No More Horton or Rome in the Cup Final

 

 

New Puck Daddy: After a shellacking, it’s a lot easier to “flush it” than it is after losing a tight one

*****

So this kind of sucks: we’re in the middle of a great series between Vancouver and Boston.  After two skin-of-their-teeth wins by Vancouver, Boston came out and made a statement – they dropped an 8-1 beatdown on Chinatown (that’s Vancouver, for those of you not up on your population demographics/casual racism), with Luongo staying in the net for every goal.

But the game has been overshadowed by the Aaron Rome hit that left Nathan Horton with a severe concussion, knocking him out for the rest of playoffs.  Rome is gone too, as I’m sure you’ve heard – he got suspeded for four games – but that’s of little consequence to the Canucks who’ve already used and won with nine different defencemen in playoffs thus far.

And now, writing about that is more important than writing about the games played so far (not that there’s anything to analyze from last night), because it affects the series. My little reminder for everyone (that I tweeted) is this: between the bite and the fingers being offered up for biting and this hit, don’t lose track that of the hockey. Hits happen (legal or otherwise) in playoffs, people get hurt, and teams have to perservere. Part of winning the Cup is survival.  All the best to Nathan Horton and everything, but it’s certainly doesn’t need to be every storyline.

So here we go (don’t watch, Mom):

The hit, as I saw it, was flawlessly executed at the perfect spot on the ice…..but just way, way too late, which makes it interference and dangerous. Rome stopped backing up and planted the second Horton moved the puck, but the guy still had time to get into a third stride before getting pounded. Part of the reason I think it was so late was that Rome was backing up (as opposed to charging forward) and planting, so he has to wait for Horton to get to him. Whatever the reason, it was very late.

From experience, I (and my broken nose) can tell you that no hit is more of a shock to the system than the one where you’re gathering speed (he was crossing over) and unaware it’s coming.  Happened to me in Bridgeport, and I was fortunate to avoid the concussion; Horton wasn’t so lucky.  Had it been Rome hitting me, I probably would’ve been in the same situation, which is part of the reason I have genuine sympathy for the guy today.

That said, I think the suspension might be a little long for a late north/south hit (that’s a lotta strides to not look up once), but given the severity of the injury and what a big part of Boston’s team Horton is, I guess it sort of makes sense. If we want more serious suspensions (and we do), it has to start somewhere. You would just think they’d wait for the start of the new season to begin doing that.

{Part of it feels like a PR-safe move for the league – if Rome got back into a game while Horton is still suffering, it doesn’t look good on their ruling.}

*****

As for the actual game last night…..there’s almost no point in evaluating that one. If there were a checklist with “Canucks need to improve their…” on it, I’d be clicking “select all.” Feel free to weigh in on the Horton hit for today, but after that, I’m going to try to stick to the action as much as possible.

Game One, Winnipeg/Atlanta, Campbell/Shannahan

New Puck Daddy: The Bruins can’t win if their bottom six forwards don’t own Vancouvers

*****

Good day, hockey fans!  Lotttts to talk about today, and I’m in a writin’ mood.  Coming up: Game one of the Stanley Cup Final, Winnipeg/Atlanta, and Brendan Shannahan taking over for Colin Campbell as the NHL’s disciplinarian for the 2011-2012 season. 

Sigh….that’s so far away and this season’s almost over.

*****

Game one, Vancouver vs. Boston

This was one of those fantastic low-scoring games that are so infrequent.  When I think about game one, I think about some of the spectacular individual performances.  My top five (yes, five) stars of the game, in order:

#1 – Tim Thomas – had you put the league’s most average goalie in net for Boston in that game, just your generic Craig Anderson or whoever, the final score is 5-0, minimum.  He made huge stops early (and late, and in the middle) that kept his team in the game, and I thought his save on the Jannik Hansen breakaway hasn’t gotten nearly enough credit.  That save was soccer goalie-esque, in that he literally would’ve had to have guessed a bit to be able to snap his pads together that quickly while sliding backwards.

#2 – Jannik Hansen – This guy was everywhere.  In a game where you know the other team is going to be focusing on the other two lines, you always have the opportunity to make them pay for that, and boy did he ever.  It’s like walking a batter to get another guy, in this case Hansen and his linemates, then having that guy belt a homerun to centerfield.  He was all-around terrific, and capped it off with a sick set-up on the game winner.

#3 – Roberto Luongo – Just your average, run-of-the-mill 37 save shutout where he’s so positionally sound and ahead of the action that it looks like it’s easy.  Thomas probably makes those 37 saves if he’s in Van’s net too, only four of them become highlight-reel saves because of his chaotic style.

#4 – Raffi Torres - Scored the game-winner with 18.5 seconds left in game one of the Stanley Cup Final, after playing probably his best game of playoffs.  He created chances and played physical, which is more than he’s asked to do for the Nucks

#5A – Ryan Kesler – Makes a great play on the game-winner (including the toe-drag to stay onside) and just played his usual, horse-like Kesler game.  He looks unstoppable at times.

#5B – Zdeno Chara – Almost 30 minutes of ice and kept the Sedins to zero points.  Solid captain work there.

Read today’s column if you’re interested to hear what I think needs to happen for the B’s to win some games in this series.  The score was close, but I didn’t think the game was.

And for an update on the “Bourne proved he knows nothing about hockey” Seguin article (that was an actual comment), he’s now gone six straight games without so much as a point, and saw his ice time cut in half to six minutes.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t dress next game.  Not that I think he’s bad or anything, of course….he’s not.  That’s not why I keep dropping the updates.  I just didn’t feel like I deserved the shots I took from the PD commentariat (not here) after that piece.

Game two on Saturday, and I continue to be unable to see a way the Bruins can win, even after that close game (sorry Char).  They played the exact game they needed to yesterday and still couldn’t quite close.  We’ll see I guess!

*****

Winnipeg/Atlanta

So it’s official – the Atlanta Thrashers are taking their talents to Winterpeg.

First, as I’ve said before, I have muchos sympathy for Thrashers fans.  I know what it’s like to live in a city where hockey isn’t part of the collective identity, and other fans really crap on hockey fans who support the team despite that (it should be the opposite – you should get more credit if you’re a supporter from a non-hockey city).

There are far too many folks who’ve never been to a game in the city that they’re making fun of, let alone to the cities themselves, yet they torch away without thinking.  On those nights when there’s only nine thousand fans at a game, consider how much those fans must love the team.  In Atlanta, think of the fans that go despite knowing the building won’t be packed.  They know their team isn’t star-laden.  They’ve never seen a single playoff game.

Yet there they are, on a Tuesday night, wearing their jersey to support their team.  But it’s HILARIOUS to refer to them as the Thrashers fan and leave off the “s” because there’s only one!HAHAHAHA!!!1!!

But enough of a rant.  With that said: 

SINCERE CONGRATULATIONS to Winnipeg!  While it’s wrong to imply any one fan there will love the team more than the multi-year season ticket holder from Atlanta who writes a blog about the team, rest assured that MORE (way, way more) people will love the team there.

Hockey is a part of what makes us Canadian, like it or not, and this team was unfairly ripped out of that city’s hands fifteen years ago.  It feels right to have it back, so I’m happy for those good people from Manitoba.  You may not like their city, but you’ll damn sure like the people.

Here’s to hoping they call ‘em the Winnipeg Phoenix. The team has risen from the ashes once again!

*****

Brendan Shanahan, NHL Disciplinarian

Beginning in the 2011-2012, Brendan Shanahan is going to take over for Colin Campbell as league disciplinarian.  This is, as a general statement, awesome.

Before I explain why I think so, I just gotta say: that job has to be done by a committee (I know, I’ve said this before) of one ex-player, one ex-referee, and one ex-coach/GM/front-office guy.  It’d be like scoring a boxing match, only you know you’re getting people from different walks of the same world, meaning you’d probably reach some fairly appropriate consequence.  I have no idea why Gary Bettman is so opposed to that obvious strategy.

But if you’re going to pick one guy, they couldn’t have picked a better one to do it.  Shanahan, throughout his playing days, was a widely respected player.  On top of that, he was a nice mix of physical player and goal-scorer so I think he’ll have a better understanding than anyone about what’s across the line and what isn’t.  And, it’s great that he’s recently left the game, so he understands the “new” NHL better than someone else would.

The bottom line is, the game is evolving - speed and size are increasing while our awareness of safety is too, so it’s not an easy job.  It’s good that Shanahan is going into the job as a respected man, because hopefully that will help people respect his decisions more.  It’s a sad reality, but this job could (will?) hurt his reputation, as overly bias fans cry bias at him, until every fan base feels wronged at some point.

And that’s the bad part of him having recently played – now every suspension or fine he does or doesn’t give is going to come attached with “OF COURSE he didn’t suspend the guy that plays for his old team.” “OF COURSE he didn’t suspend his old teammate.” OF COURSE he suspended the guy on the team he always hated.” “OH SHOCKER, no suspension for the guy on Tampa because he’s friends with Yzerman.”

Shanahan won’t let those biases affect his rulings – he knows he’s under the spotlight, and more importantly, he’ll want to do a right and honest job to keep the game safe, but that won’t stop folks from lighting him up.

It’s a tough job, but someone has to do it.  I’m thinking they got the perfect man for the job.

*****

Okay, that’s a lot of words for one day!  Thanks for stopping by.

Interesting Stories From Each Playoff Series Pt. 2

 

New Puck Daddy: a look inside the pre-playoff series meetings teams have

*****

If you missed it, yesterday I wrote about the interesting stories I’ll be keeping an eye on from the five playoff series that started yesterday.  Today, I’ll be doing the same for the other three.  Without further ado….. MORE PLAYOFFS!

(2) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (7) Buffalo Sabres

Two things immediately spring to mind: the phrase “upset watch” and the Philadelphia Flyers goaltending.  If you’re as sick of hearing about it as I am mentioning it, blame Philly’s GM, not me.  It’s quite possible that the two things I just mentioned go hand-in-hand.

Let me be clear: I don’t think the Sabres will beat the Flyers.  Philly’s forwards are as deep – okay, deeper – than any other team in the NHL (Boston is in the conversation), and their defense is just too good, even with Pronger out.  Yes, they will have a tough time getting pucks behind Ryan Miller, but you may have noticed Buffalo is a seven-seed — as in, he’s been scored on before.

I’ll be watching to see if Bobrovsky can keep enough pucks out of the Flyers net to help the team avoid getting that upset seed planted in their head.  If he let’s a few shaky ones in during the series’ first contest or Buffalo wins game one…. things will be a lot more interesting.

Underlying story: What the shit happened to the Flyers down the stretch?  You want to peak at the right time, and they seemed like they were dragging their asses through a rut down the homestretch.  I’m curious to see if it was the fact that they didn’t have a meaningful game for like, two months, or if something has seriously gone awry with that team.  More reason to keep this series on upset alert.

*****

(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (7) Los Angeles Kings

You know what I’m curious about?  If there’s any plausible reason we can dig up to say LA could win more than one game.  The statement Dean Lombardi has made over the past couple years – trying to bring in a big name like Kovalchuk, Iginla, just anyone who could provide some offensive help – leads me to believe he has a pretty good idea of where they need help to win.

Then Kopitar gets hurt, and they’re left with…. Dustin Penner.

This, for the Sharks, could be like going through one of those arrow things in Mario Cart that gives you a burst of speed heading into playoffs.  As Dave Lozo told us, you either win early in round one or you don’t win the Stanley Cup (“The last 32 teams to win their first-round series in seven games have failed to win the Stanley Cup.“).  They could polish off LA early, rest up, and make a push.

Will the Kings give their fans some breath of hope, somehow, some way?

Underlying story: For me, two little stories: one, the Sharks killed it in the second half of the NHL season, so my question is, could this team be way better than most people think?  They’re still pretty stacked.

And two, Antti Niemi.  He’s taken slow but steady steps towards being one of the NHL’s elite goaltenders.  Another solid playoff run would have him cemented there for years to come.  Without being flashy, might we be watching one of the NHL’s best emerge?

*****

(3) Boston Bruins vs. (6) Montreal Canadiens

I’m excited to see if the Canadiens have any push-back in them.  I know I’ve been very outspoken about this series, but it’s for a reason – I just can’t find a reason to believe the Habs could beat the Bruins, for one simple fucking reason: the Bruins have better players.  Phew – how’s that for in-depth analysis?

It’s not even close.  And the Bruins have the most intimidating team in the league to top it off, because their tough guys can play.  They don’t have to send a brainless thug out there to get justice, they inflict pain just with the natural way their players play, and that’s no fun in a seven game series. 

Milan Lucic and Nathan Horton combined for 206 PIMS (for context, Clark Gillies never got 100 PIMS in a season), and these two combined for 56 goals on top of that.  Cammalleri and Plecanec scored a combined 41(in 15 less games) and are more one-dimensional players.

The Habs have a couple more players with Cup experience, so basically, the story I’m most interested in (much like the San Jose/LA series) is if there’s any reason to believe the Habs have a shot.  Maybe it’s that experience (I think they have four guys with Cups versus the B’s two), but thus far, I can’t convince myself that they won’t be overwhelmed in four or five games.

Underlying story: The interesting names in this series.  Can Tim Thomas play like he did during the regular season in playoffs, or will it be Tuuka Time before it’s all said and done?  Will Tomas Kaberle have a shot at his first Cup?  How will he hold up under the pressure?  Can Carey Price stay in the good graces of Habs fans? 

There’s just a lot of fun NHL stars to track in this one.  Can’t wait to see what unfolds.

*****

Night one of the NHL playoffs was as fun as to be expected.  Four of my five series winner picks won (save for Tampa), so we’re off to a good start.  I’ll check in on my gambling status early next week.  Enjoy tonight!

Zdeno Chara on Max Pacioretty

 

New Hockey Primetime: The bajillionth take on the Chara/Pacioretty hit.  I think I took a pretty unique look at it though, so give ‘er a go.

*****

Due to my upcoming and oh-so-exciting trip with the good folks at Easton hockey tomorrow, I’ve got to get a little ahead on my column writing today.  Enjoy the above piece, and if you missed hit, here’s yesterday’s on riding the bus, for Puck Daddy.

By the way, the car was deemed a total loss, so I’m back at square one.  No car, no loan, just a guy without a car.  I guess it’s time to start shoppin’!  If anyone has a black ’08 Altima coupe they wanna sell me, let me know.

*****

Here’s a little add-on read for today.

Chris Jones of Esquire linked to this interview with someone named Dave Eggers (I have – had? – no idea who that was/is), which ran on www.armchairnews.com.  It’s a long, involved read – honestly, I mostly just read his answers – but the best part that my eyes took in was his addendum. 

The full interview is here if you care to take it all in – it’s about selling out, and why saying yes is better than saying no.  To quote Jones, “Now go out and say yes. Because no is for pussies.”

It’s inspiring, biting stuff – I recommend starting about halfway through the addendum at the very least, if you don’t have time.

On The Bruins, and Game-Breakers

 

New Hockey Primetime: What factors into motivation aside from winning and cash? (Haven’t even finished it yet, let alone submitted. Gimme a hot sec, will ya? )

*****

I had a little twitter conversation with the esteemed “Haggs” (Joe Haggerty) today, the gent who covers the Bruins (and Boston sports in general) so well.  He is also kind of a fan of the Bruins, and I support that – you always get better quality work from people who care.

He expressed the idea that the East is wide open for the Bruins to take.  He’s almost right, save for Philly.  The other top teams are plenty scary, but they all have some minor deficiencies.  I just think Philly’s team might be good enough to overcome the inexperienced goaltending.

Still, it brought me to the Bruins roster, and I gave it a good once over, in hopes of finding a hole to reply to Haggs with after he picked apart the other top contenders (Philly: “goaltending.” Tampa: “lack of playoff experience after Vinny/St.Louis.” Washington: “picking up Boston’s castoffs – Wideman, Sturm – doesn’t wow me.” Pittsburgh: “No Crosby/Malkin.”)

It was damn hard to dig up any weakness - that roster is insanely deep.  I scanned down it from the top to find the first laugher of a player, and there wasn’t one.  My eyes stopped on Adam McQuaid (Darth Quaider, apparently), which is stupid, because it turns out he’s like, first in the NHL in +/- at +27.  Hardly a “laugher,” I just hadn’t noticed him before.

Anyway, the only thing I have is this: They don’t really have a game-breaker.  And my regular readers knowwwww how I loves me some game-breakers.  Never been a fan of “scoring by committee” …which is still about ten notches behind “goaltending by committee” on the Ideas That Won’t Work list.

The reason I think a team needs at least a game-breaker or  two to win is fairly understandable: in close games, defense tightens up, they’re on high alert, and they’re trying their hardest.  There’s more clutching and grabbing, and it gets more difficult for a middle of the road scorer to beat someone one-on-one and break the game open.  Ain’t nobody sleeping.  Oftentimes, these close games just drag out until overtime or a “bad goal.”

Last years Cup champs: Toews and Kane.

The year before: Crosby and Malkin.

The year before: Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

Before that: Getzlaf and Perry.

It’s just the way the NHL playoffs go (I stopped short of Carolina who really only had Eric Staal, but the one before that is right back to Tampa with Lecavalier and St. Louis).

Now, that’s not to say the Bruins can’t or won’t win the Cup.  I’ve picked them to go to the Finals since the season began.  I really like their team.  I was just trying to find a weakness.

I’m not sure Bergeron….Lucic? is going to cut it.  Krejci?  Their team’s strength is that I could play the Bergeron and ??? game for almost the entire length of their roster (the weakness might be that I’m pretty sure Bergeron doesn’t even qualify for the type of guy I mean).  But still…Horton? Peverly?  It’s a deep team, with a nice touch of grit.  Kaberle was just the addition they needed too.

I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’: if there’s anything I feel that could catch up to them it’s their ability to score goals……I say about the team who’s 5th in the NHL in goals-per-game, after a 6-0-0 road trip, the first since the Bobby Orr era. 

(Remember, the argument isn’t that the Bruins can’t score – it’s wondering if they have a guy who can do it consistently in the big moments of playoff games, AKA a game-breaker. Think back to the year the Pens won –  Crosby single-handedly won the Conference Finals, then Malkin the Finals.)

Anyway, that’s the best I could do at poking a hole in the theory that the Bruins are going to mow over the rest of the East.  You on board with that, or is there another reason we won’t see them in the Stanley Cup Final?

{Note: please refrain from just typing the name of your favourite team without evidence or argument.}

*****

Happy humpday.  The wifancee is trying out Zumba today.  Thoughts?

Savard to Toronto Rumors, Niederreiter’s Sick Junior Line

 

Too much going on to FJM Lambert’s Links today, so I’ll do that tomorrow.  Let’s dive right in:

*****

The Islanders top pick, Nino Niederreiter, saw his entire line get drafted in the first two rounds of the 2010 NHL Draft.  I’m pumped about the pick for the Isles.  Still, I wanted to get down my thoughts on being part of a deadly trio like that:

Playing on a stacked line inflates your stats like whoa. 

If you’re on a dominant line where all three guys are capable of creating, right off the bat you grab a disgusting amount of second assists that you can’t get if you’re Rick Nash-ing it all year.  Puck possession time goes through the roof, and thus, so do chances.  Your linemates can create opportunities for you where other players wouldn’t normally get them.

In reality, it’s the top guys on the line that are helping our the lesser one, and Nino is clearly one of the top dogs (Jonathan Cheechoo wasn’t driving up Joe Thornton’s assist total, Joe Thornton wasw driving up Cheechoo’s goal total). 

My point is that it’s worth asking about the third linemate that got drafted – what would his VORP be? (I love the term VORP, baseball’s “value over replacement player” – as in, if you put the most average player in the league in that spot, with that ice time, etc, how much better is this kid than that average one?  All that much?). 

Keep in mind, I know nothing about the line, any of their names, or who the third guy picked is, I’m just saying – it’s always worth looking into where good numbers come from.  Could that kid that got drafted last (still first round) carry his own line?  Maybe the Isles’ Nino is a Thornton-esque star-maker.

*****

The recent rumours, as I’m sure you’ve heard, have Marc Savard waiving his no-trade clause and heading to Toronto.  Which is so f**king bizarre I don’t even know where to start.

First, the guy just took a bit of a pay cut so he could retire as a Bruin.  On his long-term deal, this 80-90 point center is only a $4 million cap hit (less than Keith Ballard, apparently).  Why would they trade him?

If it’s to dump salary, the story goes that they’d want a pick or two and a young prospect.  As in, someone they’d have to pay at least a little bit.  So maybe after they give that guy (Kulemin, Bozak?) a couple million a year, they’ve saved a mere two million to stab a guy in the back, get a worse player, bum out the fans…. and keep paying Tim Thomas $5 mill.  There’s no other way to save that money?

If it’s concussion risk, it’s not really a risk to your payroll.  If he gets another one, he goes on long-term IR, insurance pays him and he comes off the cap (as noted by @downgoesbrown).  You can re-spend that money if that’s a bridge that needs to be crossed. 

And hey – the guy took less money to play for your team.  That has to be worth some level of loyalty, no?

Here’s my somewhat-relatable story:  My rookie year in the ECHL, I made the all-star team and spent three months in the AHL.  At the time, I made a pro-rated $45,000 when I was in the AHL, $650 a week in the ECHL.

The next season, the Isles offered me another NHL tryout, and the same contract.  I figured I was worth at least a few pennies more after proving myself in year one, so I had a decision to make.  I decided to sign a one-way ECHL contract for the team with the highest number of AHL call-ups, the Reading Royals, and go to whichever A team needed me the most (instead of limiting myself to four RW spots in Bridgeport, this let me have a crack at 120 around the league).

Problem was, Reading was packed with kids like me who knew they were a hotbed for call-ups.  Thus, they said they really wanted me to be a part of their team, but that I’d have to accept less money because of all the talented kids they’ve signed who’re trying to move up as well.  Could I work with them on that? 

Of course, the goal is to move up, not get rich immediately (bllllllogging!), so I accepted $600 a week, hoping it wouldn’t be for long.  They also got me an AHL tryout in Hershey.

On day two of the AHL tryout, I was protecting the puck, got hit, and my skate caught a rut – my leg planted while I moved, and my MCL tore.  I went to Reading to rehab it and tried to be ready for opening night in the ECHL.  I literally didn’t skate for a month, and got “cleared” (“no, it doesn’t hurt”) to get on the ice the day before the first game.

I played sparingly and poorly in that first game (hadn’t skated/run in a month).  We lost.  The Maple Leafs signed guys and sent others down.  A trickle down happened.  So Reading traded me to Idaho, one game into the season.  After I signed for far, far less to be there (I had declined two $800 a week offers during the summer, as well as some decent European options).

Suddenly, after comprimising for them, I was making less than I was worth, in a city I didn’t choose, and one that rarely saw kids called up to anywhere but their AHL affiliate…. who I wasn’t under contract with. 

This is Mark Savard.  Compromise to play where you want to, and to help a team out, and have it backfire. 

And, coincidentally, this is why you can’t be mad when players make money-first decisions - you gotta get that money.  Teams don’t owe you anything; it really is a business.  When I shattered my jaw in Idaho, I didn’t hear from their coach for over a month, until I showed up at the rink one day.  If I couldn’t play, I was of no use to them.

So make that money when you can, man, make that money.  Toronto could be the real winner here.  I feel like Savard is in a “if she doesn’t realize how great a guy you are, you don’t need her anyway” relationship.

*****

I don’t have enough time to address Kirill Kabanov, the rest of the Islanders draft, or Keith Ballard today, so here are my thoughts: Love Crazinov, NYI draft was awesome, need more details on the Ballard to Vancouver thing (as in, what else are the Canucks doing on the blueline?).

Lets have a good week team.  Goooo free agency/Canada Day Thursday!

Picks, Coyote Tix and Quick Hits

 

I did a bad job of explaining my predictions before the second round (less “bad job” and more “completely didn’t do it”), and now I have the advantage of having seen a game from each series.  So, my bad on that.  Thus, in the interest of keeping this entry from War and Peace-like length, I’ll cut to the chase on why I picked whom.

I picked Detroit, and explained it was because I can’t pick against The Zettersyuk.  I intend to do an old school, serious piece of prose about the poetic way Datsyuk plays later today.  Sheer artistry.

I picked Vancouver on the Luongo-is-better-than-Niemi tiebreaker, and because I only recently discovered that bandwagon Blackhawks fans are plutonium-level-volatile right now.  They’re entering the “holy crap, if we don’t win this year….” panic phase , where they’re studying salary cap rules at all hours of the night, and realizing that Hossa is basically becoming a one-man Buffalo Bills of the early ’90′s. WIDE RIGHT!  WIDE RIGHT!

I picked Pittsburgh because…. forget it, same reasons you did.

I picked Boston on the Rask-is-better-than-Boucher tiebreaker, and because Jeff Carter and Simon Gagne aren’t playing.  Also because Philly likes effing with it’s own fans by pretending it wants to win the cup, when really all the owners want is to get deep enough to get a few more home games for revenue. (Emery is out for the year?  It’s trade deadline time?  I have an idea…. what it we ride out this average goalie/great team thing and see where it takes us?  Haven’t tried that yet.)

I will say this about the Boston/Philly series – I would have predicted these two teams to be in the second round at the start of the year.  Surprisingly, they both struggled during the regular season, but I do actually think they’re more than capable of being competitive with the best teams.  The right eight teams made it from the East, and if you had looked at the rosters they went with for playoffs like eight months ago, you probably would’ve picked Boston to beat Buffalo, and Philly to beat Jersey.

*****

During Olympic time, I wrote a blog on Luongo the night before the gold medal game, on the topic of him making me feel slightly uneasy when he’s in net, for whatever reason.  (I took it down for fear of looking like a dissident at such a positive time.)

To me, this is his career-defining series. 

Team vs. team, Chicago and Vancouver are pretty even – maybe Chicago is a little better.  Vancouver’s advantage is supposed to be in net.  When he’s won, he’s almost always had the better team.  When he’s lost, he’s almost always had the worse team.  He’s not getting any younger, and this is one of the first occasions I can remember that it’s his series to win or lose. 

If he wants to be the player Canuck fans think he is, now is his time to shine, like the bright lights hitting his greasy hair.

*****

My buddy bought a Phoenix Coyotes playoff ticket package, which for those of you that don’t know, means you buy them right through game seven of the finals.  If your team doesn’t make it that far, you get reimbursed.

If they don’t call him soon to offer him tickets for next year instead of just sending him a cheque back (which it appears they’re going to do), it’ll be disheartening as a guy rooting for the team to succeed here.  Coyote’s marketing: he’d take the tickets, I’m telling you.  Make those calls while their season is fresh in everyone’s mind.  DO THIS RIGHT!

*****

The guys from PTI asked Dwight Howard to pick who he thought should be the league MVP, and he named two players, neither of which were Lebron.  What a hater.

*****

I’ve seen the Marc Savard reaction to his overtime winner about eighty-hundred times thus far, and I’m still 100% on getting chills.  I love that shit.  Great stick-to-crowd toss.

*****

I just found out that Jaroslav Halak made 800K this year.  Vesa Toskala made 4SHMIL.  If you believe that there’s any justice in the universe, expect a bank error in Halak’s favour, where he collects 3.2 million, then passes GO for an extra 200 bucks.

*****

Have to mention this (sorry in advance): yesterday I heard “throwing the snake” used as the all-time-funniest euphemism EVAR.  Some guy, just off the cuff: I bet Jim Ballsillie is so depressed after losing the Coyotes he just sits around “throwing the snake” all day, if you know what I’m sayin’.

*****

And last but not least, some quick thoughts on each series for ya, while I’m on my way out the door:

San Jose/Detoit:  San Jose has had success so far in playoffs with the complete and utter absence of it’s best players.  Last night, Thornton got the GWG and Heatley had three assists.  This should scare a lot of teams in the West, like say, Detroit.

Vancouver/Chicago: Don’t expect another VanCity beat down.  That Chicago team is too talented, cocky and proud to get run-over like a dog on the highway again.  They need their young gunners to act like THIS DOG and pull them in the right direction, as I fully expect them to do.

Montreal/Pittsburgh: Hey, lookit them Canadiens go. Part of the reason Detoit is so good is because they’ve always been able to get offense from skill (Datsyuk/Zetterberg) or grit (Holmstrom/Franzen).  Jordan Staal was the second part of Pittsburghs offensive equation (and the first part of its defensive one).  Washington didn’t have a second way to score against Halak, and I think it’ll really hurt Pitt that they lost a big chunk of their second style too.  Seems like Halak can make every first save in the book, and Montreal’s D is doing a great job of clearing away second chance opportunities.

Philly/Boston:  The best news for Pittsburgh, who will eventually win that series or I’m folding my blog and becoming a monk, is that this Philly/Boston series is close, so it’s going to be a war.  The teams hate each other.  It’s a battle of attrition, and the winning side is going to limp in front of the conference-finals-firing-squad on one limb.  Pittsburgh, Merry Christmas…. you’re in the finals.

*****

In case you missed it:  On Friday I uncovered footage of Ovechkin and the evil genius boss who sent him to Earth to capture the Stanley Cup.  You can watch it here.

Halak Forces Game Seven, and Hey, The Bruins Un-Sucked

 

The Washington Capitals chucked 54 shots on Jaroslav Halak, and scored once.  Which can be frustrating.

As a forward, playing a goalie who’s kinda on fire is a funny situation to be in.  And not so much “haha” funny as much as “this milk smells funny”.  What are you supposed to do?

A common problem is that as a team, you’re usually too busy patting yourself on the back for generating so many shots to realize it’s time to switch game plans (but you hope your coach isn’t).  I mean, something has to go in eventually, right?  You think you’re really taking it to your opponent.  You think you’ll break him sooner or later if you just keep it up.  Throw it on net, throw it on net, throw it on net.  But there’s something different in the mindset between trying to score and just trying to get shots, which is all dumb coaches think they want you to do (see also: “shooooooot”-yelling fans). 

In these situations, the scorer’s mindset needs to be all about “getting to the foul line”.  As in, the type of shots you need to take on a piping hot Halak aren’t three pointers or give and go’s.  Remember, if you’re Washington, giving up three pointers is YOUR goalies specialty.  You have to recognize he’s on fire and get dirty.  You need to be on the glass, getting rebounds, banging by the hoop, and putting yourself in situations where even if you don’t score, somebody has to hack you to stop you.

If the tendy can battle through that for the rest of the game and hold on, hey, sometimes you just lose to a guy who’s on top of his game.  Also, in this situation, you may want to approach your teammate Alex Semin and see if he can take a few minutes out of his day to take his head out of his own ass.  Just, y’know, as a personal favour to you.

Clearly, I underrated Montreal (overrated Washington?) when I predicted this series would be over in three.  Halak and Cammalleri are two of the playoffs top performers so far (I’ve been suuuper impressed with Cammalleri’s shot – can’t say I watched a lot of Habs games this year), but I’m still not in the “Montreal is good” camp, or the “Montreal has a chance in game seven” boat.  But hey, they’re doing their thing, so “big ups” to them.

Last thing on this series: what a great diving call on Laperriere last game.  As a perennial Lady Byng style player (yeah yeah, nothing to be proud of), that sort of thing drives me bonkers, because I can’t imagine trying to do that.  I can’t even crawl inside the guy’s head to see what that skeezy thought process must be like.  It’s just another reason to love golfers who call penalties on themselves, isn’t it?  What a rat.

*****

Okay, so I ate shit on predictions yesterday.  One for three.  Buuut, you can’t stop me from making more.  I’m like a weatherman.

*****

I was gonna bash it, but I think I like it – I’m gonna start using the phrase “after the jump” like every current writer.  More on that after the jump.

*****

Just kidding, I’m not talking about it more.

So! 

The Bruins beat the Sabres.  Here’s why the Bruins might actually not be that bad:

Boston was a top seed last year. 

Okay, they lost Phil Kessel and, um, Chuck Kobasew, but their young studs like Krejci, Bergeron, Lucic and Wheeler all have an extra year of NHL experience. Your offense isn’t that different.

Contrary to what Detroit fans would have you believe, it was Boston who “led” the NHL in man games lost to injury this year.  We didn’t see a whole lot of healthy Marc Savard this year, and the guy happens to be one of the leagues premier goal scorers.

Their goaltending actually got better.  Tuuuuukkkka Rask played over half the games in Boston this year, and led the league in GAA and save percentage (1.97 and .931%).

Maybe they’re not a top seed, but they way they played down the stretch made you forget that maybe they can be good.  It’s crazy that they made round two after how they looked at times this year.  I desperately need Montreal to get eliminated, so teams don’t think it’s possible to be THAT BAD in the last few weeks of the year and still make the second round.  Wait, Philly already did that too?  Damn.

*****

Detroit and Phoenix play game seven tonight in Glendale.  Can’t wait!

How “Too Many Men On The Ice” Happens

 

Follow jtbourne on Twitter.

G’mornin’ friends!

Some wonderful hockey last night, wasn’t there?  The Canucks and Bruins games were great…. And let’s call a spade a spade: Miro Satan went from being a borderline waste of a paycheck to worth every penny in one play. 

But anyways.  As you may have noticed, these great playoff games have been plagued by the same thing every hockey head will be talking about this morning: Too many men on the ice penalties.

So, for those of you pulling your hair out this morning going “how. the f**k. does that happen?”, I figured I’d help.

How “too many men” happens:

Where to start, where to start….

This penalty, though almost always publicly blamed on the coach (by themselves, by the commentaters) is nearly never the coaches fault.  It’s also almost never the defensemen’s fault (actually, I can’t ever remember a time when it was).

Yep, it’s us forwards.

Coaches call the next line by the center’s last name.  So for the Canucks, Sedin-Sedin-Burrows goes by “Sedin, you’re up”, and the two wingers just know that includes them, unless otherwise specified.  But specifications come often.

“Sedin, you’re up, Kesler, play left side”

Automatically, Burrows is supposed to know that means he’s not going, since he’s the usual left winger.

But sometimes, you just shut off after you hear your center’s name called, or there’s some crowd noise after the name, whatever.  So if it doesn’t register with Burrows that he’s not going, two left wingers end up jumping the boards.  In loud buildings and tight games, some coaches get super involved to make sure the guys know who’s going next, maybe by physically grabbing the usual winger and making sure he knows he’s not going.  Some coaches switch to shoulder taps and individual “you’re going’s” when the building gets crazy.

Sometimes players are just brain-dead and think coach called their line when he didn’t, and they jump.  (This happens often when your center’s last names are, say, Morelli, Pelley and Nelly, like my BCHL team from many years back.)

Then, when coach calls your line, it’s the player’s responsibility to clarify who you’re changing for.  Like, physically, out loud, clarify it with your line mates, even if you’ve been changing for the same guys all season, every shift, because coaches are always tinkering with lines and forward positions.

Burrows is a good example – he can play left or right side, so if Vigneault double-shifts him once, he may have him play left with the Sedins, but right-side when he’s out there with Kesler’s line.

So the next guy, who thinks Burrows is a left winger says “I got Burrows” and his right winger will end up having to say ”nono no, he’s playin’ right side dude.”

If that conversation never happens, Burrows comes to the bench, both wingers jump out thinking he’s their change, and voila, too many men.

There are times, of course, when it is the coaches fault.  There’s a certain level of responsibility that lies with him to clearly communicate his next unit.  {I’ve only played on one team where the head coach didn’t run the forward lines, and for those who do run them, think about how time consuming that is.  Armchair coaches love to say “I can’t believe coach made (blank) decision”, but half the game he’s looking down at namebars on the bench or his scratch sheet in his hand to figure out which personnel he wants out there.}

He has to make it clear who’s up, or he’s to blame (still, he’ll rarely admit it was his fault once the dressing room door closes.  Players have to listen closely).  But often, he’ll assign a line to go next, and only two guys will be able to change, while the third gets stuck out there (don’t change going into the d-zone, etc.).  So the coach, seeing two of the guys out there from the line he assigned, will sometimes think the change is complete, and call out the next line.

Let’s say the right winger is still waiting to get out there with his line, and the right winger on the ice changes.  It’s the coaches responsibility to notice this, and tell the right winger who still hasn’t got out with his two liney’s to ”sit this shift out, let’s start getting the next line out as a unit”.  Often, if the coach doesn’t make that fix, both right wingers who’ve been called will jump, and again, voila.  Too many men. (This usually gets caught if your team communicates well – if either right winger calls out his change, the other will usually hear that, and turn to the coach for a decision: finish this change, or start the next unit?)

There’s a million ways it can happen, but I think in general, I’ve covered the most common.  Hope I helped get your head around it.

Still, you’d love to know who caused the meltdown in the Sabres case, leading to the Bruins double OT winner.  Good rule of thumb – if you notice that the coach has sent a good player to the box (maybe one who’d normally kill penalties) after a too many men call – where he can pick who sits from the guys on the ice - it was probably that guy’s fault.  It’s priceless how often the scatterbrain who jumped the boards when he wasn’t supposed to gets chosen (in yell form) to go sit the two minutes.

Anyways, I’ll probably do some further playoff discussions in another post.  The “Too Many Men-ifesto” went on waaaayyy too long.

Happy Thursday!

(UPDATE: Upon further review, I can’t help but notice that even though I explain how it happens, I fail to mention that it shouldn’t.  A little communication goes a long way.

Also – Darren Dreger brings up a good point in his mini-blog today.  In the playoffs, matchups could be a reason why it’s happening so often.  When you’re matching the other teams top guy, the second he hits the ice, you’re supposed to change immediately to get out there against him, so you’ll often take the next forward – assuming you’re a forward – even if it’s not your exact position.  This leads to pure madness on the bench, and why some coaches shy away from trying to match lines)

2010 NHL Playoffs – The Leastern Conference

 

Washington Capitals (1)

vs.

Montreal Canadiens (8)

For whatever reason, I don’t like many teams that wear red.  For example, there’s just about nothing I want to watch less than a New Jersey/Carolina series, as attested by my coverage of said series in last year’s playoffs (blatant refusal).  To make those games worse, I feel like there’s just something grinding about watching the actual colour red play red.  Anyone feel me on that? (Mmm, aesthetically soothing Canucks colours…)

For some reason, this red vs. red battle doesn’t bother me quite so much.  Like most hockey fans, I love to watch Washington.  And Montreal, though a puny little excuse for a Washington challenger, is kinda fun to watch this year too (fun like those tiny toy cars “Hot Wheels” were as a kid).

The only way Washington’s round one series had any hope of being interesting this year was if Philly had the eight seed.  It would’ve been awesome watching Carter and Richards going buck-crazy, being playoff performers out there, scoring goals….. and still losing by football scores, like 21-14.  Thatta been great.

Not much to say here, except the obvious: Washington just has way too much firepower to lose.  If the Canadiens give them so much as a scare, I fear for Washington when they play a better team.  I rate Montreal’s chances, as a percentage, at beat-it-dont-even-try.4%

PREDICTION: CAPITALS in THREE

*****

New Jersey Devils (2)

vs.

Philadelphia Flyers (7)

I think this was a tough card for New Jersey to pull, simply because I can’t believe how badly the Flyers have underachieved this year.  I mean, 88 points, in the East?  How is that possible, with their roster?  Before the season, I noticed that their back end had good transition/powerplay guys such as Pronger, Timmonen and Carle, and I remember thinking “crap, they’re gonna score a ton of goals this year.”

Combine that with with some of the games best forwards: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Danny Briere and crew (Claude Giroux is no slouch. Hell, Van Riemsdyk is sick too.), and Philly has a wonderful hockey team.

So what the hell is going on there?

Riiiighht, goaltending, right.  I’ve seen this play before.

On the other side of the coin, I was completely surprised by New Jersey’s record this year.  Any time you have Brodeur in net, your team can’t be bad – but past him, I didn’t see a reason for them to have much success.  I knew Parise and Zajac were great, but then what? (That, and I kinda figured Elias and Langenbrunner were past their best-before dates…. guess not).  I kept waiting for this team to trip, but it never happened.

With the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk, the Devils finally have that dynamic offensive punch you always felt that they lacked in the past.  It gives them two really solid lines (though they admit they can’t find a spot for Kovy that clicks), and combined with Brodeur, it’s become pretty clear that their season wasn’t a fluke.

{I have to point this out for the millionth time – can you BELIEVE that Kovalchuk is 230 pounds?  I’d have been off by 60 if you had made me guess two months ago.}

But looking at their D -  Andy Greene, Mike Mottau, Bryce Salvador, Colin White, Paul Martin, Mark Fraser, Martin Skoula and Anssi Salmela.  I dunno… it doesn’t feel very Cup contender-y.  They have, however, done a great job at keeping pucks out of their net this year (y’know, first-in-the-league-good, at 191 over 82 games – 2.32 per), but something about them makes me nervous.  ….And it probably has something to with NJ’s (okay, Marty’s) meltdown in the final minute of game seven against Carolina last year.

If you put the leagues most average goalie in the Flyers net - say, Dwayne Roloson – I think I’d pick them to win this series.  I like their roster that much more.  But Parise, Zajac and Kovalchuk shooting on Boucher makes it a dicey situation.

In the end, New Jersey has done too good of a job defensively to lose their first playoff series, where defense and goaltending are emphasized.  I think they’ll see round two, but barely.

PREDICTION: DEVILS in SEVEN

*****

Buffalo Sabres (3)

vs.

Boston Bruins (6)

If I were the Buffalo Sabres, I would be pissed at how the final playoff seeds ended up falling.  They (like New Jersey) were so close to getting to play an obviously worse team like the Rangers or Thrashers.  But noooo, Boston and Philly had to get their shit together at the last second, and squeak in.

This sucks, you see, because Boston and Philly aren’t as horrible as they desperately tried to convince us all they were this year.

One of the few guys pushing Ryan Miller for the Vezina this year is Boston’s Tuuka Rask.  Combine that solid goaltending with Buffalo’s Phoenix-like offense (three lines of second line forwards = good team/not great), and we may see some low scoring games – especially when you consider that Buffalo has the league’s best goaltender, and Boston can’t score (206 goals all year, good for second-to-dead-last).

But, every time you think a series is going to be a defensive suck-fest, it ends up amazing.  Using that logic, this could be a thrilling, high-scoring series.  The only people I care to see play are the goalies.  I’m not saying Derek Roy and David Krejci aren’t exceptional hockey players, I’m saying that nobody is circling dates on their calendar to see them when they come to town.

I see Boston being the better team in this series, bringing the play to Buffalo, shooting, skating, hitting, exhausting themselves, and Ryan Miller chucking up the frustrating stone wall.  Then I see the Sabres working hard and smart, capitalizing on a few nice plays, (maybe a powerplay or two?), and winning games by scores like 3-2 and 2-1.  They probably win a couple of the - oh, let’s say three – games that go to overtime.

I really wanted to pick an upset here – and the Sabres and Devils are definitely both on my “upset watch” list.  But Ryan Miller is the best goalie in the world today, and that counts for something in playoffs.  I’m siding with him.

PREDICTION: SABRES IN SEVEN

*****

Pittsburgh Penguins (4)

vs.

Ottawa Senators (5)

Congratulations, Ottawa.  You finished ahead of the slovenly pack of droolers in the East.  You stayed out of the “who’s gonna make playoffs” fracas.  And in the process, you convinced me that you’re actually a good team.  I was wrong about you.

The bad news is, you’re basically about as lucky as the Coyotes in the West.

Had Pittsburgh caught New Jersey, as they should have, you’d be playing Jersey instead.  And I like your odds there.

What I don’t like, for you, is going up against the defending Stanley Cup champs, who are healthy, and about to flip it into “game on” mode.  You’re toast.

The Penguins probably slow-played their hand a little bit too much this year.  Didn’t do enough to grab the really high seed that guarantees they get to coast through round one.  Over the long haul of playoffs, having to play a good Senators team to start things off is really going to grind on them physically.

But as far as this series goes, Pittsburgh is still Pittsburgh.  Between last years Cup champion team and this year, they cut off a couple guys that were acting as anchors, and picked up depth assets in guys like Jordan Leopold and Alexi Ponikarovsky.  You take a team that’s won the cup and make them better?  They don’t lose round one.

PREDICTION: PENGUINS in FIVE

*****

So that’s all she wrote for round one, folks!  I’ll keep a running total of how my predictions went as we go (though I won’t follow how many games it took to get it done – that’s really just there to demonstrate how confident I am in the winner I picked). 

GAME ONE OF M***********G PLAYOFFS STARTS TONIGHT!

THROW.    THE.    SNAKE.

Seabrook/Wisniewski, Campbell/Bourne, Cooke/Bruins

 

Yesterday, Mike Wazowski James Wisniewski got suspended for eight games.  I guess we all really worked Colin Campbell to a climax on that one, huh? 

Whatever – if you saw the Wisniewski interview, he looked like he felt really, really bad…. that he got suspended.  I’m not saying the guy’ll play like an angel the rest of his career, but forfeiting the price of a nice house in Phoenix might give him pause for a few seconds, I would think.

I messed up by not running the hit yesterday, and by only commenting on it in the comment section.  Here’s me making up for it, if you haven’t already seen it…. which you have, so umm… move on.

While we’re discussing Colin Campbell, as we often to seem to be….

My Dad and ol’ Coley couldn’t exactly be described by the phrase “BFF’s” back when they played.  ….Oh look, two clips – and by the way, they’re awesome – the commentators crack me up.

Colin Campbell vs Bob Bourne

Ahh, that felt good and it wasn’t even me.  I love the casual nature of the color guy in this one, doing the math on PIMS.  Just another whistle between plays…

Apparently they also score fight wins by take-downs, as Campbell was the “clear winner” against Sutter.  PS, that first left from my Dad was a bomb, thank god it didn’t land, for everyone’s sake.

*****

Okay, on to Matt Cooke vs. the Boston Bruins:

What did people think was going to happen? 

The circus demonstrated how badly some people are out of touch with the realities of professional hockey.  This was the type of thing that emphasizes to the guys in the room how much certain fans and media outside that room don’t get their job.

Every night some guy has a target on his chest, which is of secondary importance to the win.  Every night. It’s a long season, and you play the same teams plenty of times over the year, hell, over a career.  And, it’s not a cliche - their jobs ACTUALLY depend on winning.  And people flew in to catch this game expecting to see fireworks while the biggest fight is their battle for eighth? 

Granted, this one happened to be an extreme case (due to it’s blatant nature, followed by no suspension), and the guys are well aware of that.  But the night unfolded the way it did to appease those that went out of their way to be a part of the “event”.  Cooke had to fight if he didn’t want to be crucified in the (for once) vendetta-aware media, and the Bruins were no different.  In no way am I saying they wouldn’t have fought if not for the media, I’m just saying it wouldn’t have gone down like a bout at Caesars Palace 1:58 in.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The fact is, these are professional athletes, and though they often act spontaneously, you don’t get to that level without some measure of discipline.  Many-a-nights you leave (frustrated) after taking a number and just playing the game.  Just because the media sniffed out the obvious “hey, their gonna be mad at that guy, right?”, this all seemed a little…. forced.  It doesn’t usually happen the quarter-second after a guy’s skates hit the ice, but eventually, guys get found.

And it’s not always a fight – a late hit, an extra shot, whatever you can get in there and not hurt your teams chances.  As soon as a guy puts his vendetta ahead of the team goal, he sits.  He may get healthy scratched the next day (and the coach will tell the media its because a guy wasn’t “effective” to avoid the circus.  Read: Avery), and if it happens enough, he may get dealt.

For those who thought they’d fight Cooke everytime he stepped on the ice, chase him around and make highlight-worthy plays on him…. with Colin Campbell and every east coast media guy there?  To quote NFL Countdown, C’mon, man.  In the end, they may not be done with him, but they aren’t idiots.  They put on the show people came to see, right away.  But they’ll find him again when it’s not mid-playoff push.  They’re disciplined.  They’re pros.

Eastern Conference Playoff Spots

 

Bear with me, hockey fans… In my last blog, I made a couple football predictions – I said the Colts would beat the Jets 24 – 17 with a late pick thrown by Sanzchez:  Colts beat the Jets 30 – 17 with a late pick thrown by Sanchez.  I also said the Saints would win on a late field goal, 31 – 30:  The Saints won on a late field goal, 31 – 28.  Damn.  I should make this a football blog.

Now that my back has been sufficiently patted, I’ll move on.

*****

Dennis Wideman, a member of my fantasy hockey team, was minus three when he got hit in the face with a puck last night.  He celebrated by returning and moving to minus four.  I’m celebrating by publicly chastising him on my blog.  Dennis Wideman sucks.

*****

Spots 6 – 13 in the Eastern Conference standings are separated by three points right now (55 points to 52 points), with the Senators in 5th, ahead of the pack by five points (60).  Unfortunately for Ottawa, they could be on the wrong side of the line come playoffs. 

If we bring them into the mix, because lets face it, they are in the mix, that means there’s nine teams vying for four spots.  Here’s the who’s out/who’s in predictions, according to my dumb self:

5th, Ottawa Senators, 53 games played, 60 points

As I just alluded to, I don’t like the Sens team this year.  They’ve got one of the best lines in the NHL with Spezza and Alfredsson, but that’s really the only leg they’ve got to stand on.  Mediocre goaltending, suspect D, and just not enough firepower to get it done (also, they have to play essentially shorthanded when Kovalev is on the ice notgivingafuck for a living).  They’ll be in the battle for the eight spot in April.

6th, Philadelphia Flyers, 51 games played, 55 points

Didn’t I just write about them being a scary low seed?  Apparently they made a push.  Philly is definitely one of the teams who’ll stick, and with the return of Emery, I think they’re looking at the five seed, just high enough to “upset” a then-staggering Buffalo or New Jersey.

7th, New York Rangers, 52 games played, 55 points

I remember thinking the Rangers would finally be one of the leagues top teams this year, but with Torterella proving himself to be more of a yeller/motivator than a guy focused on strategy and keeping his team level, I’m not sure what to think.  I can see them getting into playoffs as a seven seed, and, anytime you have a legitimate goaltender in playoffs, you’re going to stress out your opponent.  Maybe they can pull it together by then.

8th, Montreal Canadiens, 53 games played, 55 points

I’m calling them “in”, but if I’m wrong anywhere, it’s here.  I think we knew they’d be a team fighting for a playoff spot this year, so every night matters.  That means they need to stay healthy to squeak in – either way, the Capitals are going to ROLL OVER them if they earn this spot.

9th, Boston Bruins, 51 games played, 54 points

The Bruins will make the playoffs, probably as a six seed, and why not: proven goaltending, some good d-men including shut-down defender and Norris winner Zdeno Chara, and enough pieces up front (when healthy) to put the puck in the net.

10th, New York Islanders, 52 games played, 54 points

My Isles need to fight tooth-and-nail to win every possible point on every possible night, cause it’s a long-shot.  Coaching and goaltending are keeping them afloat right now, so two things have to happen down the stretch for them to have any hope (barring trading for Kovalchuk or someone else substantial):  The d-corps will have to play way over their collective head (after Streit, their D are basically all 5th/6th d-men on most teams), and the young guns (Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Moulson) need to find some way to keep/improve their pace as the point-getting gets tougher after Christmas….  It always does.  Here’s to hoping!

11th, Florida Panthers, 52 games played, 53 points

Losing David Booth buried the Panthers this year.  They’ve actually got a pretty squad over there – not many teams can afford to have a 30 goal guy miss the season (while banking six million of your teams money), especially not perennial strugglers like Florida.  Their hopes hinge on him returning sooner than later.

12th, Atlanta Thrashers, 51 games played, 52 points

Only Carolina and Toronto give up more goals than the Thrashers, and they’re talking about trading the major cog in their offensive machine in Ilya Kovalchuk.  They need Kari Lehtonen to be who he can be ASAP if they’re to have any hope.  Which they don’t have much of.

13th, Tampa Bay Lightning, 51 games played, 52 points

Tampa’s a good team.  I mentioned my “Tocchet is a bad coach” theory before, and after a little roster evaluation, I’m even more certain of this.  Lecavalier, St. Louis, Ryan Malone, Stamkos, and Tanguay can all play, while they’ve got some good role players, average d-men and good goaltending.  I see them battling for that 8th spot with Ottawa and Montreal come April.

*****

That’s all folks!  Agree?  Disagree?  Let’s hear it!