Buy and Sell: Some NHL Teams As Stocks
Posted by jtbourne on March 2, 2010 · 11 Comments
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Snap back to reality, and just like that, the multicolored rings, skin-tight lycra and Giant Inflatable Beavers are a thing of the past. Last night, the puck dropped on Colorado – Detroit, and some very important points changed hands.
Before last nights NHL game, I was seriously contemplating putting a chunk of money down on Detroit, but simply don’t have a large chunk of it, which makes putting it somewhere kinda difficult.
I once heard that the NHL, gambling-wise, is the most predictable of the major sports. That is to say that, for the most part, the good teams are usually the good teams, and Columbus will flouder in perpetuity. I almost made that bet, because there’s still some inevitable leveling that needs to happen for the NHL season to get back to normal, and two teams played last night that moved in the directions they’re probably going in the second half.
And that’s no knock on Colorado – I believe in them a lot more than a few of the other surprise teams – it’s a testament to Detroit’s being-Detroit-ness, and having too much team to miss the playoffs. Combine that with the now-healthy/running-out-of-time factor, and picking against the Wings (who have a rested goalie) down the stretch is madness.
Here’s five teams (as stocks), and I’ll letcha know what to do with your money!
Detroit:
As I just mentioned, they’re decent. Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Fransen, Tomas Holmstrom, Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom, Nick Kronwall and the discovery of Jimmy Howard are the oh-so obvious reasons why (oh, and that Babcock guy). They haven’t been healthy, and haven’t had a chance to be “them” yet. BUY! BUY!
Phoenix
I wrote an article at the start of the year for the Arizona Republic trying to defend the fans lack of attendance here. My defense for them was, the team has sucked, sucks and will suck (you can teach English as a second language using that sentence, PS). It turns out that that wasn’t a very smart angle to take upon moving to Phoenix, as it’s made getting credentialed in the press box a skosh harder, only made worse by the fact that I was horribly, horribly wrong.
So to take the angle I’m about to take is not something I want to do. It’s just…. look, Coyotes fans: Your roster has to catch up to you eventually, but that’s not a good argument for you because you love your roster. Try this on: your d-corps is playing over their heads out of this world (leading the NHL in goals by d-men, really?). They’ve done great up ’til now. But Anaheim is about to get a bunch better. Detroit is too. So is St. Louis. Then you’ve got San Jose, Chicago and the rest of the conference to contend with.
The problem? 11 of your last 15 games are on the road (I want to say nine in a row at one point). I’m not sure how far I expect the fall, but it’s definitely out of home ice advantage. So sorry, sell. (NOT LITERALLY, BALSILLIE, PUT YOUR WALLET DOWN!).
Anaheim
As Hiller showed with the Swiss in the Olympics, he’s the real deal. Anaheim did a great thing in committing to him. What they haven’t done great this year, is win. I’m sure last year the system of finish eighth then reveal your true colours isn’t exactly the game plan, so I think we’ll see them revealved a little sooner this year. San Jose is praying I’m wrong – they see the potential 7/8 seeds as Detroit/Anaheim and are already packing for an early summer. Buy yourself a little bitta Duckstock.
St. Louis
Since Davis Payne’s arrival, St.Louis has been 11 – 8 – 3, not exactly setting the world on fire. But any team that’s leaning on a foundation of David Backes, TJ Oshie, Eric Johnson and an under-achieving goalie can get itself righted. They’re young guys, for sure, but they’re gaining experience and confidence as they go, so buy, BUY, BUY!
Buffalo
Down the stretch, I’m less trusting of the teams that have blown expectations out of the water, because there’s a reason people didn’t pick them to finish that high in the first place (looking at their roster, how can they be this good?). People knew Ryan Miller was good, but “world’s best” good? They may falter because they use this guy for not just a crutch, but a walker with tennis balls on the front to slide around on. (Would you rather finish fourth with a burned-out Miller, or sixth/seventh with a rested one? They should let him chill down the stretch a bit). Miller has, in the past, started much better than he’s finished, because he’s a slight guy who gets overplayed and worn down. Look for reality to set in a bit for the Sabres, sell!
Worth Mentioning:
I think the Kovalchuk trade was huge for the Devils – I’d be picking them to drop without that move. But there’s another reason why it’s tough to pick them to drop: The bottom half of the Eastern Conference is horrible. Just horrible. Atlanta, Florida, Carolina…. there’s just too many free wins for the boys at the top to pick teams like NJ to drop.
I’d mention the Isles as a team headed south if there hadn’t already set up permanent residence there (Hey, Ricky’s hurt!) ….2-8 in their last ten (horrible prediction – the Isles finish in the bottom five, get crazy lucky and win the draft lottery, then a few months later trade some sparklingly talented kid for draft picks cause they don’t actually want to have to pay too many good players).
As for penny-stock moves, I think you’ll see Tampa Bay and Toronto finish the season stronger than the first two-thirds.
So there ya have it! Where am I a horrible idiot (Jim Cramer from Mad Money), and where am I an awesome genius (Justin Bourne from Bourne’s Blog)?
*****
Tomorrow I’ll be live blogging trade deadline day with the team at Hockey Primetime.com (here, on my blog), from like 9:30 a.m. (EST) til forever. I’ll be on a few radio shows. I’ll be texting my friends that play for dirt. Come by and say hi!
I'm a hockey player turned writer. After playing for Alaska Anchorage in the WCHA (NCAA), I carried on with an NHL tryout (New York Islanders in 2007) before spending a couple seasons in the AHL/ECHL (last year was 2008-09). My father, Bob Bourne, won four Stanley Cups with the Islanders in the '80's, as did my fiancee's dad, Clark Gillies. I'm now the web editor for theScore's hockey blog "Backhand Shelf."
Some day, the Wild will be good enough to make a list like this – even if you would yell, at the top of your lungs, SELL! Ok, maybe not. A good hockey team in the State of Hockey? Yeah, Minnetonka HS.
I may be showing my phoenix colours but I think you’re selling them short here. Miller just got done proving a hot goalie can go a long way to balance up weaker D, so here’s hoping Bryz keeps up the stellar play so far (bar the occasional egg). A 4th/5th seed is very possible.
Might I point out your confidence in Anaheim is based solely on another goalie, Hiller. No reason Bryzgalov can’t be as big a factor in the desert.
Nah, it’s more than Hiller for Anaheim – I just think they’ve underachieved and are due. Which, unfortunately, put the ‘Yotes on the side of my guesswork. Dave Tippett’s a great coach, and Bryz is a great goalie, so you never know how long a team can ride that out!
Bob Costas closing ceremonies comment about ” the always enjoyable giant inflatable beavers” was hilarious!
on the plus side, it seems that Versus has taken a cue from the olympics and is showing at least one game a night all week. Tonight is a two-fer. Very awesome. However, tonight they are showing Philly-TB, when Pitt visits Buff. Evidently they decided they dont want THAT high of ratings. I mean, a rematch of Sid the Kid agaisnt Miller? Oh well, guess i get to watch some hockey at least.
Oh, and in case your wondering, the Alaska Aces got outshot 44-13 the other night. NOT a good season here in Alaska for UAA OR ACES…sigh…
Agree – we were laughing out loud about Costas’s shoutout to the beavers!
I dunno about the “hockey is predictable” theory, because doesn’t it disregard the “a hot goalie can carry a team” theory?
I’ll be spending tomorrow in bed with my head under the covers. I HATE deadline day.
That’s sweet re: versus and increased games. It’s funny, I wasn’t really on board with the whole “maybe US should win because the game will maybe get more popular” but after hearing David Letterman talking about watching the game I have changed my mind. It’s so cool to here hockey, and U.S. hockey, get some credit in places neither one gets mentioned. Ryan Shannon had a good quote, basically that after the World Juniors and their showing in the Olympics, U.S. hockey is impossible to ignore now.
Stock choices look good! I’m still waiting for Phoenix to come back down too. I don’t think they are a bad team but they would be a great team to play in the first round in the West. I’d throw a BUY in there for the Flames even if they do have 9 scoring wingers now. Is it too early to put a BUY on the Leafs for next season??
airborne moose, miller has the night off tonight, so it technically wouldn’t be a rematch of crosby miller
I’m betting the Leafs are a SELL! kind of team, but if their stock crashes, I’m going down with them.
Hear about the Chelios signing!??! Hope he somehow makes it up to the NHL this year, that’d be great.