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Reflections and Predictions

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New Puck Daddy: On Luongo, and bouncing back from getting scratched

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Some reflection, before more predictions:

In the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, my predictions went—-wait.  8-0?  Can that possibly be right?

Deeeeeaaamn.  I shoulda bet on that, I guess.

I guess it’d be pretty hard to finish below .500 at this point, so I got that going for me.

And where’d we end up on the gambling?  Not where we were trying to get, team.  There’s some work to be done ahead.  (I’ll make the new bets today/tomorrow and post them.  Gamble along with me, friends!)

Bet one: Detroit Red Wings and Phoenix Coyotes will play MORE than 5.5 games

This bet was so quickly lost and so incredibly wrong they should require me to deposit more money and give it to them. 

Outcome: Detroit swept Phoenix. LOSS.

Wager: $10 to profit $5.71 ($15.71)

***

Bet two: Jordan Staal will tally more than 3.5 points

I thought this series would go long, which would mean he’d have a lot of games (and minutes) to score. I was right.  Staal ate the offensive big one.

Outcome: He had three points.  LOSS.

Wager: $10 to profit $8.70 ($18.70)

***

Bet three: The Montreal Canadiens will lose in the first round

I escaped this one, as did the Bruins, by the hair on my chinny-chin-chin. 

Outcome: B’s pull it out in overtime.  WIN.  Here comes the comeback.

Wager: $10 to profit $4.55 ($14.55)

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Bet four: Of the eight 5 through 8 seeds, LESS than 2.5 will advance

BOOM.  I even called the teams that wouldn’t make it.  Not to toot my horn, but, BLAAAAAAAAAAT /poorly blows into a trumpet.  That’s as right as I’ll ever be.

Outcome: Nashville and Tampa made it, no one else. WIN.

Wager: $10 to profit $12 ($22.00)

***

Bet five: Tampa Bay Lightning and Pittsburgh Penguins will play MORE than 5.5 games

Comback complete. 

Outcome: Series went seven games. WIN.

Wager: $10 to profit $5.26 ($15.26)

Total wager: $50

Outcome: The outcome of all my efforts were hilarious – I made a profit of $1.81.  Yes, one dollar and eighty-one cents.

I guess it’s better than moving in the other direction, though.  Time to step my game up in round two!

*****

My predictions will post on Puck Daddy, and when they do, I’ll link to it.  That contains my explanations, which I feel some of my picks need (like the length of the Washington series).  As follows, however:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (5) Tampa Bay Lightning: Washington in five (not a knock on Tampa, Washington looks gooood)

(2) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (3) Boston Bruins: Boston in seven  (Can’t bet on Philly’s goaltending.  Just can’t.  Also, took B’s to make finals, soooo)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (5) Nashville Predators: Vancouver in six (six was generous to Nashville I think)

 (2) San Jose Sharks vs. (3) Detroit Red Wings: Detroit in seven (rested vets, Datsyuk is super-human)

*****

Who ya got?

Comments

10 Responses to “Reflections and Predictions”
  1. KJ says:

    I got the same teams advancing. I say Detroit in five. Sharks showed some chinks in the armor against the Kopitar-less Kings.

  2. Nadeau says:

    Preds in 6 – Only because the playoffs need a Cinderella

    Bruins in 6- I think they got the shit scared out of them in round one and expect them to be way better now

    Sharks in 7- No Pressure this year= Can’t actually Choke

    Caps in 5- Ovechkin > Stamkos

  3. Pep says:

    Bruins in 6 if Chara is actually over whatever ailed him

    Nucks in 6 – Team is for real and it is amazing how many good teams go on long runs once they beat their bugaboo team in history.

    Wings in 7 – Less if Niemi chokes up a Finnish hairball

    Caps in 5 – too much of a team in DC and Roloson can be beat by getting in his grill and making him do his flosbury flop. (If you are too young to know what that is, google it)

    JB – As for your puck daddy piece I don’t agree totally with your assesment. I think Bobby Lou is exactly the type of player who needs a kick in the arse now and again to perform ,as opposed to coddling. And he got one in spades and came out solid in Game 7. Some guys just perform better mad and some need to be told everything is ok.

  4. Liviu Bird says:

    Does this mean that, because Detroit’s vets will get tired with having to play seven games, Vancouver should beat them in 5-6ish in the conference finals?

  5. Kitten Fisters says:

    Det in 5
    Nash in 7
    Bos in 6
    Wash in 6

  6. vx says:

    as a Pred fan, I hope youre right about Detroit. Nashville OWNS the wings.

    i think (hope?) that the canucks are ripe for plucking. physically tired and complaining about the short rest, just coming off slaying a demon in game 7 OT, and a goalie who played in that game 7…..well, BARELY good enough. An organized effort by a tight checking team is not what the nucks need right now.

    My prediction: Preds will steal game 1 and if they can get 2 out of the first 3, the canucks will lose the series.

  7. Neil C. says:

    The Preds looked bloody awful last night, I’m sure they will get better as the series goes on but wow, that was bad. My friend texted me “This looks like Vancouver is playing an AHL team with a brick wall in net”. Rinne was outstanding but that is not a long-term strategy.
    And my god, does Nashville ever play boring hockey…. Don’t get me wrong, I have a TON of respect for Trotz for getting so much out of the group he has, but holy crap is that ever a boring system to watch. Nashville has actually looked good against the Canucks this year, but I certainly hope Nashville opens up a little and tries to make something interesting happen because the games against them in the regular season were tediously boring. Last night it looked like their plan was to turtle, let their goalie save their asses all game, and hope for a couple stinkers to win 2-1 in the third. Zzzzzzzzzz……

  8. Liviu Bird says:

    Luongo’s save percentage in game 7 was better than his save percentage in every other game except the game 1 shutout.

  9. Mark says:

    With all the talk about how well Trotz does with so little, and it’s very valid, I find it interesting to look at the salary structure for their forward group. The groups dressed by both teams in game 1 of Van vs. Nsh had basically the same cap number. Yet Nashville had nobody with more than 50 points, and Vancouver was the top offense in the league. For all the fanfare Poile gets, I think that people really need to look at those forward salaries. It’s not pretty.

  10. noam says:

    van in 5 (if not 4)
    det in 7
    philly in 7 although i hope boston
    wash in 5

    man… i tried to lay down a $100 series bet on tampa in the first round, but my credit card company apparently thought it would be for the best to have some weirdo restrictions on the card, and it didn’t work with betting sites. did i mention that the odds were inexplicably 2.3 – 1 against tampa bay…? *%@#*@#()(

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