Isles Playoff Hopes “KO’ed”, Stanley Cup Betting OddsShareThis
We’re postponing today’s scheduled mind-dump for one fun thing and a second not-so-fun thing.
Fun thing: checking out the NHL’s Stanley Cup Betting Odds
Not-so-fun thing: discussing the Islanders injury problems. Yes, before the season starts.
Before we get to that though, I had a friend of the blog write me and say he feels like he’s missing a lot of my best stuff because (A) I don’t update the headers at the top of my blog, like, ever, and (B) If I link to my daily article, it’s all the way at the bottom of the blog. So basically, my (lazy) solution is that from now on, as soon as you open a blog, the first thing you’ll see will be my column from that day. For today, they’re right here:
USA Today: Pre-season predictions (and the jinx goes too……)
Puck Daddy: The Evolution of Coaching
Let’s get the Islanders tear-fest over with to start….
Fuck. Are you kidding me? The Islanders have lost both of their assistant captains to major shoulder surgeries before the puck has even dropped on game one.
Mark Streit is out FOR THE YEAR on this piddly, every day scrimmage bump from 30 goal scorer Matt Moulson:
(It’s at the start of the video)
…and Kyle Okposo is listed as “out indefinitely” with his own shoulder deal. Not sure what happened to him, but this is extremely bad news - temporary reasons aside, when you start having shoulder problems that young, it can be a lonnngggg career full of recurring injuries. My buddy (and country music star, buy his album!) Chad Brownlee pretty much hung them up because his shoulders were such a wreck.
Honestly, I’m heart-broken by those two injuries for two reasons:
One, I harboured real hopes that Islanders could be sneaky good this year, like Phoenix last year. They were looking like a team coming into their own, with some nice pieces in place. I was even thinking they could sneak into playoffs if they could just get some breaks. By “breaks,” I didn’t mean limbs.
And two, because the team just isn’t deep enough to lose their only all-star from last year (Streit), as well as a guy (Okposo) who was on the fast track to becoming one of the top all-around effective forwards in the league. I mean, to be that strong and talented, that young? He’s my fave guy on Long Island right now, so I’m super bummed about him going on IR. I seriously thought he was going to have a stat-splosion in 2010-11.
I just don’t see any way the team can maintain playoff hopes if Kyle is out for an extended period of time, unless Snow gets aggressive and tries to patch the holes.
One more thing, before we move on – in quick defense of my Hockey News piece today, about which I got some heat from a couple Islanders fans: If you read my piece, you’ll see that I asked for an addition (help for Tavares), and made no mention of subtractions (THE REBUILD! THA REEEBBUIILLLLDDDD!). Nowhere in there do I suggest we trade any of the core guys from The Rebuild (there’s some fat to trim at the bottom of the roster still, I promise).
The Penguins were horrible and “rebuilt,” but if you remember it took some acquisitions to put them over the top. They didn’t exactly draft Sergei Gonchar. If Isles fans recall, Matt Moulson wasn’t a draft pick either – they signed him because they thought he could contribute offensively (and boy did he ever). You need these additions to make your rebuild complete.
Stamkos had studs to work with on his line, and that inflated his stats – Martin St. Louis drew coverage and made plays that created opportunity for Stamkos. My point is, right now Tavares is making plays and creating opportunities for Moulson and other linemates. The Isles need someone to do that for him if he hopes to develop into the offensive juggarnaut we all know he can be.
And as for the “but who’s available?” question: There were plenty of players they Isles missed out on this summer by being cheap, which inspired the column. The help doesn’t have to come immediately (though after the KO thing, it feels more pressing), but whether that means cashing in at the deadline by trading picks (we have enough “potential” already) , or signing players next summer, John Tavares can’t be a one-man show in circus tent of hopefuls for much longer.
The following are the odds in Vegas (courtesy Vegas Insider.com, hat-tip to reader Andrew) on teams to win the 2011 Stanley Cup. Lets discuss.
|ODDS TO WIN THE 2011 NHL STANLEY CUP FINALS|
From his email:
“Aren’t the Caps and Pens at 6:1 just a horrible bet? If the Pens didn’t improve greatly over the summer, I’m not sure I like them at 20:1. (Bourne: Yup, anyone at 6:1 just isn’t worth your gamble)
Isn’t any team at 6:1 (save for the Oilers in the 80s and your dad’s teams in the 70s) a horrible bet? (Oops, you were going to say that, I see)
I like Boston at 18:1 and Philly at 14:1 and Buffalo in a long-shot at 30:1 .” (I like Boston more than Philly – better goaltending, better odds. No reason to believe Buffalo will be better than last year, is there?)
Great email, thanks.
Off the top, I gotta say, I don’t like any of these bets, since I feel like the rewards are too low. You kiddin’ me? I NAIL a $20 pre-season prediction on the Roberto Luongo and the Canucks overcoming the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals and 24 other teams, and you give me $240 bucks back, a $220 profit? Eat me. You should get 50-1 odds on something like that, minimum.
But for the fun of discussing it, here are my thoughts: The three best and worst bets, as a balance of chance-to-win versus getting-a-worthwhile-payout.
New Jersey at 15-1
Tampa Bay at 35-1
St. Louis at 45-1 (but LA is 18-1?)
San Jose at 12-1 (fourth best team in their conference)
Montreal at 25-1 (possibly the worst bet you could make)
Florida at 80-1 (dead money)
What do you think?