” tonight.

Underdogs often succeed by outworking the superior club that’s trying to get by on talent alone.  And thus far, Washington has tried to get by on talent alone.

Now it’s like the Capitals are in the library working on a bonus credit project they need just to pass at the end of the semester, while their friends are out drinking because their semester is over.  Had the Caps just done the work in the first place, they wouldn’t be in this situation.  (*author may or may not be able to relate to this)

Halak's eyes are on Ovy.

Anyways, if work ethic is equal, which it should be in a game seven, the Capitals will smoke the Habs like salmon, the same way Detroit showed who they really were when the chips were down.

The Caps, for all the unnecessary abuse they take {and they do take abuse, it’s crazy.  I’m no Caps fan, but it’s like old school hockey people are annoyed that they have the gall to think they can win playing a tic-tac-toe style over a (*coughslightly-more-Canadian*cough) boom-bam-hit-and-jam playoff style}, the Capitals have won some playoff games with this team. 

Their style is money.  If they had half a goalie, they’d be unstoppable (I guess Theodore is small enough to qualify for half).  For all of you that want less concussions and more skill, cheer for teams like the Capitals that apparently have a team-imposed “everyone touch it before we shoot” rule.  Something about their style reminds me of ultimate frisbee.

Halak looked unbeatable in game six, but that had to be a tiring night.  Players always have trouble falling asleep after high-intensity games - more on that in the future, it’s awful.  So he gets a short sleep, hops on a plane, maybe touches the ice once in two days before tonights game, and tries to give a repeat performance.  But if (no no, when), the Caps generate another 40-50 shots (money on the higher number there), I can’t see him doing it again unless he’s in crazy good shape.  Hey, maybe Price’s start will end up helping him in this series after all. 

Montreal has one thing Phoenix didn’t – a couple guys who can make game-breaking plays.  Cammalleri (and even Gomez if he blacks out) can do it.

Montreal’s best hope is to challenge Washington’s shaky goaltending and offense-first defenseman in the first period (after weathering the initial storm), and see if they can’t get one more out of a jello-legged Halak.  Cause you never know.  You never know.

But sometimes, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect.

5-2 Capitals.

Predictions are the most ridiculous thing I have to do in my line of work.  People who write about sports for a living shouldn’t be rewarded for their ability to predict the future, but rather for their ability to cover the past.

But whatever, it’s fun to do anyways, so put on your seatbelt.  There’s some more tough calls to be made.

In reality, there are only five legitimate Stanley Cup hopefuls:

Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals
Chicago Blackhawks
Detroit Red Wings
San Jose Sharks

Quick thoughts on each club:

Penguins:  The Penguins are an all-around solid team.  Good at every position, play as a unit, and have proven they can do it.  Plus they have some Cindy kid or something I heard about somewhere.  And didn’t some guy on their team win the Conn Smythe recently?

Capitals:  A one-dimensional offensive juggernaut that is so strong at it’s one dimension, they don’t look so bad in other areas.  If the other team never has the puck, you don’t have to play defense.  A nice perk.

Blackhawks: Grossly talented, huge fans of riding shirtless in limos - you almost get the impression that it’s leaders (Toews and Kane, mainly) are so young they don’t even realize the pressure.  Naturally, this makes them twice as dangerous, like how baby scorpions are more venemous than the big daddy’s.

Red Wings:  What’s talented, gritty and experienced all over?  Datsyuk and Zetterberg are disgustingly good, and they’re up for the Selke every year since they lead the league in take-aways.  So nothing special, just good D, nice grit, good goaltending and great coaching.

Sharks:  The big line they rely on to win doesn’t play with any youthful pep.  What they do do, is put skill and smarts in front of quality goaltending and get the job done.  Assuming the job they were trying to get done is making the playoffs.

So!  To the results show:

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

CHICAGO vs. DETROIT

This series makes me nervous to even think about, there’s so much talent on the ice.  Did you see game 82, where Detroit had to win to get the fifth seed?  Teams like Edmonton and Toronto were watching that on TV going, “man, someday I’d like to play in that league.”

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

PITTSBURGH vs. NEW JERSEY

What sucks about the East is, Pittsburgh puked away the TV dream of a conference finals with Washington by placing fourth.  What they almost certainly did do, is guarantee us getting to see that series in the second round of playoffs.

The Pittsburgh/Washington series is kind of a crapshoot.  It went seven games last year, and if both teams are healthy, it very well could go that far again this year.  One of these two teams will be missing guys by then, and the healthier team will prevail.  If they’re both healthy… what’s changed from last year?  Knuble and Leopold?  Not all that much.

For the two and three seeded Buffalo and New Jersey, it means that one of them gets to prove they were the real deal this year by earning the right to lose to Pittsburgh in the conference finals.  Quite an honor.  How bout that gift of a bracket?  Buffalo, Boston, Philly and New Jersey.  Anyone’s guess.

STANLEY CUP FINALS

PITTSBURGH vs. HOLY CRAP I HAVE NO IDEA WHO WOULD WIN THE SERIES BEFORE WOULD BRIAN CAMPBELL BE BACK DOES HOWARD WITHSTAND THE PLAYOFF PRESSURE I BETTER PICK SOMEONE LET’S GO WITH….. DETROIT!

Pittsburgh/Detroit, huh Bourne?  Way to take it out on a limb this year.

You want a limb?  Fine, here goes….

….AND THE WINNER IS…

THE PENGUINS!  NO WAIT!  THE RED WINGS!  NONO, PENGUINS!

THIS IS WHY THE PLAYOFFS ARE FUN, PEOPLE.

In all seriousness.  Ahem.  I choose:

The Pittsburgh Penguins. Sorry about the boring answer.  I’d love to see the Hawks or someone win.

Hey, the Isles dynasty was built on a core group of dudes who knew how to win.  I see a formula here (ignore the fact that Detroit has it too, and now that they have solid goaltending, are a much better model of the old Islanders).  Whatever, I had to pick someone, and Detroit is the more likely to lose in round one.  I’m taking Pittsburgh.  Good luck to all!

I’m picking the Sharks to win the Cup.

*waits*

AhhhhGotcha!  They suck.  Let’s make some picks.

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SAN JOSE SHARKS (1)

vs.

COLORADO AVALANCHE (8)

Before the season, I didn’t have Colorado pegged to be a playoff team.  Halfway through the year I looked Barry Melrose level wrong on that (y’know, the guy who didn’t think Stamkos was gonna amount to much of an NHLer?  Love the guy, but he’s building a solid reputation for his wrongitude).  By the end of the season, I had almost come full circle back to right.

Expect a much better playoff performance this year

They’ve got a ton of badass young talent.  But I wouldn’t bet on Colorado to win this series if Vegas doubled the odds and you paid for my wager.

Contrary to my “they suck” joke about San Jose to open this blog, I don’t think they suck.  I’m picking them to go deep – like, conference finals deep – but I wouldn’t pick them to win a series against Chicago or Detroit (both would be epic series), and the bad news for SJ is, both those teams happen to be in the Western Conference.  Which they’re in too.

I think you’ll see a great first round out of big Joe and crew, cause they’ll be fired up as all hell to prove themselves.  More than any team in the NHL this post-season, they know an early round exit means a bunch of people getting new zip codes in the off-season.

Colorado’s pace will be amazing, and Stastny will be money.  But with Nabokov in net, the Avs upset hopes are some of the lowest in the league this post-season. (Here comes an Avs sweep after that prediction, huh?)

PREDICTION:  SHARKS in FIVE

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CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (2)

vs.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS (7)

Shocking truth – I don’t think Chicago’s goaltending is bad as every human on Earth seems to think it is.

Youuu don't get to play, bud, sorry.

Now Washington – Washington has two horrific goaltenders.  Antti Niemi and Cristobal Huet may not be the elites of the league, but they certainly aren’t the dregs either.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s blog, Nashville – despite reaching 100 POINTS this year – was EVEN in goal differential during five-on-five regular season play.  Well that’s not very good, is it?

If they struggled to create offense in the regular season, I can’t imagine it’s going to go much better in the tighter checking post-season.  And if you could sum up the general point I’ll be making in my predictions, it’s that “teams that score by committee are f****d”.  Depth is good.  No-big-guns is bad (though I will race you to pick Hornqvist in fantasy hockey next year).

In reality, the Predators are not going to lose because of the Predators.  They’re going to lose because they’re playing a team that’s gone all-in this year.  Every chip they’ve got has been pushed to the middle, with very little regard to what happens after this season.  This equals one thing: an all-star team.

Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Kris Versteeg, Patrick Sharp, Dave Bolland, Dustin Byfuglien….. really I could just type roster names til I’m out of them.  This one won’t be close.

PREDICTION: HAWKS in FOUR

*****

VANCOUVER CANUCKS (3)

vs.

LOS ANGELES KINGS (6)

As Bob McKenzie adamantly pointed out today, the LA Kings finished two – count ‘em, two – points behind Vancouver in the standings. It’s not so much a “3 vs 6″ matchup as it is two 4.5 seeds going at it.

This is one of those series you know is going to go six or seven games, but I’m not sure why.  Vancouver is better in net.  And up front.  And on D.

Easy jokes aside, these two are full blown difference makers.

That’s not to say LA isn’t strong in all those places, because they are (101 points!).  But those Sedins have gone from point-getting and bothersome to venemous and unbelievable.  Both sides have game breakers in this one, which is why it’s going to be a blast (which, incidentally, is why Boston/Buffalo is going to be a painfully long, close series – they don’t have any).  It just so happens that the Canucks have the better ones.

Luongo finally took a step passed his “never won anything” reputation in the Olympics.  As shaky as it may have been, or whatever you may think of him, mentally, that’s huge for a guy’s confidence.  You want him in net over either of the Kings tenders, every time.

The Canucks will miss Willie Mitchell.  He’s a big part of that d-corps, but he’s not the only piece.  The Canucks will get it done, but the Kings will take a lot out of them.

PREDICTION: CANUCKS in SEVEN

*****

PHOENIX COYOTES (4)

vs.

DETROIT RED WINGS (5)

You may remember, eight or nine days ago, I wrote a column on how unfortunate (but inevitable) it was the the ‘Yotes would draw the Red Wings in the first round. 

Nothing has changed since then.

Love this picture....

{Well, one thing has – there’s the movement, started via Five For Howling‘s Travis Hair (@TravisHair) on Twitter, to have Coyote fans throw fake rattlesnakes on the ice, I think after warm-up (check out #ThrowTheSnake on twitter).  I know folks will be worried about it costing the ‘Yotes a penalty, but it rarely does after the first occurance at any given game. 

You’ll get a warning, so just don’t do it after the first “hey stop that” (if the team has half a marketing brain – and I think they do – they’ll embrace this.  They could sell them, jack the price up and cash in).  Either way, it’s a great bit of potential hockey culture down here in the desert.  I’m tellin’ ya man, the fans need something to call their own, and this can be the start of Phoenix’s first “own thing”.  I’m on board.  But anyways, back to the series….}

These are the two best coached teams in the NHL.  Babcock coached his team through a kabillion injuries and somehow got them to 100 points for the bloody TENTH STRAIGHT YEAR, while Dave Tippett took a team most people picked to finish one place behind last, and at times, teased being the conference’s best.

The Coyotes have rock solid goaltending in Ilya Bryzgalov, which was going to be their huge advantage in a playoff series.  Unfortunately for them, Jimmy Howard found his game at the NHL level, learned to battle, and got himself into MVP talk, somehow.  At the very least, he’s a Calder top two.

But here’s where I rehash that same old point – when a game needs to be broken open, Coyotes fans will bite their fingernails halfway off everytime Henrik Zetterberg or Pavel Datsyuk has the puck.  Scoring by committee isn’t impossible, you just hope that your committee doesn’t have a first round defensive opponent of Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart and crew.

At the other end, guys like Lepisto, Vandermeer and Michalek (okay, and Jovo at the defensive end) – as good as their years were – probably aren’t going to be able to stop the mix of Datsyuk/Zetterberg skill with Franzen/Holmstrom grit.

Here’s the thing.  I WANT the Coyotes to win.  I want this team to look like a great “buy low” deal for the contemplating future owners.  I want a hockey culture here.  I’m jumping in an RV with about a dozen other guys, driving up an hour before the game, getting my white out on and cheering like everyone else (yes, for the ‘Yotes).  But as a sports writer, I have to be honest.  I’d be surprised if the Coyotes won.

But then again, Coyotes fans, you may recall…. I’ve been wrong about them before.  Here’s to hoping they surprise me again.

PREDICTION: RED WINGS in SIX

*****

(Leastern Conference picks later today)

ITS MASTERS WEEEEEEEK!

And every other great sports week.  Let’s dive in:

The twenty-team BBHL (Bourne’s Blog fantasy Hockey League) is down to two, and somehow, someway, I’m still alive (didn’t expect to add that to my BWE {best week ever}), did ya?  And that’s with Carey Price as one of my two goalies.  Yeesh. 

I’ll admit, I got muchos lucky in the semi-finals – drew the guy who wasn’t paying attention enough to start the right guys or even have a chat (read: make a bet), but I’ll take it.  Also, if you’re the dude who wasn’t paying attention, you have no chance of being invited back into the league next year (…without heavy bribery).

But whatever, I’m still happy.  On to the finals!

*****

Le Tigre has a press conference at 11:00 a.m. my time (2 EST) – I’m not going to live blog it, mostly cause I have other stuff I’m supposed to be doing (like, um, my job), but still, expect a tweet barrage.  Expect that all week, really.  I predict Tigs to announce Dr. Drew as his new caddy.

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The funniest thing George Lopez does is call himself a comedian.  Sorry, I had to get that out of my system.  Back to being positive…

*****

Sick camera angle.

The Detroit Red Wings are only two points out of fifth in the West, just behind the Nashville Predators – If they catch them, Phoenix plays them in round one, which would but about as lucky as Ben Stiller in Meet The Parents (that poor guy just can’t catch a break!). 

 …..Oh god I just checked the schedule… Phoenix plays Nashville on Wednesday.  Who’s Phoenix’s ECHL affiliate?  Can they call those guys up?  Can I sign a one day deal to help them lose?  Can we dress reader “zyllyx”?  Make the Coyotes wear rollerblades?  SOMETHING?!?

*****

The worst thing to happen to the Washington Capitals Stanley Cup hopes is drawing the Flyers in round one, which as it stands right now, they would.

If it’s Boston or Montreal (Montreal especially), they’ll breeze through that first round.  Philly, unfortunately for the Caps, plays a bit of a physical game, and is suffering from the frustration of earning the awful moniker ”best team that never gets it done” in the East (maybe the league – San Jose has had a couple playoff collapses, but the Flyers have been legit contenders for a decade and never got it done).  It’d suck (for them) to have their dangly skill team to face a group of hungry, aggressive dudes.

*****

I got the right guy in the picture.... right?

This whole “Henrik Sedin leading the league” thing is pretty awesome.

Nobody in the league has chemistry like him and his brother, as evidenced by his highlight reel.  When you watch Sid or Ovy’s, for the most part, you get the miraculous one man rushes, nifty moves, clever dekes and the lightning shots.

Henrik’s reel is far more impressive from the “utilizing your teammates” standpoint.  He fires behind-the-back no-lookers that end up directly resulting in goals.  Not neat “almosts” or plays that guys go to the bench and say “that woulda been awesome”, but tape to tape, spinning, no look, tap in goals.  They (Daniel and Henrik) almost never have to shoot the puck through a goalie, since they can just dish it around him.

Very impressive stuff.

*****

THE MASTERRRRRSSSSSSS!

The par three tournament is tomorrow, the press conferences are today, my orgasm is Sunday and the tournament starts Thursday.

For last years list of “Why I Love The Masters“, follow that link – that was puked out stream-of-consciouness style, so I’m sure I could add even more to it. 

Expect Tiger to start slow, but be a threat if he can find a way to make the cut (even when he’s been active, his first round at the Masters is his worst, with a stroke average above 72 on day one).  I’m pumped!  I’ll be live blogging it Sunday from one of those Cover It Live things if you want to watch it with me!

Predictions coming Wednesday.

*****

What a way to start the baseball season – with a Yankees loss (in Fenway).  Ahhh, spring.  Inhale, exhale that loss…. smells fresh.  Go Mets!

*****

My buddy Nick gets to my place tonight, so I don’t expect a lot of double blog entries, even though this is the ultimate week for it.  But, like I said, expect the tweet barrage.  You’ll be hearing from me!  (Go RIT!)

The battle for playoff spots in the West is always a little more intriguing when some unexpected teams blow up and have good seasons, and this is one of those years.  Phoenix, Nashville and LA are all better than I expected, and I think better than the rest of the West had hoped.

So without really any ado, here’s how I see the bubble teams finishing up:

4th, Vancouver Canucks, 52 games played, 66 points

The only reason the Canucks get a blurb in the “bubble teams” section at all is their upcoming road trip.  They set an NHL record by being gone for something like six weeks, and playing 14 straight road games (Olympic preparation in Vancouver).  They’re 22-7-1 at home, but below .500 at 10-11-1 on the road this year.  If they survive the trip at .500, they’ll be in great shape.

{Only Washington, Pittsburgh and San Jose have scored more goals than the Canucks this year, and only New Jersey, Buffalo and Chicago have given up less.  Not bad, VanCity.  Not bad.}

5th, Phoenix Coyotes, 52 games played, 63 points

The ‘Yotes have played the majority of their games to date at home in the friendly confines of Jobing.com Arena (29), where they’re a dominant 19-8-2.  On the road, the Coyotes are an even 10-10-3 (23 games), sort of how your record is supposed to look.  With a third of the season left to play, they’re in position to push for a quality playoff spot.

Have you noticed a trend in the teams that are “overachieving”?  The Coyotes, Sabres, and Avalanche all have similar team builds, to some extent.  They’re fast over big, mostly young over mostly old, they’ve got great goaltending and most importantly, their top six forwards are almost all interchangeable as ”first line” guys.  Instead of the NBA method – pay one player to be your star and build around him – they all seem to be deeper teams without “that guy” to watch out for (the top two scorers from the teams I just listed are Tim Connolly and Paul Stastny, both below a point a game at 48 points in 51 games).

The Coyotes are going to make playoffs this year, but to have any hope of moving beyond a quick round one exit, they need to finish in 5th or 6th – 7th or 8th (versus San Jose or Chicago) would be hopeless.

6th, Los Angeles Kings, 51 games played, 61 points

The Kings seem fragile, don’t they?  Points are always easier to come by before Christmas, just like wins.  When Anze Kopitar has Ryan Smyth to help him out, he’s useful, but his production has seriously slowed down.  He just doesn’t seem like a guy who can get it done when his opponents key on him, they way the real elite stars can.  That says to me he’s not ready to be “the guy” on a team that needs one.  They’re good enough to win even with him struggling, so they’ll hang on to playoffs, but you certainly get the impression they aren’t headed the right direction.

7th, Nashville Predators, 51 games played, 61 points

I almost included the Preds in the group of “overachieving teams with the same build” from the Coyotes paragraph, but in the end, I didn’t think their Dan Ellis or Pekka Rinne deserved to be in the same class as Bryzgalov, Miller and Anderson.  Nashville could be the best team to miss playoffs this year… and I see it happening.

8th, Detroit Red Wings, 51 games played, 58 points

The depressing part for the teams on the wrong side of the playoff cutoff line looking in right now is, you’re not trying to catch Detroit’s 58 points, you’re looking at Nashvilles 61.  Detroit has played with half a team all year.  They’re the best coached team in the league, with some of the best names in the entire NHL in their dressing room (even with all they lost from last year).  The Canucks and Avalanche can start stressing now about which one of them is going to get unfortunately stuck in a (4) vs. (5) battle with Detroit.

9th, Calgary Flames, 52 games played, 58 points

What the hell happened to the Flames?  I feel like I fell asleep for an hour and they dropped a half-dozen spots.  Hmm.  1-8-1 in their last ten, with six straight losses.  By all logic, the Flames should be okay:  great goaltender, maybe the best defensive trio in the league, and a couple of guys up front who can score.  For me, the major difference between their offensive firepower and the teams “overacheiving” this year, is that their goal scorers aren’t young and energetic.  They don’t have that legs churning, relentless effort type threat right now – they’re scary in the “HolyCrapDon’tLetHimShootFromThereAWww.  They scored.” type of way.

10th, Anaheim Ducks, 52 games played, 55 points

This is the difference between the Eastern and Western conference.  The 10th and 11th place teams in the West are still really good (so are the Isles, but um, I just…. crap).  The problem is, they can’t all make playoffs, and Anaheim didn’t get off to a great start.  I don’t think they’re good enough to have a huge second half and make up for it.

11th, Dallas Stars, 52 games played, 55 points

I was waiting for them to end up in this spot in the conference, and here they are.  Dallas is a good team, but when teams like Phoenix and LA are good too, it toughens up their usually soft division.

12th, Minnesota Wild, 52 games played, 54 points

I don’t know a lot about Minnesota this year, and that’s not a good sign.  I do know when you’ve pinned a chunk of your offensive hopes on Chuck Kobasew and Andrew Ebbett, you’re in a whole heap of trouble (both are good enough players, but very shutdownable.  Yep, I can make up words on my blog.)  I guess their go-to guy is Havlat, I’m just not sure what else they’ve got.  I’m sure my oddly heavy Wild readership can fill me in on them, but from what I can tell, they don’t have a hockey teams chance in Phoenix snowballs chance in an oven.

13th, St. Louis Blues, 52 games played, 54 points

I’m sticking to my guns on the Blues, especially with the addition of Davis Payne.  They’ve got good top six forwards, good goaltending, and hopefully enough D to get into contention during the last few weeks.  I still think they’ll make a push.