Devils Jenga Blocks Fall, The Sharks Flex Some Muscle

Happy Friday folks.  And believe me, it is a happy one over here!  My SOB of a brother is staying with Bri and I until Tuesday (wait… sorry mom). 

Jeff, at my neighborhood pub, Nates Third Base

You may remember Jeff from earlier blogs.  Like his coverage of the paralympics, or that time he stopped breathing a few months ago and almost died, or where I explained that sledge hockey is a well-organized car accident.  Or, you Isles fans may remember him from my Dad’s Islanders-Hall-of-Fame induction, where the team donated Jeff the money for a new, multi-thousand dollar sled for sledge hockey, which he promptly used to t-bone my uber-ghetto sled and nearly made me need my own wheelchair.  (Who needs gifts when you get to shake Alexi. Freakin’. Yashin’s hand.  *gasps, fans himself, faints.)

Either way, we’re extremely pumped to have him – wasn’t sure he was gonna make it there for a bit, now the guy’s got a new shunt and he’s brand spankin’ new.  Crazy.  I mean, overnight, the guy got a new lease on life.  Miraculous.

Anyways, we’ll be sitting at McFadden’s outside Jobing.com Arena tonight before/during the Coyotes/Red Wings game (sold out of accessible seats, boo), so feel free to come say hello if you see us.

HOCKEY!

As the New Jersey Devils remembered last night, the moment your season ends is surreal.

You’re sitting in your stalls, largely in silence.  Okay, complete silence, except for that one guy who has to be different, and is taking the tape off his socks.  Nobody wants to be the first guy to take his jersey off.  After an extended period of time, coach makes some statement to the team, usually the nicest stuff he’s said all year (unless you’re a two-seed that loses in five games).

And the finger pointing starts.... now.

I mean, anytime Logan Couture and Dwight Helminen can take the game over (and your big line gets the chance to score meaningless goals again), you have to be impressed….. don’t you?  No?  Hmm.

Well, either way, they are still a one seed, which means if (sorry, when) they get by the Avs, they would draw the lowest seeded team left.  Whoooo you probably wouldn’t pick them to beat anyways.  Ah well.  At least it won’t be a total post-season write off this year.  It’ll be like a serious car accident where nobody dies – it was horrible, but at least there’s some upside.  No one died.

*****

The only team I’ve probably been harder on this year than the Coyotes has been the Senators.  I’ve yet to give the Sens an ounce of respect.  As far as I’m concerned, they have a couple good forwards, solid defense, and mediocre goaltending.  Not exactly the formula for a fear-inducing playoff team.  Plus, fifth in the Eastern Conference rarely equals “Cup contender”.

But still, good for them for not rolling over in Pittsburgh last night.  They came to play and managed to squeak it out.  But, unfortunately, just as Sens fans (MikeB) would expect, I’m chalking that one as a loss to Pittsburgh, not a win for the Sens.  I don’t care who you’re playing, if you win the Cup the year before, and have the chance to close out your round one opponent at home in game five and blow it…. yikes.  I got a dollar that says a Penguins player gets hurt tonight and misses game one of round two.  Karma for not closing.

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Time to walk to get bagels and coffee with Jeff.  Tough life, this blogging (as I overdraft and end up paying $38 for my bagel and coffee.  Maybe it is a tough life.)

As a tribute to my bro, here’s the type of stuff he loves.  He couldn’t wait to have me watch this.  Jeff loves “…my brain hurts…”

2010 NHL Playoffs – The Bestern Conference

I’m picking the Sharks to win the Cup.

*waits*

AhhhhGotcha!  They suck.  Let’s make some picks.

*****

SAN JOSE SHARKS (1)

vs.

COLORADO AVALANCHE (8)

Before the season, I didn’t have Colorado pegged to be a playoff team.  Halfway through the year I looked Barry Melrose level wrong on that (y’know, the guy who didn’t think Stamkos was gonna amount to much of an NHLer?  Love the guy, but he’s building a solid reputation for his wrongitude).  By the end of the season, I had almost come full circle back to right.

Expect a much better playoff performance this year

They’ve got a ton of badass young talent.  But I wouldn’t bet on Colorado to win this series if Vegas doubled the odds and you paid for my wager.

Contrary to my “they suck” joke about San Jose to open this blog, I don’t think they suck.  I’m picking them to go deep – like, conference finals deep – but I wouldn’t pick them to win a series against Chicago or Detroit (both would be epic series), and the bad news for SJ is, both those teams happen to be in the Western Conference.  Which they’re in too.

I think you’ll see a great first round out of big Joe and crew, cause they’ll be fired up as all hell to prove themselves.  More than any team in the NHL this post-season, they know an early round exit means a bunch of people getting new zip codes in the off-season.

Colorado’s pace will be amazing, and Stastny will be money.  But with Nabokov in net, the Avs upset hopes are some of the lowest in the league this post-season. (Here comes an Avs sweep after that prediction, huh?)

PREDICTION:  SHARKS in FIVE

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CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (2)

vs.

NASHVILLE PREDATORS (7)

Shocking truth – I don’t think Chicago’s goaltending is bad as every human on Earth seems to think it is.

Youuu don't get to play, bud, sorry.

Now Washington – Washington has two horrific goaltenders.  Antti Niemi and Cristobal Huet may not be the elites of the league, but they certainly aren’t the dregs either.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s blog, Nashville – despite reaching 100 POINTS this year – was EVEN in goal differential during five-on-five regular season play.  Well that’s not very good, is it?

If they struggled to create offense in the regular season, I can’t imagine it’s going to go much better in the tighter checking post-season.  And if you could sum up the general point I’ll be making in my predictions, it’s that “teams that score by committee are f****d”.  Depth is good.  No-big-guns is bad (though I will race you to pick Hornqvist in fantasy hockey next year).

In reality, the Predators are not going to lose because of the Predators.  They’re going to lose because they’re playing a team that’s gone all-in this year.  Every chip they’ve got has been pushed to the middle, with very little regard to what happens after this season.  This equals one thing: an all-star team.

Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Kris Versteeg, Patrick Sharp, Dave Bolland, Dustin Byfuglien….. really I could just type roster names til I’m out of them.  This one won’t be close.

PREDICTION: HAWKS in FOUR

*****

VANCOUVER CANUCKS (3)

vs.

LOS ANGELES KINGS (6)

As Bob McKenzie adamantly pointed out today, the LA Kings finished two – count ‘em, two – points behind Vancouver in the standings. It’s not so much a “3 vs 6″ matchup as it is two 4.5 seeds going at it.

This is one of those series you know is going to go six or seven games, but I’m not sure why.  Vancouver is better in net.  And up front.  And on D.

Easy jokes aside, these two are full blown difference makers.

That’s not to say LA isn’t strong in all those places, because they are (101 points!).  But those Sedins have gone from point-getting and bothersome to venemous and unbelievable.  Both sides have game breakers in this one, which is why it’s going to be a blast (which, incidentally, is why Boston/Buffalo is going to be a painfully long, close series – they don’t have any).  It just so happens that the Canucks have the better ones.

Luongo finally took a step passed his “never won anything” reputation in the Olympics.  As shaky as it may have been, or whatever you may think of him, mentally, that’s huge for a guy’s confidence.  You want him in net over either of the Kings tenders, every time.

The Canucks will miss Willie Mitchell.  He’s a big part of that d-corps, but he’s not the only piece.  The Canucks will get it done, but the Kings will take a lot out of them.

PREDICTION: CANUCKS in SEVEN

*****

PHOENIX COYOTES (4)

vs.

DETROIT RED WINGS (5)

You may remember, eight or nine days ago, I wrote a column on how unfortunate (but inevitable) it was the the ‘Yotes would draw the Red Wings in the first round. 

Nothing has changed since then.

Love this picture....

{Well, one thing has – there’s the movement, started via Five For Howling‘s Travis Hair (@TravisHair) on Twitter, to have Coyote fans throw fake rattlesnakes on the ice, I think after warm-up (check out #ThrowTheSnake on twitter).  I know folks will be worried about it costing the ‘Yotes a penalty, but it rarely does after the first occurance at any given game. 

You’ll get a warning, so just don’t do it after the first “hey stop that” (if the team has half a marketing brain – and I think they do – they’ll embrace this.  They could sell them, jack the price up and cash in).  Either way, it’s a great bit of potential hockey culture down here in the desert.  I’m tellin’ ya man, the fans need something to call their own, and this can be the start of Phoenix’s first “own thing”.  I’m on board.  But anyways, back to the series….}

These are the two best coached teams in the NHL.  Babcock coached his team through a kabillion injuries and somehow got them to 100 points for the bloody TENTH STRAIGHT YEAR, while Dave Tippett took a team most people picked to finish one place behind last, and at times, teased being the conference’s best.

The Coyotes have rock solid goaltending in Ilya Bryzgalov, which was going to be their huge advantage in a playoff series.  Unfortunately for them, Jimmy Howard found his game at the NHL level, learned to battle, and got himself into MVP talk, somehow.  At the very least, he’s a Calder top two.

But here’s where I rehash that same old point – when a game needs to be broken open, Coyotes fans will bite their fingernails halfway off everytime Henrik Zetterberg or Pavel Datsyuk has the puck.  Scoring by committee isn’t impossible, you just hope that your committee doesn’t have a first round defensive opponent of Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart and crew.

At the other end, guys like Lepisto, Vandermeer and Michalek (okay, and Jovo at the defensive end) – as good as their years were – probably aren’t going to be able to stop the mix of Datsyuk/Zetterberg skill with Franzen/Holmstrom grit.

Here’s the thing.  I WANT the Coyotes to win.  I want this team to look like a great “buy low” deal for the contemplating future owners.  I want a hockey culture here.  I’m jumping in an RV with about a dozen other guys, driving up an hour before the game, getting my white out on and cheering like everyone else (yes, for the ‘Yotes).  But as a sports writer, I have to be honest.  I’d be surprised if the Coyotes won.

But then again, Coyotes fans, you may recall…. I’ve been wrong about them before.  Here’s to hoping they surprise me again.

PREDICTION: RED WINGS in SIX

*****

(Leastern Conference picks later today)

“8th Seeds, Who Wants Some 8th Seeds?”

 
White rabbits!

Anyone else say that at the start of every month for luck?  I’m gonna say my family’s been doing it for like, 15 years – the earlier you say it on the 1st, the better the luck that month.

Also, throwing perfectly good money into a well is good luck.  Mutated clovers are too.  Totally makes sense.

*****

Speaking of luck – with a little of it, could you see Calgary or St. Louis sneaking ahead of Colorado for eighth in the Western Conference?

Yeesssssss you could.

Colorado’s remaining six games see them play the Flames head-to-head once (tomorrow!  Ooo), the Sharks, the Blackhawks, the Kings, the Canucks and a freebie against the Oilers (or is it?!).

They’re up two points on the Flamers (with a game-in-hand… at-hand?), so for conversation sake, lets say Calgary beats them tomorrow.  They’d both have 89 points, and I could see Colorado being below .500 in those last five games, since, y’know, four of the five teams are ahead of them in the standings.

Weee, winning is fun!

Calgary, admittedly, doesn’t have a much easier schedule – Blackhawks, Sharks, Wild, Canucks – but all they’d have to do down the stretch is win three to catch the Avs.  Exciting stuff.

I’ve included the Blues in the hunt too – six points out with six games to go, largely because they seem to be turning it around, and you never know.  After winning three straight, they’re schedule includes games versus the Predators, the Stars, Blue Jackets, Ducks and Blackhawks.  Five wins isn’t completely impossible, and might be enough to get it done, if the two teams ahead of them act like it’s the Eastern Conference.

So here’s to a great finish out West!

As for the East….

All I’m wondering is, “the Isles are three points up on the Maple Laffs, and play Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Pittsburgh to end the season.  Could they fall far enough to steal the increased lottery odds?”

A fair question, no?

I think they can, only cause the Laffs can’t do ANYTHING right this year.

On a more relevant note, Boston, Montreal and Philadelphia all have 82 points while the Thrashers have 80 and the Rangers have 78.  What a mess (congrats to Tampa for being 3-7 in its last ten, taking the title of “biggest blown opportunity” away from the Rangers at the last second).

Montreal has one less game left, but a joke of a schedule coming home (After the Flyers they have the Islanders, Hurricanes, Maple Leafs and an SPHL team, I think).

So wait… Boston/Montreal won’t be a 1-8 or 2-7 matchup this year?  But it’s always like that….

*****

The NHL’s biggest “I can’t believe that guy doesn’t wear a visor” has to be Ruslan Fedetenko, right?  Baby face, happy guy, plays a skill game, seems afraid, gets hurt (but not injured) a lot….  Everytime I see him I’m surprised.  Who else is on this list?

*****

The NHL’s biggest “numbers-inflating roster spot” has to be A) Alex Burrows spot with the Sedins  B) Steve Downie’s spot with St. Louis/Stamkos line  or C)  ???  Whatchu got?  (Getting to wear a Capitals jersey?)

*****

The guy pumping it out in the picture below (Nick Lowe) is here for a golf weekend, then a few days at my place.  You may remember his picture from a previous blog.  In this pic, he just tied the game up with minutes left – I score on the next shift to beat North Dakota (that years version of the Sioux had Toews, Stafford, Smaby, Zajac, Oshie, Brian Lee, and was goaltended by Lamoureux or Jordan Parise), the weekend my Dad was in Alaska.  Special times.

Solid one-knee pump.

***** 

Stanley Cup Frontrunners

Contributing to the Power Rankings for USA Today each couple weeks really makes me think about where teams in the NHL are at.  These are the left-over thought nuggets from this weeks edition.

*****

Carolina - In last years playoffs, Bourne’s Blog became a forum for a quality back and forth with some of the Carolina faithful about their team (mostly because I was treating the ‘Canes like I’ve been treating Phoenix this year), and somewhere along the way I got convinced that they weren’t all that bad.  It made sense that they wouldn’t be – Eric Staal is worthy of having a team built around him, Cam Ward is one of the best goalies in the NHL, and I thought Paul Maurice was a pretty good coach.

When we did our  pre-season predictions, we got some static about the lack of Carolina love.  I had debated whether or not to include them, but we were only asked to pick division and conference winners, not playoff teams, so it made no sense to mention them.  Playoffs, yes, top team, no.

So what the f**k is going on down there?

And now the two players I mentioned before are hurt?  They’re worse than my Isles?  The Leafs?  Hit that “comment” button ‘Canes fans.  Explain yourselves.

*****

I can’t help but think that there’s about a 20% chance the Cup winner comes out of the Western Conference this year.

Who looks like a Cup threat right now?  I mean, you can say the Colorado Avalanche, but you don’t mean that.  You’re aware they’re still a “good young team”, right?  It’s okay to say that they’re legit.  Tons of up-and-coming talent.  But I don’t see a whole lot of “crap, I don’t want to play that team in playoffs” on their roster.  I do see a whole lot of “crap, I really don’t feel like playing this mid-season game, can someone get a leash on Wolski? Stastny? O’Reilly? Duchene?  CAN SOMEONE GET A BELL ON DUCHENE!??”

Name another threat with a straight face right now. 

The Sharks? 

I’d agree, if they didn’t play in the the Pacific Division, or as it’s better known, the ”try-to-gage-a-team-in-a-division-with-LA-Phoenix-and-Dallas” group. Heatley was a massive pick-up.  Fine.  He makes them the West’s best hope until Chicago inevitably wakes from it’s slumber.  But there’s still something that doesn’t feel right about calling the Sharks a Cup contender.  What does it mean that when I picture the Pacific Division, I picture a train going over some old wooden tressel bridge, only nobody knows the wood is rotten beneath?  I feel like every passing train (game?) is one closer to the utter collapse of the whole thing.  Combine that with a history of playoff failure, and it’s hard to be too sold on the Teal Trainwrecks Titans.

I know you can only beat the teams you play (the Boise State football problem), it’s just tough to tell if they’re actually good, or playing bad opponents.  But, they will be a top three seed again, so here’s to hoping that they can break the same mold they built.

How about this:  If I were to say “for a thousand dollars, will the Stanley Cup come out of the Western Conference, or the Atlantic Division?” - which one are you picking?

Atlantic Division

	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	GF	GA	Home	Away	L10	Streak
Pittsburgh Penguins	17	12	5	0	24	54	44	5-3-0	7-2-0	6-4-0	Lost 2
New Jersey Devils	15	11	4	0	22	39	33	3-4-0	8-0-0	8-2-0	Won 5
New York Rangers	18	10	7	1	21	56	48	6-2-0	4-5-1	3-6-1	Lost 1
Philadelphia Flyers	14	9	4	1	19	52	37	6-2-1	3-2-0	6-3-1	Won 4
New York Islanders	17	6	6	5	17	44	50	5-2-2	1-4-3	5-3-2	Won 1

You know what I’d pick?  I’d pick to complain that it’s NO WONDER THE ISLES STRUGGLE SO BAD. 

This is what makes the NHL playoffs so great.  It’s not accurate to gage a team based strictly on their record, since head-to-head is the only undeniable measuring stick for “who’s-better-than-who”.  In the ever-popular BCS, strength of schedule is a heavy factory in determining the best teams.  Fortunately for us, the NHL has a playoff format, so we actually get to watch the “I wonder who’s actually better” questions play out.

And who’s actually better?

The Stanley Cup Champion Penguins, my friend.  That’s not just picking the obvious – at this point in the season, it’s picking correctly.

*****

And last, I wanted to give a shout-out to the reader who read my USA Today article, found my blog, tracked down my email, then wrote me the following email, which is printed below, unedited:

“you smoke pickle”

And so, I laughed.